Everything's on sale....

[oracle]

it did, about 4 years ago??? (except Melbourne)

I don't think so. In the above example even though it's extreme, you see the value of the asset drop by 72% (excluding inflation) after 9 years from $18m to $5m.

Even the shopping centre mentioned by the OP has expected resale value below replacement costs.

I don't think you have seen anything remotely similar in residential property. And the more experience I gain, the more I start to realise as an investor you have to consider all possibilities and what it's probabilities are. The reason why you had the GFC was every financial transaction was done on the belief that residential property never goes down. There were a lot of smart ppl who got this wrong.

I am not saying residential property is going to go down, but confidence is a big thing. Something bad happening in China can easily affect Australian Residential property prices by 25%.

Cheers,
Oracle.

 

[wobbycarly]

Reminds me of the bulldozed retail areas I saw when I visited Atlanta 2/3 years ago. Empty plots were considered better than empty shops.

 

[eKwatee]

Port Adelaide has had many vacant derelict building's which prevents the area from potential rejuvination no business wants to be the first to move in. The Commission for Integrated Design, Urban Renewal Authority are looking to use Renew Adelaide which quoting from their website

Renew Adelaide is a non-profit urban renewal project that works to revitalise under used and empty buildings and shop fronts with projects of benefit to the community. Renew Adelaide doesn’t provide ongoing, rent free spaces; rather, we use short term, non-commercial arrangements and work with property owners to keep empty spaces active. Our goal is to provide incubation space for young and emerging entrepreneurs, encourage foot traffic in urban areas and help create vibrant cities – both socially and economically

I think this is a good solution for certain areas, where some business just need a start, which could have the potential to become popular, profitable & eventually paying rent.

 

[BayView]

That's what I am seeing too Lizzie....not just with our small centre, but all over the Perth metro area....and you are obviously seeing it over the other side of the paddock as well.

In my opinion, it's called lack of confidence, and it will not change unless and until the source of the lack of confidence is removed.....I'm talking about the Federal Govt and their decisions.

Ask any business leader what is the one thing that they would all wish for to improve business confidence. Without hesitation, they will all chant in chorus immediately that they wish to see the Federal Govt removed.




Yes, we are seeing this as well.

Our supermarket is trading very strongly....the people are still buying the very basics. The Tenants that are hurting are the butchers / bakers / newsagents (lotto is about the only thing propping them up). Even the chemists are doing less well than before, but they have alot more fat built into their mark ups, so they are still doing OK.

I strongly suspect, that 6 months after the Federal election, we'll see some confidence and spending return to the retail sector.

I agree, yet what amazes me is I heard Michael Pascoe on Sunrise this morning sprouting how retail is still trending up, and it's only the Myers and Coles and GH's who are bleating - according to him..

 

[Aaron_C]

I agree, yet what amazes me is I heard Michael Pascoe on Sunrise this morning sprouting how retail is still trending up, and it's only the Myers and Coles and GH's who are bleating - according to him..

Michael Pascoe is an idiot. He is not in business so he has no idea how things work. If all you do is read figures 'in aggregate', talk big about 'the economy' and forget that the economy is comprised of real people with real businesses and real jobs, then you will be out of touch.

 

[lizzie]

There is a lot of blame on online retail - but I personally don't agree.

Yes, online has increased - but not "that" much. I feel that confidence is down and people are just "making do" with what they have.

 

[Aaron Sice]

Was watching a doco last night (totally unrelated) on the USA journey to go to the moon - thru the words of the, now very elderly, astronauts who took part.

A snippet included JFK's epic and inspiring speech and couldn't help but think "we sooooo need a leader in this country like that". Someone who has a vision to make Australia great, something to instill pride in us as a nation again, instead of all this bickering about petty day to day stuff.

That is what is destroying confidence. It's like being a kid and watching your parents snip and snipe nastily at each other constantly - it totally destroys confidence and self esteem in the "family/country" potential.

when australia gets a leader, we label them a "dictator" and get huffy when they make an actual decision.

no, australians don't need a leader. they need a yes man who can pass the buck to make people feel all warm and fuzzy and that somehow, somewhere...it's someone else's fault.

 

[Dazz]

when australia gets a leader, we label them a "dictator" and get huffy when they make an actual decision.

Amen brother.

Leadership is such a fuzzy BS concept, the people screaming for it don't like it one bit when their elected representatives actually make a decision.

 

[BayView]

Michael Pascoe is an idiot. He is not in business so he has no idea how things work. If all you do is read figures 'in aggregate', talk big about 'the economy' and forget that the economy is comprised of real people with real businesses and real jobs, then you will be out of touch.

I agree.

I've been bangin' on that things aren't that flash in retail for a while, so I don't hold what he says as the gospel.

Just informing all what he said.

 

[Scott No Mates]

There is a lot of blame on online retail - but I personally don't agree.

Yes, online has increased - but not "that" much. I feel that confidence is down and people are just "making do" with what they have.

Online retail is a threat however we are talking a few % points of total sales - a real threat if margins are that thin.

Of Oz retail was competitive there wouldn't be an issue.

Bang on your wholesaler's door.

 

[Ed Barton]

I agree.

I've been bangin' on that things aren't that flash in retail for a while, so I don't hold what he says as the gospel.

Just informing all what he said.

I understand your business is highly discretionary. People can defer servicing their cars and drive around on bald tyres for some time. Dentistry is the same - If it doesn't hurt you don't need a dentist.

In the last couple of weeks I have required the services of both.

1. Mechanic - called them and got an appointment the next day. None of the usual 'you have to book in' next week to get it done. Did the service, with the extras completed the same day. Normally the extras would require a separate booking in another few days.

2. Dentist - called them and got an appointment the next day. Did all the work on the spot - none of the usual 'I'm busy' you'll need to come back on Thursday for extra work.

Both are usually highly booked and hard to get appointments, but atm easy. IMO this is a sign or a weak economy.

Still hard to get an appointment with my GP though...

 

[lizzie]

Of Oz retail was competitive there wouldn't be an issue.

Service is a big killer with discretionary spending. I walked into a store on the weekend and stood at the counter in a friendly manner (just wanted to ask a question).

There were two staff behind the counter having a gossip. Both glanced at me but didn't acknowledge I was there, and continued chatting about a non-work related topic for another good 3-4 minutes before asking if they could help.

If I was the boss/owner I'd have been horrified - and I was as a customer. Didn't end up buying anything and went elsewhere.

 

[gottabespotless]

Service is a big killer with discretionary spending. I walked into a store on the weekend and stood at the counter in a friendly manner (just wanted to ask a question).

There were two staff behind the counter having a gossip. Both glanced at me but didn't acknowledge I was there, and continued chatting about a non-work related topic for another good 3-4 minutes before asking if they could help.

If I was the boss/owner I'd have been horrified - and I was as a customer. Didn't end up buying anything and went elsewhere.

I can relate (I'm sure we all can). Last week a homewares store directly across from where I work closed down. Many people have commented on 'how sad' it is that it had to close its doors and 'when will the bad times end?', etc. I'm sure 'times are bad' but I truly believe the main reason for this particular shop closing down was due to terrible customer service - surprisingly, by the owner ! I am crazy about home decorating/design and love my house to look great so I often found myself in there during my lunch breaks to purchase the odd thing or two, however actually getting the old grump behind the counter to acknowlege my existence in her shop; actually ASK if I required any assistance or, heaven forbid, SMILE and say a friendly HELLO seemed to be expecting too much every time.

Some people are just not cut out for customer service.

As a retail worker myself, customers seem really genuinely surprised when someone is prepared to put in some actual effort. Too many staff simply couldn't give a stuff - they can't/won't accept the fact their job depends on the business' livelihood. I don't think exceeding a customer's expectations for good customer service (or even providing it in the first place) takes much and I confess to getting a massive ego boost when people praise me for putting in the extra effort.

Hmmm... I need to hit the boss up for a promotion...

 

[Aaron Sice]

Online retail is a threat however we are talking a few % points of total sales - a real threat if margins are that thin.

Of Oz retail was competitive there wouldn't be an issue.

Bang on your wholesaler's door.

what were the stats out not a few days ago, something like 65% of all online sales are AUSTRALIAN businesses?

i dont buy the screaming that online sales are predominantly OS markets - funnily enough, of the 35% that are overseas, over two thirds is amazon alone.

goes to show.....something.......ain't all it's made out to be.

 

[Aaron Sice]

Amen brother.

Leadership is such a fuzzy BS concept, the people screaming for it don't like it one bit when their elected representatives actually make a decision.

*cough*colinbarnett*cough*

 

[BayView]

Bang on your wholesaler's door.

If wholesalers start selling "out the back door" to the public, and they have a retail outlet system/network in place, the ramifications if they are discovered by the retailers would be disastrous for the wholesaler.

I have seen this happen.

 

[BayView]

Both are usually highly booked and hard to get appointments, but atm easy. IMO this is a sign or a weak economy.

Halleluja! Someone who finally gets what I've been saying;

This is what we are seeing in the industry (and not just our industry).

I don't need some news report to tell me what's goin' on.

The trends in the market place tell you, and what my customers/reps tell me..

The suits on the The Hill who don't put their hand in their pocket for anything, and city-living high-end earners haven't really got a clue about the masses' life - which is the larger majority of the pop.

Still hard to get an appointment with my GP though...

Yep; there's no recession when it comes to sickness.

We had a Chemist Warehouse open up just up the road from Dromana, and you wanna see how many cars go in and out; it's killing the other local chemists in the shopping centre here.

 

[Scott No Mates]

.
We had a Chemist Warehouse open up just up the road from Dromana, and you wanna see how many cars go in and out; it's killing the other local chemists in the shopping centre here.

Likewise near me, they bought out 3 of the other chemists leaving only 2 independents.

 

[depreciator]

I guess for most of us our perceptions are coloured by our immediate experience.

There is no way I can get my car into my mechanic at short notice. And my dentist is always booked at least a week out.

The cafes around where I live are going nuts. They're packed all weekend.

So are the good bread shops. And the fish joint. Even the local book store is going well.

My local Bunnings gets so busy there is point going there after 8.30am on the weekends - I think they're building another one nearby.

Retail stores on the main street come and go, but they always have. When a new food store pops up, they seem to do okay. I've got a Woollies up the road from me, but now that their offering is becoming more generic I'm finding myself shopping more often at the small local shops.

 

[Player]

Seems like it's largely a tenant's market in the larger discretionary retail centres:

http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/...ea-September_6_20124_10_2012&utm_medium=email