Sell Aussie
February 2, 2012
I love Australia and its people. No other country or people have been kinder to Kim and me. So I write this blog with concern and hesitation, a little fearful for their future, as well as ours.
A few days ago, I attended a seminar on what to expect in 2012. The future does not look good for most of the world. The presenter posted a number of charts on the world economy. Two charts caught my eye: the Baltic Dry Index and the Harpex Index.
The two indexes measure ocean freight, indicators of world trade, and the world economy. They caught my eye because my education is in ocean transportation. I learned to be a merchant-ship's officer at the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy.
Both indexes are important because the Baltic Dry Index measures raw material transported by sea, and the Harpex Index reflects finished products shipped in containers. Both indexes look like a black-diamond ski slope. If they don't change direction and head back uphill, depression is imminent.
I'm concerned for Australia because the Aussies ship in bulk which is measured by the Baltic Dry Index. Countries such as South Korea, Japan, India, and China ship refined manufactured products via containers which is measured by the Harpex Index. If this trend continues, Australia, India, and South Korea will follow the rest of the world into the recession—a double dip. This is not good for anyone. If I were in Australia today, I would use their strong dollar to buy gold and silver.