funny - of those, i wouldn't go near 10 of them with a 10ft pole.
Craig Turnbull
- Thread starter Kennethkohsg
- Start date
funny - of those, i wouldn't go near 10 of them with a 10ft pole.
I reckon thats because your investment strategy will be different to CB's. It's one's strategy that determines where & what to purchase.
That was my understanding of his strategy also.
Latest Investor Update
Went along to his Investor Update last night to have a listen to what Craig Turnbull thinks of the REing world. There were about 70 odd people there, about the same as his last update night. I settled down and got comfy with my pen and paper ready for note taking.
Regarding the Perth market he is of the opinion that we are well and truely in the upswing, at about the 8 to 8.30 mark.
Leading indicators were:
Trends across Australia were:
He was very bullish on China having lived there for 6 months in 2011 and speaking to government officials. He was told that the economy has been slowed on purpose from 9 to 7%. China expected to have 700M people in cities by 2030, that's an extra 350M over the next 18 years. Mentioned that is the equvalent of building the infrastructure for Australia each year for the next 18 years!!!
Mentioned the iron ore price and stated that at $180 the Chinese were losing money and at $80 to miners were losing money and he thinks that it wil settle at around $120, but there will be blips like the one recently as the Chinese turn off the buying.
Then he moved onto the Pilbara and was very bullish on this (which intrigued me a bit as he never had been so much before but then it became clearer, more on that later). Mentioned things like Newman expanding from 8000 to 15000 people and was glowing on the rental returns up there. He expected another 10 to 15 years of growth, just not sure how much (my opinion is that it might not be as much as previous years as the government releases 1000s of lots in PH/SH and Newman) So many wide eyed people there and then I was listening intently to the discussions between attendees and Craig's little helpers for the night, MACRO Realty, at the back of the room at the break (I always like listening to what people have to say, never like making myself sound stupid by opening my mouth prefer to leave that to others and listen intently on the received advice)
Then it clicked why he might have been pushing the Pilbara (as an aside I think it IS still a good place to make money, just that the growth in rents and CG might start to ease with land releases). MACRO Realty are into the Pilbara and it appears they are agents for developers up there. Surprise, surprise. Never expect something for nothing. One of the MACRO guys even sounded like he was developing land up there.
Anyhoooo, that was during a 20 minute break and then onto part 2 of the evening.
Craig again emphasised the implication of R30 zoning and above in the R-codes and mention LGA to consider:
Then went on to list his top 10 suburbs for the next 12 months:
Finally he rattled off some research undertaken by BIS Shrapnel (shudder) on housing supply. The shortfall expected in the next few years in Perth are:
This backed by about 1000 people per week net coming to WA.
All, in all, a good night. Nice to know that my thoughts, research and reading of the economy were much aligned with an expert in the industry.
Went along to his Investor Update last night to have a listen to what Craig Turnbull thinks of the REing world. There were about 70 odd people there, about the same as his last update night. I settled down and got comfy with my pen and paper ready for note taking.
Regarding the Perth market he is of the opinion that we are well and truely in the upswing, at about the 8 to 8.30 mark.
Leading indicators were:
- 61% of sellers now dropping prices (down from 72% last year)
- avegrage discount id now 3.4% (down from 6.8% in the June quarter)
- Investors up 3% to 15% (about 35% at the peak)
- FHB up 2% to 27% (about 30% at the peak)
- Median up $8K to $475K
- Selling days down to 73 (compared to record low of 54 in 12/09)
- $450pw rent
- Stock 10,467 and dropping
- Vacancy at 1.8%
- Sales up 12.6% on last quarter (mentioned that 40% of the year's sales occurred in the last quarter of the year)
Trends across Australia were:
- trend towards units (smaller 1 & 2BR units in cities)
- 80% of sales < $600K
- 5% of sales > $1M
He was very bullish on China having lived there for 6 months in 2011 and speaking to government officials. He was told that the economy has been slowed on purpose from 9 to 7%. China expected to have 700M people in cities by 2030, that's an extra 350M over the next 18 years. Mentioned that is the equvalent of building the infrastructure for Australia each year for the next 18 years!!!
Mentioned the iron ore price and stated that at $180 the Chinese were losing money and at $80 to miners were losing money and he thinks that it wil settle at around $120, but there will be blips like the one recently as the Chinese turn off the buying.Then he moved onto the Pilbara and was very bullish on this (which intrigued me a bit as he never had been so much before but then it became clearer, more on that later). Mentioned things like Newman expanding from 8000 to 15000 people and was glowing on the rental returns up there. He expected another 10 to 15 years of growth, just not sure how much (my opinion is that it might not be as much as previous years as the government releases 1000s of lots in PH/SH and Newman) So many wide eyed people there and then I was listening intently to the discussions between attendees and Craig's little helpers for the night, MACRO Realty, at the back of the room at the break (I always like listening to what people have to say, never like making myself sound stupid by opening my mouth
prefer to leave that to others and listen intently on the received advice) Then it clicked why he might have been pushing the Pilbara (as an aside I think it IS still a good place to make money, just that the growth in rents and CG might start to ease with land releases). MACRO Realty are into the Pilbara and it appears they are agents for developers up there. Surprise, surprise. Never expect something for nothing. One of the MACRO guys even sounded like he was developing land up there.
Anyhoooo, that was during a 20 minute break and then onto part 2 of the evening.
Craig again emphasised the implication of R30 zoning and above in the R-codes and mention LGA to consider:
- Bassendean/Bayswater
- Belmont
- Swan
- Armadale
- Gosnells
Then went on to list his top 10 suburbs for the next 12 months:
- Hillman
- Medina
- Maylands
- Gosnells
- Belmont
- Queens Park
- Armadale
- Maddington
- Thornlie
- Kewdale
Finally he rattled off some research undertaken by BIS Shrapnel (shudder) on housing supply. The shortfall expected in the next few years in Perth are:
- 2011 2300
- 2012 16900
- 2013 33800
- 2014 46000
This backed by about 1000 people per week net coming to WA.
All, in all, a good night. Nice to know that my thoughts, research and reading of the economy were much aligned with an expert in the industry.
Great take HotRod. I was there also. You must be good short hand note taker? Either that or you recorded on phone
I didnt bother taking notes as Craig emails the nights note/coverage.
Thanks for posting.
I've secured, some months back, the Southbank landbanking opportunity via my SMSF. Money for jam.
I didnt bother taking notes as Craig emails the nights note/coverage.
Thanks for posting.
I've secured, some months back, the Southbank landbanking opportunity via my SMSF. Money for jam.
Thanks for the summary HotRod, Brisbane seems to be on a roughly similar trajectory to the Perth leading indicators mentioned, the fundamentals are on the improve in the background.
We do have an abundance of good luck in this country, just hope we are able to translate into wealth for future generations.
We do have an abundance of good luck in this country, just hope we are able to translate into wealth for future generations.
Great take HotRod. I was there also. You must be good short hand note taker? Either that or you recorded on phone
I didnt bother taking notes as Craig emails the nights note/coverage.
Thanks for posting.
I've secured, some months back, the Southbank landbanking opportunity via my SMSF. Money for jam.
Bugger, never thought of the phone.
Was using the old analogue system.
Went along to his Investor Update last night to have a listen to what Craig Turnbull thinks of the REing world. There were about 70 odd people there, about the same as his last update night. I settled down and got comfy with my pen and paper ready for note taking.
Regarding the Perth market he is of the opinion that we are well and truely in the upswing, at about the 8 to 8.30 mark.
Leading indicators were:
- 61% of sellers now dropping prices (down from 72% last year)
- avegrage discount id now 3.4% (down from 6.8% in the June quarter)
- Investors up 3% to 15% (about 35% at the peak)
- FHB up 2% to 27% (about 30% at the peak)
- Median up $8K to $475K
- Selling days down to 73 (compared to record low of 54 in 12/09)
- $450pw rent
- Stock 10,467 and dropping
- Vacancy at 1.8%
- Sales up 12.6% on last quarter (mentioned that 40% of the year's sales occurred in the last quarter of the year)
Trends across Australia were:
- trend towards units (smaller 1 & 2BR units in cities)
- 80% of sales < $600K
- 5% of sales > $1M
He was very bullish on China having lived there for 6 months in 2011 and speaking to government officials. He was told that the economy has been slowed on purpose from 9 to 7%. China expected to have 700M people in cities by 2030, that's an extra 350M over the next 18 years. Mentioned that is the equvalent of building the infrastructure for Australia each year for the next 18 years!!!
Then he moved onto the Pilbara and was very bullish on this (which intrigued me a bit as he never had been so much before but then it became clearer, more on that later). Mentioned things like Newman expanding from 8000 to 15000 people and was glowing on the rental returns up there. He expected another 10 to 15 years of growth, just not sure how much (my opinion is that it might not be as much as previous years as the government releases 1000s of lots in PH/SH and Newman) So many wide eyed people there and then I was listening intently to the discussions between attendees and Craig's little helpers for the night, MACRO Realty, at the back of the room at the break (I always like listening to what people have to say, never like making myself sound stupid by opening my mouth
Then it clicked why he might have been pushing the Pilbara (as an aside I think it IS still a good place to make money, just that the growth in rents and CG might start to ease with land releases). MACRO Realty are into the Pilbara and it appears they are agents for developers up there. Surprise, surprise. Never expect something for nothing. One of the MACRO guys even sounded like he was developing land up there.
Anyhoooo, that was during a 20 minute break and then onto part 2 of the evening.
Craig again emphasised the implication of R30 zoning and above in the R-codes and mention LGA to consider:
- Bassendean/Bayswater
- Belmont
- Swan
- Armadale
- Gosnells
Then went on to list his top 10 suburbs for the next 12 months:
- Hillman
- Medina
- Maylands
- Gosnells
- Belmont
- Queens Park
- Armadale
- Maddington
- Thornlie
- Kewdale
Finally he rattled off some research undertaken by BIS Shrapnel (shudder) on housing supply. The shortfall expected in the next few years in Perth are:
- 2011 2300
- 2012 16900
- 2013 33800
- 2014 46000
This backed by about 1000 people per week net coming to WA.
All, in all, a good night. Nice to know that my thoughts, research and reading of the economy were much aligned with an expert in the industry.
Thanks HD.
Does CT still present on radio? Have not been following him for a while now, always good to find out what some of the gurus are up to.
I do recall he purchased many blue chip properties in Melb during their last boom, wander if he off loaded any off these??
I personally think you can not go wrong with development sites at the right price if the figures stack up, can build up a portfolio alot quicker.
Cheers, MTR
Been off radio since he left Perth.
With the mods to the R codes in WA for R30+ zonings, it opens up more opportunities for small developers. Unfortunately, councils appear not to be supportive of it and continue to assess under the old R codes.
R40 lots on 1000m2 lots near transport hubs/employment nodes would be very exciting under the new scheme. You could 600m2 of housing (in all sorts of combinations) up to 2 stories in height. Could have six 2x2 units each about 100m2 covering only 300m2 of the site, or something like that. Leaves a lot of space on the remainder of the block.
Can see this happening around train stations in Perth, particularly places like the Maylands town centre where there is both a station and a shopping/employment node.
Quite exciting really.
He's having another 2hr evening, this time on CF+ in the Pilbara.
Details here...........
Info & Registration
Interesting to hear his perspective.
But I guess it might be a case of "when the spuikers get in, it's time to get out".
Guess I'll go and see.
Details here...........
Info & Registration
Interesting to hear his perspective.
But I guess it might be a case of "when the spuikers get in, it's time to get out".
Guess I'll go and see.
Got my invite, look forward to your update!
He will more than likely also promote his Southbank Estate Development in Southern River.
I used my SMSF to purchase into it. Made an immediate 100% unrealised profit plus what ever it attains in CG when development occurs within 3-5 years time. No outgoings either until then as there is no council or water rates until titles are produced.
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