Does 14 million vacant homes in the US matter?

[Indifference]

We all know about the US property woes and that Australia has a different set of circumstances in general property sector and financial sector terms, but can another housing crisis in the US have a watershed affect on our domestic market?

A recent RT News segment discusses what 14 million vacant homes/units in the US means:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkUkKen5ALc&feature=em-uploademail-new

Even though this is in the US, they are:

1. the largest economy in the world.
2. the holders of the world's single reserve currency.
3. home to the Federal Reserve that propped up the global banking sector to the tune of 16 trillion in order to avert complete financial chaos. We got the GFC instead...
4. a crucial market against which the strength of our dollar is in large part, measured.

To put it into context, this would represent ~1 million vacant homes/units in Australia, so it is a significant concern. Let's just hope the US can "get their house in order" before it adversely affects ours.

 

[Ausprop]

watching those american business shows lately they are saying the housing market there is recovering quite nicely

 

[hobo-jo]

To put it into context, this would represent ~1 million vacant homes/units in Australia, so it is a significant concern.

err.. we aren't far off that:

As more Australians live with friends or parents to combat falling affordability, the number of vacant dwellings rose to 934,471 in the 2011 census from 830,376 in 2006.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...dercut-claim-of-australian-home-shortage.html

 

[Ausprop]

a million holiday homes... this truly is a great country

 

[BayView]

It'd be interesting to see where those empty houses are.

As was said; a lot of holiday homes in that bunch I'd reckon.

 

[joeExpat]

These 'empty home' claims are very misleading.
It is often applied to Spain, where there are millions of empty homes (one of them mine!)
But they neglect to mention that 24% of Spaniards have a second home (one of the highest percentages anywhere), and millions of foreigners have a holiday home in Spain.

 

[Angel]

Census night in Australia is held when a large number of households are either at the Gold Coast or the ski fields.

 

[MTR]

We all know about the US property woes and that Australia has a different set of circumstances in general property sector and financial sector terms, but can another housing crisis in the US have a watershed affect on our domestic market?

A recent RT News segment discusses what 14 million vacant homes/units in the US means:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkUkKen5ALc&feature=em-uploademail-new

Even though this is in the US, they are:

1. the largest economy in the world.
2. the holders of the world's single reserve currency.
3. home to the Federal Reserve that propped up the global banking sector to the tune of 16 trillion in order to avert complete financial chaos. We got the GFC instead...
4. a crucial market against which the strength of our dollar is in large part, measured.

To put it into context, this would represent ~1 million vacant homes/units in Australia, so it is a significant concern. Let's just hope the US can "get their house in order" before it adversely affects ours.

HI indifference

Unfortunately this media report does not cover the big picture, leaves out the most important factor and that is what is really happening on the ground. Oh well you know the media, never get in the way of a good story.

US now has major institutions buying foreclosures - resi homes accross the country, first time this has happened. Buyers Agents I am dealing with in Atlanta can not secure stock as the big players are snapping up everything, this is pushing house prices up. I expect they have confidence that the market will eventually recover, hell, they are picking these up for as much as 70% discount.

The boat has sailed

The links below will give you some idea on what is really happening - foreclosure market

http://www.buycashflowproperties.com/wp-content/uploads/September-Newsletter-2.pdf

http://www.propertyinvesting.com/forums/overseas-deals/4346068




Cheers MTR

 

[hobo-jo]

a million holiday homes... this truly is a great country

These 'empty home' claims are very misleading.

Census night in Australia is held when a large number of households are either at the Gold Coast or the ski fields.

I don't doubt there are legitimate reasons for a large number of the empty homes, but the level of denial on this forum is pretty funny, especially given the stories of shortages which have been lapped up over the years by many here with little evidence provided.

@Angel, you realise that people that are out of their homes on census night are still expected to fill in the survey, right?

http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/CO-27

The links below will give you some idea on what is really happening - foreclosure market

http://www.buycashflowproperties.com/wp-content/uploads/September-Newsletter-2.pdf
http://www.propertyinvesting.com/forums/overseas-deals/4346068

Looks like some good independent sources you've dug up there!

 

[MTR]

hobo-j,
Don't be fooled, the real people who know what's going on and who are making the money are not anyone with fancy letters next to their name.






Cheers, MTR

 

[Angel]

@Angel, you realise that people that are out of their homes on census night are still expected to fill in the survey, right?

Yes, my comment came from a realestate article I was reading on this topic which was discussing vacant homes in mainly Sydney and Melbourne - this was the response by the person being interviewed. Sorry I dont remember any details.

 

[Scott No Mates]

Census night in Australia is held when a large number of households are either at the Gold Coast or the ski fields.

Resorts like Thredbo, Perisher, Mt Hotham, Buller etc only account for less than 30,000 beds (not units or houses) so actual effect on vacant numbers would not be very high due to the small numbers of accommodation on offer.

 

[joeExpat]

@Angel, you realise that people that are out of their homes on census night are still expected to fill in the survey, right?

Everytime there was a census when I lived independently in Australia noone came to collect it & we ended up throwing it out (3 times, 91,96,01). So I never trusted the results much.

 

[BayView]

I don't doubt there are legitimate reasons for a large number of the empty homes, but the level of denial on this forum is pretty funny, especially given the stories of shortages which have been lapped up over the years by many here with little evidence provided.

So, what are you saying HJ;

1. that there are too many homes being constructed/existing (oversupply)
2. a lot of folk who can't afford them and are homeless/sharing etc.

My thoughts are that if you (the folk compiling these stats) were to randomly pick say; 20 real estate agents around the Country, and ask them what their vacancy rate was for rentals, we'd get a much better picture of how things are going.

For example; here in my little corner, about 50% of the homes are vacant, but not for rent, and never will be....but if you call up an agent; they'll tell you there are not many rentals available atm.

This says to me that less folk are buying for whatever reason (I personally reckon it is a combo of sentiment, and/or lack of funding from Banks due to their stricter lending criteria post-GFC, and folks' money habits - no deposits; ergo no funding).

Everytime there was a census when I lived independently in Australia noone came to collect it & we ended up throwing it out (3 times, 91,96,01). So I never trusted the results much.

Censuses and surveys; I've been here for 50 years and yet to experience one (other than the daily phone cold-caller types).

They must only conduct them on the corner of Swanston and Burke st.

 

[locko24]

There are just over 7 million homes in Australia (2006 census).
1 in seven vacant? Definitely not where i am!!

 

[Aaron Sice]

the one in seven count would be very close to the actual number of state housing commission homes available country-wide.

in WA, many are vacant because of a policy that says "no singles or couples in family homes". pretty daft!

 

[lizzie]

In one particular subdivision near us, 3/4's of the houses are vacant ... that is because it is a secure estate and they are holiday homes for Sydney-siders. Considering there are several such subdivisions in the area - then add in all the B&B properties that are only occupied on the weekends - I'd say there are at least a thousand or more vacant at any given time.

Actually - in a large town of a population of around 30,000 - there are only 48 properties advertised for rental today. I'd say that's a pretty low vacancy rate.

 

[hobo-jo]

So, what are you saying HJ;

I don't think we can make any conclusive statements based on national data (which doesn't account for the many real reasons some homes might be empty). There will be areas with under supply and areas with over supply. My point was only that the number of empty homes we have is comparable to that of the US based on the statistics available.

Those who claim a point of difference between our (AUS/US) housing markets (reason prices won't fall here) is the huge over supply in the US (which only became apparent following the housing bust) should consider that we might not be so different (at least on a national basis).

 

[Ausprop]

I think a million holiday homes is a display of prosperity, not economic weakness. i do find it a little hard to believe that holiday home ownership is that high, particularly as most holiday homes are not held vacant. that would suggest somehting more like 2 or 3 million holiday homes

 

[MTR]

I don't think we can make any conclusive statements based on national data (which doesn't account for the many real reasons some homes might be empty). There will be areas with under supply and areas with over supply. My point was only that the number of empty homes we have is comparable to that of the US based on the statistics available.

Those who claim a point of difference between our (AUS/US) housing markets (reason prices won't fall here) is the huge over supply in the US (which only became apparent following the housing bust) should consider that we might not be so different (at least on a national basis).

Prices in various States in OZ have fallen back considerably for some time now, whats new?? With little confidence in the market it will probably be dull for some time.

With regards Aus/US property market and comparing stats on empty homes US vs Oz, its like comparing chalk and cheese.
MTR