Fiscal literacy and surviving the GFC

I continue to read and marvel how people still believe that what has transpired will pass in a short span of a few months or at worst a few years.



NR
NR,It's not as if all this mess happened overnight,it started in 0CT 07 so it has been over 17 months on the downward slide,and what matters is not how often you are right,what matters in how big is the loss over time I think most people are starting to naively see how bad things may get.
imho willair..
 
Here is another snippet of information on the greed of Wall Street. This one covers the last phase of Merrill Lynch before it fell into the arms of the Bank of America.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/c1b3ac7e-...uid=a712eb94-dc2b-11da-890d-0000779e2340.html

I continue to read and marvel how people still believe that what has transpired will pass in a short span of a few months or at worst a few years.

The music has stopped there are no chairs for investors to rest their weary backsides on just a lot of hackneyed banalities that the common man and woman on the street recognizes is just b.s.

Quantitative easing is fairy floss and the G20 meeting is just more expired C02
that will see those on the world stage rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic . The western economies ballast has shifted and especially those with something to lose, we the investors are no longer masters of our own destiny.

An enormous amount of wealth has been lost on the share markets with more to come. The impact on the property market to date in Australia has been confined to the commercial and high end of the residential market. With the blast furnace of diminishing credit slowly making its way through the economy. The mettle of every residential property investor will be tested and those with insufficient reserves and income will be put to the sword.

NR

Mate this is OLD NEWS. The market is VERY aware of current risks and in my opinion is OVERCOMPENSATING, for risk. People were behind the 8 ball leading into this crisis, and now they have gone to the other extreme, they are jumping at shadows.

We the investors are still very much masters of our own destiny if we have the balls to be investors and take a longer term outlook at things.

When the USA went to war in WWII, did they win it over night? did they come out with a policy and hey presto no more more war?????
There were tactical mistakes that were made and learnt from, but the end game was move on and lets win this war.

People need to stop looking at all the tactical decisions and focus on strategic decisions.
 
NR, do you think we'll get an Evil Knievel Formation in Australia?

evil-kniev-quad-form.png


It's certainly looking like the ledgendary Evil Knievel formation after last nights action.

In fact I'd go as far to say, going off the picture, it's looking like Evil crashes into the Sydney Opera house. :)

See ya's.
 
Mate this is OLD NEWS. The market is VERY aware of current risks and in my opinion is OVERCOMPENSATING, for risk. People were behind the 8 ball leading into this crisis, and now they have gone to the other extreme, they are jumping at shadows.

We the investors are still very much masters of our own destiny if we have the balls to be investors and take a longer term outlook at things.

When the USA went to war in WWII, did they win it over night? did they come out with a policy and hey presto no more more war?????
There were tactical mistakes that were made and learnt from, but the end game was move on and lets win this war.

People need to stop looking at all the tactical decisions and focus on strategic decisions.

Unfortunately Chillie the old news is like a bad meal it just keeps repeating. When you hear the nonsense about how things are improving: example the Wall Street banks January and Febuary profits, ie citibank, JPM. BofA this link clearly demonstrates that their self interest is blocking any real reform.


http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/03/exclusive-aig-was-responsible-for-banks.html
 
Heres an interesting letter showing the other side of the problems:

Dear Mr. Liddy,

It is with deep regret that I submit my notice of resignation from A.I.G. Financial Products. I hope you take the time to read this entire letter. Before describing the details of my decision, I want to offer some context: I am proud of everything I have done for the commodity and equity divisions of A.I.G.-F.P. I was in no way involved in — or responsible for — the credit default swap transactions that have hamstrung A.I.G. Nor were more than a handful of the 400 current employees of A.I.G.-F.P. Most of those responsible have left the company and have conspicuously escaped the public outrage. After 12 months of hard work dismantling the company — during which A.I.G. reassured us many times we would be rewarded in March 2009 — we in the financial products unit have been betrayed by A.I.G. and are being unfairly persecuted by elected officials. In response to this, I will now leave the company and donate my entire post-tax retention payment to those suffering from the global economic downturn. My intent is to keep none of the money myself. I take this action after 11 years of dedicated, honorable service to A.I.G. I can no longer effectively perform my duties in this dysfunctional environment, nor am I being paid to do so. Like you, I was asked to work for an annual salary of $1, and I agreed out of a sense of duty to the company and to the public officials who have come to its aid. Having now been let down by both, I can no longer justify spending 10, 12, 14 hours a day away from my family for the benefit of those who have let me down.

You and I have never met or spoken to each other, so I’d like to tell you about myself. I was raised by schoolteachers working multiple jobs in a world of closing steel mills. My hard work earned me acceptance to M.I.T., and the institute’s generous financial aid enabled me to attend. I had fulfilled my American dream. I started at this company in 1998 as an equity trader, became the head of equity and commodity trading and, a couple of years before A.I.G.’s meltdown last September, was named the head of business development for commodities. Over this period the equity and commodity units were consistently profitable — in most years generating net profits of well over $100 million. Most recently, during the dismantling of A.I.G.-F.P., I was an integral player in the pending sale of its well-regarded commodity index business to UBS. As you know, business unit sales like this are crucial to A.I.G.’s effort to repay the American taxpayer. The profitability of the businesses with which I was associated clearly supported my compensation. I never received any pay resulting from the credit default swaps that are now losing so much money. I did, however, like many others here, lose a significant portion of my life savings in the form of deferred compensation invested in the capital of A.I.G.-F.P. because of those losses. In this way I have personally suffered from this controversial activity — directly as well as indirectly with the rest of the taxpayers.

I have the utmost respect for the civic duty that you are now performing at A.I.G. You are as blameless for these credit default swap losses as I am. You answered your country’s call and you are taking a tremendous beating for it. But you also are aware that most of the employees of your financial products unit had nothing to do with the large losses. And I am disappointed and frustrated over your lack of support for us. I and many others in the unit feel betrayed that you failed to stand up for us in the face of untrue and unfair accusations from certain members of Congress last Wednesday and from the press over our retention payments, and that you didn’t defend us against the baseless and reckless comments made by the attorneys general of New York and Connecticut. My guess is that in October, when you learned of these retention contracts, you realized that the employees of the financial products unit needed some incentive to stay and that the contracts, being both ethical and useful, should be left to stand. That’s probably why A.I.G. management assured us on three occasions during that month that the company would “live up to its commitment” to honor the contract guarantees.
That may be why you decided to accelerate by three months more than a quarter of the amounts due under the contracts. That action signified to us your support, and was hardly something that one would do if he truly found the contracts “distasteful.”

That may also be why you authorized the balance of the payments on March 13. At no time during the past six months that you have been leading A.I.G. did you ask us to revise, renegotiate or break these contracts — until several hours before your appearance last week before Congress. I think your initial decision to honor the contracts was both ethical and financially astute, but it seems to have been politically unwise. It’s now apparent that you either misunderstood the agreements that you had made — tacit or otherwise — with the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, various members of Congress and Attorney General Andrew Cuomo of New York, or were not strong enough to withstand the shifting political winds. You’ve now asked the current employees of A.I.G.-F.P. to repay these earnings. As you can imagine, there has been a tremendous amount of serious thought and heated discussion about how we should respond to this breach of trust. As most of us have done nothing wrong, guilt is not a motivation to surrender our earnings. We have worked 12 long months under these contracts and now deserve to be paid as promised. None of us should be cheated of our payments any more than a plumber should be cheated after he has fixed the pipes but a careless electrician causes a fire that burns down the house. Many of the employees have, in the past six months, turned down job offers from more stable employers, based on A.I.G.’s assurances that the contracts would be honored. They are now angry about having been misled by A.I.G.’s promises and are not inclined to return the money as a favor to you.The only real motivation that anyone at A.I.G.-F.P. now has is fear. Mr. Cuomo has threatened to “name and shame,” and his counterpart in Connecticut, Richard Blumenthal, has made similar threats — even though attorneys general are supposed to stand for due process, to conduct trials in courts and not the press.

So what am I to do? There’s no easy answer. I know that because of hard work I have benefited more than most during the economic boom and have saved enough that my family is unlikely to suffer devastating losses during the current bust. Some might argue that members of my profession have been overpaid, and I wouldn’t disagree. That is why I have decided to donate 100 percent of the effective after-tax proceeds of my retention payment directly to organizations that are helping people who are suffering from the global downturn. This is not a tax-deduction gimmick; I simply believe that I at least deserve to dictate how my earnings are spent, and do not want to see them disappear back into the obscurity of A.I.G.’s or the federal government’s budget. Our earnings have caused such a distraction for so many from the more pressing issues our country faces, and I would like to see my share of it benefit those truly in need. On March 16 I received a payment from A.I.G. amounting to $742,006.40, after taxes. In light of the uncertainty over the ultimate taxation and legal status of this payment, the actual amount I donate may be less — in fact, it may end up being far less if the recent House bill raising the tax on the retention payments to 90 percent stands. Once all the money is donated, you will immediately receive a list of all recipients. This choice is right for me. I wish others at A.I.G.-F.P. luck finding peace with their difficult decision, and only hope their judgment is not clouded by fear. Mr. Liddy, I wish you success in your commitment to return the money extended by the American government, and luck with the continued unwinding of the company’s diverse businesses — especially those remaining credit default swaps. I’ll continue over the short term to help make sure no balls are dropped, but after what’s happened this past week I can’t remain much longer — there is too much bad blood. I’m not sure how you will greet my resignation, but at least Attorney General Blumenthal should be relieved that I’ll leave under my own power and will not need to be “shoved out the door.”

Sincerely,
Jake DeSantis

Source: New York Times
 
I read that letter over the weekend and it is a good read, but it would be interesting to hear a Navy man's thoughts on it: They have the ultimate "collective responsibility". Maybe AIG is another "Curate's egg". You can't dine on the "good" bit and leave the responsibility for the rest to others.

I'm sure Jake happily pocketed his bonuses swollen by "profits" made by the traders in the good years.
 
but the bonuses are tax free in the US, no?

if so, that's why they're paid an annual salary of $1 for the books - makes AIG's annual balance sheet look good and means the employees pay less tax...?
 
Here is another interesting vignette on the consequences of the coming world currency crisis.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2009/0325.pdf
Makes me wonder in these testing times with the way the ASX has been going over the past week,there are glimpses of hope amid the media chaos,March was my best month in trading in over 2 years,so as "Irish Kev"is throwing plates and empty drink bottles around the plane some people are still making money:rolleyes:..willair..
 
Makes me wonder in these testing times with the way the ASX has been going over the past week,there are glimpses of hope amid the media chaos,March was my best month in trading in over 2 years,so as "Irish Kev"is throwing plates and empty drink bottles around the plane some people are still making money:rolleyes:..willair..

Will, If you did ok in March I take it you never short anything? :p

Meanwhile I have had the best 4 mths of trading in 3 years, but still believe more testing times are ahead.
 
Will, If you did ok in March I take it you never short anything? :p

Meanwhile I have had the best 4 mths of trading in 3 years, but still believe more testing times are ahead.
Nah Winston just quick 7-10 day turnaround trades nothing high tech, buying below 20 cent Aussie nearly belly up companies and wait till they go above 100%-300% in that short period, just breaks down to the numbers 100 thousand units don't cost much nor does a million at 17-19 cents,i'm not saying this upward trend won't fall through the trap-door
but something is happening..imho..willair..
 
Nah Winston just quick 7-10 day turnaround trades nothing high tech, buying below 20 cent Aussie nearly belly up companies and wait till they go above 100%-300% in that short period, just breaks down to the numbers 100 thousand units don't cost much nor does a million at 17-19 cents,i'm not saying this upward trend won't fall through the trap-door
but something is happening..imho..willair..

Yes this strategy is very effective in the first stage of a rally.
Since the crap was sold down hard on the bear run, its the sector that shows the most outperformance in a turn around. Very good for a short term trade.

Well done on taking one of the opportunities out there.:D
 
Here is a list of crap stocks on March24 showing the two weeks rally to that point (and the top to bottom drop:D)

Buying the crap on a rebound is not a strategy i use personally (im too scared i will be wrong and i dont have fundamentals to fall back on:confused:), but it just highlights the importance of keeping your eyes open for opportunities.
 

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The bare housing facts in a soft depression

So now we have the government saying to the four pillars; "we want you to give the recently unemployed a repayment holiday"? So what does that mean for all those poor suckers who took up the first home owners grant ?

It means whatever little bit of equity they were given bt FHOG will be eroded with the compounding interest on their home while on a repayment holiday:eek:. As the soft depression continues to lay waste to more and more people and unemployment rises.....

What you should really be asking yourself is how will this play out with the big banks......

http://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/articles/268/The-bear-case-for-the-banks.cfm?articleID=874316

Seems our banks with their exposure to residential property are not as solid as you have been led to believe.
 
There has been much activity on the hush to shore up Australian banks.
RBA keep pumping $$$, government knows that most of handouts will most likely end up with them as well with debt ratio being so high, and of course the guarantees.

All the US & EU noise has also been about one thing only: avoiding bank failures.
Nobody is interested in who is guilty, who sold toxic securities, who bought them and why etc etc.
GM has been going down for 10 yrs, and does'nt really have much to do with the whole subprime, but makes a nice diversion.
The FED is not only saving the reserve bank cartel, but executing payback for those who did'nt tow the line.
 
It means whatever little bit of equity they were given bt FHOG will be eroded with the compounding interest on their home while on a repayment holiday:eek:. As the soft depression continues to lay waste to more and more people and unemployment rises.....

well interest or rent - you need a roof over your head. You can always fill your spare rooms with borders. I'm just annoyed that these deals are only ever with the big 4
 
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