Declining Immigration Flow Into New Zealand VS Its Impact on the KIWI Housing Market

[Kennethkohsg]

Dear All,

1. It was reported in the Western Australian Newspapers today that

"More than 40,000 New Zealanders have been lured to Australia during the past year in what is the biggest exodus for a decade, new figures show.

During the same period only about 13,000 Australians migrated across the Tasman, leaving a net loss of about 26,500 from New Zealand.

New Zealand’s main opposition National Party said the figures were worrying.

“Clearly more and more New Zealanders are voting with their feet as they find Labour’s high-tax, government-knows-best policies are leaving less opportunity for the future than they see in Australia,” National’s migration spokesman Lockwood Smith told the paper.

The figures show there was a total net migration to New Zealand of just 300 people in October.

New Zealand’s low population growth has been credited with taking heat out of the housing market and shop spending."

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=28&ContentID=47852

2. What are your own thoughts and views regarding:

a. the recent increased emgration into Australia by the KIWIs.

b. the rapid decline in the nett immigration into New Zealand over the last few years,

c. the impact of this immigration on both the Australian and New Zealand housing markets.


3. For your further discussion, please.

4. Thank you.


Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[alexlee]

OK, so more kiwis moved to Australia than Australians moved to NZ. What about Kiwis moving to other countries, and people from other countries going to NZ?
Alex

 

[ani]

Here is the latest population stats for NZ showing a 1% increase in the last year.

http://www.stats.govt.nz/products-a...tional-population-estimates-sep07qtr-hotp.htm


That article sounds like a normal NZ-Aus beat up

 

[Tim]

Only 8300 people from other countries moved to NZ last year according to the report

 

[alexlee]

No, it says NET migration was 8,300 people. If you assume 40000 kiwis moved to Oz and 13000 aussies moved to NZ, that means NZ received a net of about 35,000 people from other countries.
Alex

 

[Norwester]

Kenneth

Uhhmm........many of our sheep no longer need shearing due to nervous disorders?

Thong sales are up..................................?

Many confused sales people who are wondering what chilli bins are?

Sorry, can't be serious right now.....too many beers.



ciao

Nor

 

[ani]

I think you really need to look at the percentages rather than numbers as there is a huge diff in population between NZ and Australia.

Can't find stats for Aus for Sept 07 but at March Aus had a population increase of 1.49% for the previous yr- biggest since 1990 ish.

So I personally don't see a huge difference between the countries

 

[lizzie]

i think many intelligent new zealanders are finally getting sick of the minorities dictating to the governement ... nz should be riding a boom the same as australia but just can't seem to get their act together. there is a real "victim" mentality in new zealand at the moment.

disclaimer: this is an outsider view from an australian who has nz family and visits twice a year.

 

[NedKelly]

\

“Clearly more and more New Zealanders are voting with their feet as they find Labour’s high-tax, government-knows-best policies are leaving less opportunity for the future than they see in Australia,” National’s migration spokesman Lockwood Smith told the paper.

Maybe Aussies should take note of this before voting on Saturday.

 

[alexlee]

Does anyone think Labour would increase tax rates? Seriously?

 

[MichaelW]

Kenneth,

This is just a general observation, but it seems all of your posts lately have been of a negative nature. It seems that you are gripped by fear, and that every headline you read seems to support your conclusions that markets around the world are over-heated and that we're in bad financial shape.

Are you trying to challenge your fear-based beliefs, or are you trying to bring others into your sense of fear? I think you are wrong to hold that view and have posted in several threads why I think this is the case, but it seems you are holding strongly to your opinion that all markets, shares and property, are set to topple.

I might be wrong, and if so I apologise, but I think you should step back and do some personal introspection as to where your thinking is at, and how you can turn that negativity into a positive investing mindset. I assure you that there are a lot of investors out there right now making a motza in their investing endeavours. I personally am extremely excited about my short term prospects and how rapidly my wealth accumulation is expanding. But you need a positive mindset to achieve this against the current economic backdrop.

I start a new thread about how Sydney sets a record price per m2 on a unit sale in the toaster, and you start threads about how bad the housing environment is. There is a disconnect here...

Cheers,
Michael.

 

[NedKelly]

Does anyone think Labour would increase tax rates? Seriously?

They have already said they would scrap the tax rate reduction for the top tier to give every school kid a laptop. Seriously? Yes, for sure.

 

[lizzie]

and what about those ones that already have a laptop? do we get a cashback?

i would take seriously "any" party that implemented or promised to implement what they believe is required (depending on what side you're on) over the enitre 3 year term, instead of suddenly find money and issues during the 3 weeks leading up to an election.

but - yes - apparently nz is in a not-so-good state because of their labor government's spend attitude.

 

[Kennethkohsg]

Kenneth,

This is just a general observation, but it seems all of your posts lately have been of a negative nature. It seems that you are gripped by fear, and that every headline you read seems to support your conclusions that markets around the world are over-heated and that we're in bad financial shape.

Cheers,
Michael.

***************************************
Dear Michael,

1. I'm not sure about you and your own investing strategies/perspectives.

2. However, I personally believe that I am presently having a "balanced" view of the various housing markets in Australia as well as the wider political-socio-economic perspective of what is truly going around the world and around Australia;- though there is still a lot more things for me to discover for myself and to learn from other learned members like your goodself.

3. I conduct my own personal research and read the news real time for the accuracy and reliability concerning the long term basic fundamental marco picture both within and outside Australia, before zeroing in for the short-medium term investing opportunities/perspectives.

4. Long term wise, overall, I am still optimistic about Australia in general and about the WA/Perth housing markets in particular, though I am not sure as to how the Perth/WA property market will actually evolve out in the immediate near future, with a 2-tier housing markets now being reported in WA/Perth by REIWA.com recently.

5. A 2 tier housing markets are similarly observed to exist in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and in South Australia, though each of these housing markets, has its own unique characteristics and trends.

6. I also believe at this point in time, that the present weak Sydney property market can and is likely to recover strongly from 2009 onwards, all things being equal. It is quite likely that the big monies for ASX share market may start to flow into the local property markets then.

7. That is why I am re-positioning myself for its impending full market recovery from 2009 onwards.

8. Having said that, I also believe that we are presently witnessing how the once booming and highly "over-valued" housing markets in many parts of the Western World outside Australia, like America, UK, Spain, New Zealand etc have started to "slumped" down suddenly, one after the other, during recent times.

9. Thus, I cannot help but wonder if the Australian housing market may follow suit in the near future, given its present high median house price.

10. While Australians has enjoyed continued economic prosperity for the last 16 years, I also observe that many Australians are beginning to take this economic success "for granted".

11. Consequently, many Australians may want to vote in a new government for a change during this ongoing Federal General Elections, which is presently in progress.

12. With the recent change of the RBA Chairmanship from Ian MacFarlance to Glenn Stevens, and also a likely change from the highly experienced and economic management under the John Howard's Liberal Coalition Government to a newly un-tested Kevin Rudd's ALP Team depending on the outcome of this Federal Elections, (as well as its attendant impending change from the present properly "balanced" bi-partisan political structure (with the Federal Coalition governing at the Federal Level and the ALP governing at the various State level to effectively check-and-balance the Australian Govt, to a single common ALP governing team at both the Federal and State Levels), I am presently quite concerned that Australia may no longer have a sufficiently strong economic leadership to safely and effectively steer itself out of the various impending global financial crises, which are fast unfolding itself before our very eyes today and over the next few years.

13. While it is true that more monies can be made during a bust than during a boom or/and immediately prior to an actual bust, I also believe that more people are likely to be hurt when caught with a falling knife, as the various housing/share markets are starting to change and likely to "tip over" in the near future.

14. For your further comments and discussion, please.

15. Thank you.


Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[Kennethkohsg]

Kenneth,

I start a new thread about how Sydney sets a record price per m2 on a unit sale in the toaster, and you start threads about how bad the housing environment is. There is a disconnect here...

Cheers,
Michael.

***********************
Dear Michael,

1. A "disconnect" is inevitable given "2 sides to a coin", and depending on what each one of us are presently focussing on/ choose to focus as well as given the known fact that different suburbs are at different stages of their housing cycles and are achieving different growth rates.

2. The same thing will apply to the different housing markets too. This is in view of their own unique housing market characteristics though a 2-tier housing markets have been reported in many States across Australia.

3. For your further comments/ discussion, please.

4. Thank you.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[Kennethkohsg]

The figures show there was a total net migration to New Zealand of just 300 people in October.

New Zealand’s low population growth has been credited with taking heat out of the housing market and shop spending."

/QUOTE]

*****************

Dear Michael,

If significant decline in the immigration trends into Australia, are similarly reported in the near future, I will be much concerned about the various housing markets in Australia, too;- notwithstanding the fact I am presently looking forward to a strong Sydney market recovery from 2009 onwards, at this point in time.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[Don and Liz]

“Clearly more and more New Zealanders are voting with their feet as they find Labour’s high-tax, government-knows-best policies are leaving less opportunity for the future than they see in Australia,”

Kenneth - having lived in New Zealand for the past few years you kind of get used to both major political parties cherry picking information about australia and making sweeping comparisons with australia when it suits them.

It is just a "sound bite" comment in one sense.

In a larger sense immigration is a significant issue for both countries. IMHO we need lots more people to reach our full potential - but where from?


What do ya reckon - it will all be one country soon won't it?

 

[MichaelW]

...notwithstanding the fact I am presently looking forward to a strong Sydney market recovery from 2009 onwards, at this point in time.

Hi Kenneth,

Fair enough. I wasn't aware you still were basically upbeat about the Sydney market's immediate future. I sensed that most of your posts of late were grounded in fear. I guess I was trying to say that its important to put a lot of the media scaremongering in perspective and return to your strategy and its timeframe when making investing decisions.

I think the scaremongering is over-cooked globally at the moment, but that there is a small risk of a US recession sending the stock markets backwards for a year or two tops. I can ride that out, so am still investing with a 10 year plus timeframe, and similarly intend to hold all my IPs for a similar timeframe at an absolute minimum. Probably will hold my IPs forever if cashflow from other vehicles permits me to retire without the need to cash in some of my IP chips.

Cheers,
Michael.

 

[Lamingtons]

A few years back, someone who was in some strange investing company was trying to persuade me to buy uni style accomodation in NZ. 2 bedrooms were something like 30 something square metres. I kept saying.. mmm isn't that very tiny? He said it's the norm in NZ, they had lined up Wizard Home Loans to provide the financing if I had 20% deposit.. I think it was something like AU$220K+. Apparently they were flying off the plans cos NZ has no CGT.

 

[Kennethkohsg]

Dear Don and Liz,

1. Can you please, further confirm/disconfirm that the international immigration into New Zealand has dropped significantly over the last few years especially among the "student" immigrants. What are the recent annual immigration figures as compared to its peak days?

2. Do you happen to also know the actual real reasons for this declining trend.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH