This report is prepared based on various statistics released by Gladstone regional city council and social impact analysis report from 4 major LNG projects , which are the main driving forces behind recent Gladstone real estate hype. This is only my view, however I strongly encourage the forum members to read the attached source of information and input their difference of opinion
Insight of Gladstone LGA
Current Population (YR 2010) –--------> 60316
Available Dwellings (YR 2006) --------->21568
Approved Dwellings (YR 2007)--------->756
Approved Dwellings (YR 2008)--------->1090
Approved Dwellings (YR 2009)--------->1174
Approved Dwellings (YR 2010)--------->1221
Approved total Dwellings Approximate (up to YR 2010) –---> 25809
Uncompleted residential lots out of approved (up to YR 2010) –-> 3994
Essential Dwellings under use / under development (up to YR 2010 SEP) ---->21815
Expected Demand (2011 to 2014 )
Total expectated demand for the all the 4 major LNG proejcts namely APLNG, GLNG, QCLNG and Arrow LNG
Temporaray workers ( 2011 - 2014 ) = 10300 ( Refer atatched table-1 for breakup)
only 20% of temporary workers expected to stay in Mainland = 2060
Other supporting company workers Aprox ( 10% of all ) = 1030
Expected Supply for next 10 Years
Approved but uncompleted residential lot available Approximate (up to YR 2010) –----> 3994
Other than that there are 2539 Broad hectares (BH) of land available to release for next 10 years
1 Broadhectare is Greater than 2500 m2 = Approximate 4 Dwellings (625 M2 / Dwelling), so 2539 Broadhectare = Aprox 10.000 new Dwellings
Now let us look at the Land release per year
2011 to 2012 ---------------> 746 BH = 2984 Dwellings
2013 to 2015---------------> 1838 BH = 7352 Dwellings
2015 to 2021---------------> 940 BH = 3760 Dwellings
2021 to 2031---------------> 1548 BH = 6197 Dwellings (not considered)
Other than these
Unscheduled land available for emergency ---------------->306 BH = 1224 dwellings
Workers Camp at Calliope to be leased for corporate----------------> 824 BH = 3296 Dwellings
Workers Camp at Clinton to be leased for corporate----------------> 824 BH = 3296 Dwellings
Summary
Lot approved but under developemnt / waiting for investors –-----> 3994 Dwellings
Potential availabilty By end of YR 2012 ----------------> 6984 (3994 + 2984) dwellings
Potential availabilty By end of YR 2015 ---------------->14,336 (6984 +7352) dwellings
Potential availabiltyBy end of YR 2021------------------> 18096 (14336+3760) dwellings
Plus
Emergency Release available for Council ----------------------------->1224 dwellings
Workers camp at Calliope and Clinton -----------> 6592 (2012 to 2015) dwellings
After 10 years Gladstone can have Aprox another 25,912 residential lots (subject to number of investor). It is 100% growth in supply whereas population will grow only 20 to 25 %
Demand vs Supply short term (2011 to 2015)
20% of construction workers from major LNG project = 2030
Other supporting company workers =1030
Unexpected floating population due to massive projects = 3000
Usual population growth 10% = 6000 = 2000 Families
In addition to the 900 properties available in RE today, another available
14336 lots can be converted in to potential rental properties
Demand 8060 vs potential supply 15236 (only private residential)
Demand 8060 vs potential supply 23052 (Private + emergency lot + workers camp)
It is worth to note that all the construction workers will be demobilised from 2014 by all major LNG companies. So no surprise if there is a spike in rental market until 2014
Demand vs Supply long term (2011 to 2021)
LNG companies permanent staffs = 1700
Other supporting companies = 100
Gladstone Nickel Refinery = 500
Unexpected population growth due to massive industrial developments = 3000 families
Usual population growth (22 % average) = 13,200 = 4400 families
In addition to 23052 available by end of 2015, another 3760 lots to be released
Demand 9700 vs potential supply 26,812
Gladstone Population YR 2021 (75000 or Aprox 30000 families) vs Available Dwellings 52,621
Some of the Interesting Observations
1.All four LNG project companies are committed to have temporary workers camp in Curtis Island to accommodate 80% of work force to avoid any unwanted impact in Gladstone housing market. Refer attached social impact study from APLNG and QGC
2.It looks like major mining and gas companies learnt good lessons in place like Darwin, Port Headland and Karratha and try to avoid the same type of ugly demand in Gladstone. This is what reflecting by means of workers camp , massive release of residential land for another 5 years so on
3.For past 4 years ( 2007 to 2010 ) totally 163 residential projects approved by Gladstone council , each of them approx 50 lots , totally accounted for 3994 lots , however only 24% ( 976 lots ) is under development until sep 2010.
Gladstone vs Port Headland comparison
PH
Available Land = 115 Broad Hectares
Demand by end of 2009 = 1400 dwellings
Approved up to 2010 Sep = 332
Construction Cost 4 BED avrg = 450, 000 $
Gladstone
Available Land = 2539 Broad Hectares
By 2010 Sep 76% of approved lots (3018) waiting for investors
Construction Cost 4 BED avrg = 250, 000 $
Insight of Gladstone LGA
Current Population (YR 2010) –--------> 60316
Available Dwellings (YR 2006) --------->21568
Approved Dwellings (YR 2007)--------->756
Approved Dwellings (YR 2008)--------->1090
Approved Dwellings (YR 2009)--------->1174
Approved Dwellings (YR 2010)--------->1221
Approved total Dwellings Approximate (up to YR 2010) –---> 25809
Uncompleted residential lots out of approved (up to YR 2010) –-> 3994
Essential Dwellings under use / under development (up to YR 2010 SEP) ---->21815
Expected Demand (2011 to 2014 )
Total expectated demand for the all the 4 major LNG proejcts namely APLNG, GLNG, QCLNG and Arrow LNG
Temporaray workers ( 2011 - 2014 ) = 10300 ( Refer atatched table-1 for breakup)
only 20% of temporary workers expected to stay in Mainland = 2060
Other supporting company workers Aprox ( 10% of all ) = 1030
Expected Supply for next 10 Years
Approved but uncompleted residential lot available Approximate (up to YR 2010) –----> 3994
Other than that there are 2539 Broad hectares (BH) of land available to release for next 10 years
1 Broadhectare is Greater than 2500 m2 = Approximate 4 Dwellings (625 M2 / Dwelling), so 2539 Broadhectare = Aprox 10.000 new Dwellings
Now let us look at the Land release per year
2011 to 2012 ---------------> 746 BH = 2984 Dwellings
2013 to 2015---------------> 1838 BH = 7352 Dwellings
2015 to 2021---------------> 940 BH = 3760 Dwellings
2021 to 2031---------------> 1548 BH = 6197 Dwellings (not considered)
Other than these
Unscheduled land available for emergency ---------------->306 BH = 1224 dwellings
Workers Camp at Calliope to be leased for corporate----------------> 824 BH = 3296 Dwellings
Workers Camp at Clinton to be leased for corporate----------------> 824 BH = 3296 Dwellings
Summary
Lot approved but under developemnt / waiting for investors –-----> 3994 Dwellings
Potential availabilty By end of YR 2012 ----------------> 6984 (3994 + 2984) dwellings
Potential availabilty By end of YR 2015 ---------------->14,336 (6984 +7352) dwellings
Potential availabiltyBy end of YR 2021------------------> 18096 (14336+3760) dwellings
Plus
Emergency Release available for Council ----------------------------->1224 dwellings
Workers camp at Calliope and Clinton -----------> 6592 (2012 to 2015) dwellings
After 10 years Gladstone can have Aprox another 25,912 residential lots (subject to number of investor). It is 100% growth in supply whereas population will grow only 20 to 25 %
Demand vs Supply short term (2011 to 2015)
20% of construction workers from major LNG project = 2030
Other supporting company workers =1030
Unexpected floating population due to massive projects = 3000
Usual population growth 10% = 6000 = 2000 Families
In addition to the 900 properties available in RE today, another available
14336 lots can be converted in to potential rental properties
Demand 8060 vs potential supply 15236 (only private residential)
Demand 8060 vs potential supply 23052 (Private + emergency lot + workers camp)
It is worth to note that all the construction workers will be demobilised from 2014 by all major LNG companies. So no surprise if there is a spike in rental market until 2014
Demand vs Supply long term (2011 to 2021)
LNG companies permanent staffs = 1700
Other supporting companies = 100
Gladstone Nickel Refinery = 500
Unexpected population growth due to massive industrial developments = 3000 families
Usual population growth (22 % average) = 13,200 = 4400 families
In addition to 23052 available by end of 2015, another 3760 lots to be released
Demand 9700 vs potential supply 26,812
Gladstone Population YR 2021 (75000 or Aprox 30000 families) vs Available Dwellings 52,621
Some of the Interesting Observations
1.All four LNG project companies are committed to have temporary workers camp in Curtis Island to accommodate 80% of work force to avoid any unwanted impact in Gladstone housing market. Refer attached social impact study from APLNG and QGC
2.It looks like major mining and gas companies learnt good lessons in place like Darwin, Port Headland and Karratha and try to avoid the same type of ugly demand in Gladstone. This is what reflecting by means of workers camp , massive release of residential land for another 5 years so on
3.For past 4 years ( 2007 to 2010 ) totally 163 residential projects approved by Gladstone council , each of them approx 50 lots , totally accounted for 3994 lots , however only 24% ( 976 lots ) is under development until sep 2010.
Gladstone vs Port Headland comparison
PH
Available Land = 115 Broad Hectares
Demand by end of 2009 = 1400 dwellings
Approved up to 2010 Sep = 332
Construction Cost 4 BED avrg = 450, 000 $
Gladstone
Available Land = 2539 Broad Hectares
By 2010 Sep 76% of approved lots (3018) waiting for investors
Construction Cost 4 BED avrg = 250, 000 $