Gold back at US$700

Gold sharply up, US market down.

Hmm... is this the beginning of the end? :D

Sept 11 anniversary on Tuesday, and apparently Sept 12 is 55 days from the last main high of the current trend (Dow I think). Apparently the 1929 and 1987 crashes both occurred 55 days from their recent peaks.

I can't confirm that, but that's what I've seen stated. Next week could be interesting...

Cheers,
GP
 
A quick question.
Can one purchase shares in the gold index on line? and, which are the best gold stocks?( the ones with the smallest debt and the biggest reserves still in the ground) I think it is going to be a big year for gold and oil next year. "I feel it in my waters".
Thanks
Simon
 
thanks Welcome
I would never of thought to type in GOLD.:eek: expensive shares:eek: should have bought some back in July when the market was high.
Cheers
Simon
 
On another thread, a few weeks ago I said to keep an eye on gold. I stick with that. :)
The metal is closing in on a 26-year high of $730 an ounce hit in May last year and is roughly $145 below its all-time high of $850, fixed in London on January 21, 1980...
Will be an interesting few weeks ,another window of opportunity.imho.
willair..
 
Simon, we are looking at well trodden ground. Using today's fundamentals there is nothing cheap out there but to my mind that is doubly true for RE.

As Welcome said you can go for GOLD, an Exchange Traded Fund where you, theoretically, buy a set percentage of an ounce of allocated gold for every share. This is not really a set amount because it is gradually eroded by storage fees and insurance. Hopefully price inflation is more than dilution. My margin lender will lend 60% of value.


Or you can buy allocated bullion from Perth Mint and pay storage and insurance yourself.

Or you can buy unallocated gold from the Mint and pay no storage and insurance but there is an implied risk with unallocated bullion.

Or you can buy the miners. Theoretically this is the most profitable way because any price increase should go straight to the bottom line. Ain't neccessarily so! Miner's costs are rising faster than the price of gold. This has blown the idea that the highest leverage is available from the marginal, high cost, miners such as Lihir. The logic here is that if it costs $550/oz to extract and you get $600/oz on the market, profit is thin and the price low. But if the POG goes to $700/oz your positive cash flow has tripled so your shares should do V well. That isn't happening because oil and other costs are rising too.

So you can buy Central/South American miners where costs are lower, but the autocratic governments are rapacious and likely to steal your mine once you have got it working. One Mexican silver miner I know has a -ve cost of extraction once gold credits are taken into account. Another is doing badly because it's board is comprised of thieves and vagabonds.

As with everything, it ain't easy. If it was, everybody would be doing it. LOL
 
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Thanks Sunfish
Your posts are always appreciated. Helps clear the picture more for me.
I think I'll just start picking up the odd Gold and silver coins and get to the banks before anyone else, before they close their doors.:) (jokig)
Cheers
Simon
 
$200 Gold Coins may be the way to go ;)

Aren't a lot of Miners hedged and selling gold for prices agreed upon in the past (Sons of Gwalia problems etc)??

How about Gold Futures..
 
Newcrest is raising a couple of bill A$ to buy back their hedges. This means they must buy physical gold to deliver back to their lenders, probably central banks. If they (the banks) don't immediately put that gold back in the market the POG will rise further.

Not quite right:

This latest big de-hedging by a major global gold miner, involves the close-out of hedge contracts totalling 2,049,017 ounces, though the company says it will purchase 2.25 M oz of gold put options equivalent to an average of 500,000 oz per annum over 4.5 years, beginning in January 2008. The strike price is $A800/oz ($US657.6/oz).
 
With the dow on its 13050 resistance in last nights trading it will be very interesting to see what happens tonight sept 11.
My prediction is that it will break and fall through to become a bear market for a while. How far it falls tonight is not that important but if it falls through the resistance that will be a significant stimulant for market sentiment.
Simon
 
One other easy way is to buy Goldcorp warrants on the ASX (ZAUWBA).

I think you generally get a better spread with GOLD, but the warrants provide an alternative and are for 100th ounce, so the price is only around $8.50 instead of $85. You can also exercise them for the physical if you wish, but I think there are added costs.

Cheers,
GP
 
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