House prices in freefall

[astroboy]

Thats me in any asset class other than property, uneducated & unknowing. I wouldn't know a put from a call from a trade from an option from a future... you get the picture.
I understand what I'm strong in and have and will continue to do well at it.
And yes I do tend to put more time into it at present and good deals are few and far between but they still happen. And when they appear to be non existant I still have properties that I can do stuff with in the quiet times.
ab
BTW LB, I think your latest postings have turned around those questions I had on post rates dropping off over Dec/Jan on this forum

 

[Mikhaila]

Originally posted by L Bernham
Here we go

Average rental yields for England and Wales finished the year down slightly at 7.49 per cent, while average rental income rose from £8,719 to £9,412.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8214-942475,00.html

And all this in a country where there really is a lack of space.

I was going to find more but I can't be bothered proving something I already know and no-one else wants to hear.

That is the problem – you can’t be bothered, may be you should be…

Source: API VIC Houses Average rent YLD for the 12 months to 30th June 2003
Post Code – YLD %
3021 – 6.13%
3022 – 6.32%
3024 – 6.76%
3030 – 6.62%
3061 – 6.47%
3081 – 6.10%

I can carry on with VIC… If you only bothered to check the data you could have found some 8%/9%+ postcodes in QLD. Sorry, I’ve forgotten you already “know” something and no-one else wants to hear you.
M.

 

[L Bernham]

Mikhaila
I dont know what that post proves except that you have found some postcodes that still have a lower rental yield than the average for the whole of the UK.
You disagree with me but then you provide figures that prove my point.

I should also add that this 7.49% in the UK is already at one of its historical lows as the UK and IReland are two of the other countries considered to be going through speculative price bubbles.

LB

 

[suggo]

Ocean View nice to see you again, your a funny bugger!
BTW I do think that the stockmarket and housing sector has common ground, but differences come in on the downside. The corrections downward for the housing market is never as great as in the stockmarket and I believe that the reasons that I stated in my post (yes the one that LB seemed to find offensive) in general are the reason.(still waiting for some sort of reply for my non-offensive post from LB...waiting....waiting...waiting....)

Mikhaila, give it up. LB makes statements that sound like he is referring to more than one thing (like countries, sectors of the market etc) but will only ever quote the facts that are in his favour and it doesn't matter what evidence you present he will either continue to quote his 'fact' or not respond to that part of your post at all.
My short holiday from the forum must have been good because I forgot that it is a pointless exercise posting LB with questions as his replies are skewed and often rude. Oh well life goes on!

 

[see_change]

Hi astroboy

Originally posted by astroboy

BTW LB, I think your latest postings have turned around those questions I had on post rates dropping off over Dec/Jan on this forum

and your point is ?? Are we here for quality or quantity?


Suggo

re

Originally posted by suggo

My short holiday from the forum must have been good because I forgot that it is a pointless exercise posting LB with questions as his replies are skewed and often rude. Oh well life goes on!

There's a great facility on this forum. It's called the ignore function. When I first saw it , I thought , I can't imagine a situation where I'd want to use it.

I have now found a reason.

When I first used it , I must admit temptation got the better of me and I looked, but now , I have no problems resisting.

Chill out . It's really is up to every one to make their own decisions about what they do. I have faith in my ability. You have faith in your ability. The rest .... if they are easily swayed , they only have their selves to blame.

See Change

 

[L Bernham]

Well said, See change.

If someone doesnt like what I say I would suggest that they dont read my posts or threads I start.

There is so much useful information on the web.
Billions of pages of information. Why read the pages you don't agree with if its going to cause you grief. Check out another thread.

There are plenty of other threads to take part in on this forum alone.
I dont like to admit it but there are a couple of forum members whose posts I ignore. I'm sure they don't mind. I know of quite a few who ignore my posts. I'm fine with that.

In brief, if anyone wants a discussion on what I post then I'm happy to do that. If not, move on to another.

 

[willair]

LB,
What worries you the most, the cost of eliminating the the rish?
mabye just change your economic criteria,find the properties
you see 25% undervalued buy them and start to have a inverstmet again in property.

good luck
willair..

 

[astroboy]

Originally posted by see_change
Hi astroboy

and your point is ?? Are we here for quality or quantity?

See Change

Excuse me ??? do you even understand what your comment relates to or do you just want to cross swords.
You're a tosser see change.
See, no justification, no excuse, no cross reference, simply my opinion.
Oh, no smileys either.
astroboy.

 

[suggo]

See Change, I know you are correct, but I do worry about the people who listen to some of the silly advice and over the top claims that are made by some people on this forum. I suppose when I first started reading this forum there didn't seem to be any over the top views, just calm well thought out and balanced information that you were able to look at and make your own decision. LB says he is here to help newbie investors, but all I see is him shoving his opinion down their throats, he seems to be another one of those people that seem to surround you when you go out to start investing....you know the ones....."the maket is bad don't invest blah blah blah" and if you listen to them you find yourself 4 years down the track and you still have done nothing waiting for that "right" time to invest.

But I do know your right and I will I'm sure come to a point, regrettablly, where I will use that little ignore button.
Thanks for the support!

 

[Aceyducey]

Agree with you entirely suggo.

Note that I have no issues with people raising cautions about markets/decisions - I do it myself all the time on the forum and in person. But I try to ALWAYS link it to suggestions about how to overcome the issues.

This kind of constructive advice is what this forum is about.

There seem to be a few newer posters of the mindset: "market will drop through the flood, I'll buy up big & make a fortune at the expense of the over-extended bozos as they go bankrupt!". I include LB in this group.

They never offer constructive support for other posters, just carefully selected figures in carefully selected threads to cause confusions and dissention.

They can't offer helpful support to other posters because they know very little about the topics that are being discussed.

----------------

Here's an article everyone in this thread should read.

Particularly those using median prices to justify freefalls in property prices.

http://www.afsd.com.au/article/aip/api19.06.03.pdf

However I bet the leeches will twist it to their own purposes

Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[Mikhaila]

Ditto Acey and especially Suggo.

 

[sbe]

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics !!!

 

[L Bernham]

It seems to be the same few people always that object to my posts.

Where I differ from most people that say ....."the maket is bad don't invest blah blah blah" is that I provide opinions with back up evidence in the form of other figures and well respected views from leading experts and other authorities.
Not only that. but if I give reasons why I think its not a good time to invest I've demonstrated that I'm also very happy to discuss the validity or accuracy of my sources. If I've overlooked anything I'm happy to admit it (even to my detriment when I was pounced on once for admitting I was wrong).

All I'm ever after is a discussion. We've had some good ones. I have helped people view things in a different perspective and dispelled a couple of myths such as "low interest rates means property always goes up" or "property always goes up because people need somewhere to live" etc.

There are some people that I wish would put me on ignore so that we can continue the intelligent discussion without people rubbishing my views on the basis that they are the opposite to what they want to see.

LB

 

[Mikhaila]

LB,
I knew ignorance is a bliss but not to such extend. You’ve been proven many times wrong, yet you continue to express your dilettante opinion and kidding yourself with dispelling some myths. As for ignore button, stop wishing and use it - add all those who disagreed with you to the ignore list and you will have wonderful monologues.

 

[L Bernham]

Thats your opinion Mikhaila. I respect that.

I can't think of too many times I've been proven wrong (some maybe). I guess thats because I often provide the source for my opinions and its hard to disprove statistics and thorough research.

 

[Bill.L]

Hi all,

LB, your kidding right??

When shown evidence contrary to your opinion, you just dismiss it, not consider it.

When challenged about misleading statements YOU made, you attack the messenger, not redress the fallacies you produce.

You stated a few posts back that people were staying where they were longer and not buying, then in the same breath claimed that developers were still flogging off their developments like crazy. When challenged with the ambiguity, you attack rather than defend your statement.

You patently do not understand the property market in Australia, yet fob yourself off as an expert by producing the odd snippet of information that supports your case, while ignoring any other evidence contrary to your opinion.

I don't use the ignore function, because there are many people new to property investment who will read all the messages and need to see that this is not just another doom and gloom site.

LB, I'll ask you,
Have you read Jan Somers books???
What is wrong with her style of property investment over the medium to long term???

bye

 

[abcdiamond]

Originally posted by Bill.L
I don't use the ignore function, because there are many people new to property investment who will read all the messages and need to see that this is not just another doom and gloom site.

I hadn't thought of that aspect. I'm glad you mentioned it.

 

[sbe]

LB,

While I don't personally agree with your prediction, I'll always fight for your right to your opinion.

Opposing opinions (expressed properly of course) are thought provoking. If nothing else, we may look again at why we are doing something. The outcome of that could be to continue because you're on the right track, or realising you're doing it because of some other reason and should back off/stop whatever. At least we go in with our eye's open.

I've changed my guidance from an expected 35% fall to a 40-45% fall over the next 5 years.

I can't see that happening, as that would mean nearly half the price of the house. Even allowing for that fall to be 'in real terms, after CPI', the fall would be up to 30% over 5 years. While there may be isolated occuranced of this, I don't see this becomming a general reality. Of course, I'm open to a reasoned discussion as to where I may be wrong......

The thing to remember is, housing isn't basic economics, as there's an emotional aspect. If I don't want to sell my house at the current 'market price', I don't have to. Hence, this regulates the supply.

Yes, there will be exceptions (mortgagee auctions etc), but usually, supply lowers when prices soften. 45% would need an awful lot of people willing to burn $$$......... That may happen in ONE apparment development, but wholesale across all suburbs - that's a bit stratch - even for Niel Jenman's 'optimism'.....

The last time prices dropped markedly (yes, they can go down), it was a combination of a recession, high unemployment, high interest rates and a few other factors.

Cheerio

Simon.

 

[suggo]

sbe did you read Bills post, you don't agree that this is what LB does?

 

[see_change]

Suggo, Bill

I agree with your comments re LB.

Personally I have found LB's style of posting to be completely inconsistent and Bill's post once again points out the flaws in his style of posting .

There seems to be a school of thought that LB gets people thinking of things that they wouldn't have thought of otherwise , and that the "traffic " he generates is good for the forum.

Personally I got to the point where I found that being involved in responding to LB's posts was such a frustrating experience that it was detracting from my enjoyment of the forum. I seriously thought of leaving the forum, however decided that the ignore function was a better solution. I am yet to see any mindbreaking ideas come out of LB's post.

In reality I think that his outspoken views on the market falling inhibit realistic debate on whether values are falling , what could be the reasons if they were falling , and how people could take advantage of this ( though this has been covered by several poeple ).

Why do I say this ? Well I would be reluctant to express any such views , knowing that any comments would be quickly be taken out of context and the post would turn into a general property investing bashing exercise rather than a reasoned debate aiming at improving our understanding.

The main problem with using the ignore function is that once you've used it once, it's not hard to find other reasons to use it

I would be interested in seeing what would happen if no one responded to LB's posts.

At the moment , they turn into long epics that only serve as a platform for LB to grandstand on.

I have yet to see one constructive comment to come from LB on how to invest in property.

See Change