Gold

[Intrinsic_Value]

has anyone checked the recent gold/S&P chart.
From memory the chart started to reverse a few months ago.

Probably not much meaning for long term gold holders, but it has been attracting attention from global momentum based hedge funds.

 

[Sunfish]

This came through my inbox the other day but delivery only to American addresses. Priced at $169 sounds ok ?

These fractional oz gold coins/ingots are V poor value IMO, they are, as my Dad would say, neither your a$$ nor your elbow: Too high a premium to be value and too small to be a "store of wealth".

You can find 1 oz silver far cheaper if you scratch around. And if you have a guns, gold and baked beans outlook, they are probably more negotiable.

 

[Graemsay]

This is the coin you really want in your collection.

It weighs in at over a tonne, and is worth $53 million or so. More here.

I still believe that gold is one of a collection of asset classes (prime London property, US Treasuries, and German Bunds) that are considered safe havens in an unsafe world. And as such I think that these are all trading at a premium because of this.

My suspicion is that they're going to remain so until the economy finds some stability, and that's looking like it's a way away still.

 

[.toe]

This is the coin you really want in your collection.

It weighs in at over a tonne, and is worth $53 million or so. More here.

I still believe that gold is one of a collection of asset classes (prime London property, US Treasuries, and German Bunds) that are considered safe havens in an unsafe world. And as such I think that these are all trading at a premium because of this.

My suspicion is that they're going to remain so until the economy finds some stability, and that's looking like it's a way away still.

There seems to be disagreement about US Treasuries though. Aparently Bill Gross & Warren Buffet see this differently. Gross says there's no where else that's safe for all that money to go. Buffet says interest rates are lower than inflation & anyway the reason why treasuries are high is cause the Fed keeps printing money.

I personally wouldn't fight the US treasury, but someone like George Soros might

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

There seems to be disagreement about US Treasuries though. Aparently Bill Gross & Warren Buffet see this differently. Gross says there's no where else that's safe for all that money to go. Buffet says interest rates are lower than inflation & anyway the reason why treasuries are high is cause the Fed keeps printing money.

I personally wouldn't fight the US treasury, but someone like George Soros might

not really, you have to consider how they manage their money.
Gross essentially operates a bond fund, so going towards treasuries might be an indication that other bond classes dont represent sufficient risk vs return (for example junk bonds).

Buffett's investment world covers just about everything. With such a broad range of assets to choose from why consider US treasuries at this level of return.

I can make one reasonably accurate forecast, whats the yield on 30 year treasury bonds? about 3.1%. At this level i can nearly guarantee that someone buying now and holding until maturity will loose money. So why invest in it????

Yeah yeah i hear many people saying, if its this obvious why are professional investors still in treasury bonds????

Well my prediction is its a game of chicken. Try to grab what little yield is around, but with an eye to the exit if prices move against the position.

 

[Graemsay]

I wasn't saying that bunds, gilts, gold and prime London property are safe, but rather that they're perceived that way.

As such I think that a lot of investors are buying into them as a means of preserving their wealth, and in the medium term they might not actually achieve this.

That, and a 30 year Treasury yielding 3.1% is going to give you more of a return than parking the money in a UK, US or EU bank (Australia is different ), it's currently a highly liquid asset so can be sold on easily, and has historically been a safe place. OK, you might lose a few percentage in real terms to inflation, but that's better than being caught on the wrong side of blow-up in the Eurozone.

 

[.toe]

Yeah yeah i hear many people saying, if its this obvious why are professional investors still in treasury bonds????

My guess would be because it's the safest of the few investments that are liquid enough. Gold for example is a very small market, about 1% of the bond markets. In the eighties it went to $850 while only absorbing 3% of the bond market.

Add to that the fact the Fed said it would keep it's ZIRP till nearly 2015.

 

[willair]

My guess would be because it's the safest of the few investments that are liquid enough. Gold for example is a very small market, about 1% of the bond markets. In the eighties it went to $850 while only absorbing 3% of the bond market.

Add to that the fact the Fed said it would keep it's ZIRP till nearly 2015.

I still think it will have nothing to do with the spot-price of Gold,the price of Oil has more control..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis

 

[Sunfish]

I've said it before, but it seems that it is only us old phartz who really understand the possibility of serious, life-changing CHANGE.

Many of you are half my age and you will agree that change is inevitable and will quote the amazing changes in communication as an example. That ain't "change" folks, that is simply development of technology.

Change is wars, depressions and the like. Just because you haven't experienced them during your short life does not mean megalomaniacs don't control your destiny.

Take care.

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

I've said it before, but it seems that it is only us old phartz who really understand the possibility of serious, life-changing CHANGE.

.

In my opinion, the change you are talking about will only occur when the 'masses' lose their savings.

Many of the problems that are happening in the hot spot Europe at the moment is because things are being taken from the people who DID NOT DESERVE IT in the first place.

Yes i am younger, but i dont see the 'guns and baked beans situation'.

I do see a long period of global deleveraging, which will mean that yesterdays wealth creation stratagies will have a much lower probability of achieving the same level of success in the future.

 

[Aaron Sice]

i see a guns and baked beans scenario unless we can find a way to maintain the huxley world we live in, otherwise orwellian nightmare will be required to supress the masses,

considering the NDAA, the new TSA powers, greece's bailout conditions, 25% unemployment and a banking cartel that care not who makes the laws, im going with the powers that be realise they will be powerless to stop the huxley curtain from falling and are laying the foundations for the back up plan.

 

[.toe]

I still think it will have nothing to do with the spot-price of Gold,the price of Oil has more control..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis

My assertion isn't that Gold causes anything, it's that Gold is a tiny market compared to bonds, so there are implications.

I agree that the price of oil leads markets. Especially with a ZIRP, oil is the new Fed funds rate. So what will happen to oil when Assad is thrown out & the Iranian people decide they're next on the freedom wagon? What tyrannical, oil bearing regimes are left?

If oil is the new Fed funds rate, who is the new Fed? OPEC, Iran, whoever has the biggest guns? What would happen to US debt if oil suddenly averaged $50 a barrel? How much would the US like that to happen?

On the other side of the coin, what would happen to the USD if the world started trading oil for food & gold like Iran is doing right now? Wasn't Iraq trading oil for food? If the world decided not to keep a handy greenback supply & the USD got dumped, what would oil cost in USD then, $200 a barrel?

 

[willair]

So what will happen to oil when Assad is thrown out & the Iranian people decide they're next on the freedom wagon? What tyrannical, oil bearing regimes are left?
?

From my small experience over the last few years it's not a easy task surviving a financial crisis,and with the massive US build up all along Irans watchtowers something will give,and if another "OIL-BOYCOTT" comes from nowhere then the effects take longer as you live through them..
Rock the Casbah..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Hdt_zWIPI

 

[.toe]

From my small experience over the last few years it's not a easy task surviving a financial crisis,and with the massive US build up all along Irans watchtowers something will give,and if another "OIL-BOYCOTT" comes from nowhere then the effects take longer as you live through them..
Rock the Casbah..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Hdt_zWIPI

Agreed, oil has upside risk right now. I'm just taking a wild stab at an alternative longer view

 

[redwing]

Coin goes on tour

Apparently nearly half a million of the 1933 Gold Double Eagle coins were minted in the midst of the Great Depression, but most of them were melted down before leaving the United States Mint as part of a strategy to stabilise the American economy.

1933 Double Eagle Gold Coin Begins European Tour

Within the splendor that is the Goldsmith’s Hall, among the priceless paintings and abundant city-of-London history, the display of the legendary 1933 Saint Gaudens Double Eagle gold coin made a bit of history itself today. On loan by special permission from the Smithsonian Institution and in conjunction with the Samler Huset Group, sponsors of the event, the coin will feature on a multi-city tour to what is expected will be many thousands of interested coin enthusiasts and collectors who will relish the opportunity to see an item which would ordinarily be off limits unless a visit to the US capitol is on the horizon.

With the kind of fanfare and anticipation usually on show for rock stars or royalty, the famed 1933 St. Gaudens $20 gold double Eagle coin was unveiled to a roomful of news reporters, journalists and photographers. Often referred to as the world’s most expensive coin, amid the security, from local, national and right up to international level, the glittering and renowned gold coin was unveiled from under red drapery by Peter Swanston, Samler Huset’s CEO.

Commenting on the event, Mr. Swanston noted “This is an incredibly exciting event. As well as being immensely valuable, the 1933 Double Eagle is a truly beautiful coin. We are thrilled to bring it to London and I’m sure many people will want to come and see this icon of American history.”
Cont..

Source

The 1933 'Double Eagle' was dreamed up by President Roosevelt’s distant cousin,Theodore, who had commissioned the sculptor Augustus Saint-Gaudens to re-design the $20 gold coin in the early 1900s.
Teddy Roosevelt wanted an American coin that matched the beauty of the ancient Greek ones.
The last run of nearly 500,000 coins were never released, and it was thought they were all melted down for scrap.
In industry speak, an 'eagle' is $10, hence the term 'double eagle' for the $20 1933 examples

Wiki Link

 

[redwing]

Just having a look at the price of Gold over the year

High of 1900.30 and low of 1486.50 over the last 12 months

 

[Jayjayjay]

Gold looks pretty bearish to me. Long term trend broken after a long bull run, indicators turning bearish and a txtbook topping pattern over last 12 months. Through recent support at 1520ish gives a technical target of 1180ish. Gold tends to trade very true to technical analysis.....I'm a ta fan.

 

[Indifference]

Gold looks pretty bearish to me. Long term trend broken after a long bull run, indicators turning bearish and a txtbook topping pattern over last 12 months. Through recent support at 1520ish gives a technical target of 1180ish. Gold tends to trade very true to technical analysis.....I'm a ta fan.

I wouldn't be so quick to make such a call.... have a look at this:

Many people had the same idea in 2008... they were wrong. They were very wrong as gold is still double where it was then.

Looking at the fundamentals underpinning the gold bull run, one needs to ask the question: Has anything changed in the past 12 months to warrant an end to the bull run? Short answer is no. Actually, there is more pressure for gold to rise today than there was 12 months ago. The current situation is a result of central banking actions to preserve the financial system. Nothing more. Just like 2008, the correction will come to pass as the fundamentals have not changed.

Central banks continue with quantitative easing measures at an alarming rate and as long as they keep printing, this long term run will continue.

One other thing.... please open your mind to measuring value in something other than $. Since you mentioned an affinity for TA, look at this:

No signs of breaking there..... we have a fair way to go before we see a reversal & with the global economy fracturing at the seams, we have not even seen the explosive upswing of this long term bull run (in gold) yet. After this correction, there will be a mania phase.... but this could be years yet.

 

[Aaron Sice]

i just bought another 10oz Ag and 10g Au.

my buying patterns dont change now, i have a complete disregard for price.....unless i see a bargain like those mint proof silver sets i got for under spot....!

 

[perky29]

For the gold / silver bugs out there. A mate of mine writes up this blog for the ABC Bullion Company , based in Sydney.
He updates it daily , a good read...

http://www.ausbullion.blogspot.com.au/