see_change said:
Ok ToGetProperty
How about this little comment from myself in the Debt = Wealth Post
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14580&page=2&pp=15
There are very few Genuine experienced long term property investors on this forum . I can count the ones I know on one hand and at least two of those have been decreasing their exposure to the market over the last year or two , because they have concerns.
There are very few Genuine experienced long term property investors on this forum . I can count the ones I know on one hand and at least two of those have been decreasing their exposure to the market over the last year or two , because they have concerns.
Most of the people who I know who are doing very well have basically made their money in the current cycle , and havn't experienced the actual reality of a down turn. There are some members of this forum who may well be in for a nasty shock in the next few years.
I have met several people over the last few years who went bankrupt in the previous property cycle by over exposure.
my opinion re LB's posts are not related to his actually conclusions , but to the
Total lack of supporting evidence he provides for his opinions
and as suggo puts it
I have decided there is not much point in trying to discuss any sort of facts contrary to your position. I have found, from past experiences, that you would either pick out only part of my post to reply to or ignore the post all together
See Change
See Change, nothing I can argue with your points. I bought a house at Doonside at A$230K one year ago from an investor who was bankrupt in the last cycle. I know a little bit about last cycle from him and I believe he is not an excellent investor because of selling. He sold all of his houses one year ago and rent back the house he sold to me.
On another hand, I really can't figure out how most normal people, like myself and not few RE professionals, can make money at 18% interest rate as suggested by ACE.
However, I know some RE professionals, the RE agent owners, who are buying now.
Last week, I pick up a deal for my friend for a house at A$270K around Blacktown areas. This is at least 20% below the peak value when no Blacktown houses was under A$360K during October/November 2003. And most interest thing is that after signing a contract, then went to do a pest report and building report. The building report is saying that this bedroom has a problem and another bedroom has another problem which is very familiar to my all other houses. My friend said to the agent that he does not want to go ahead with the deal because of the very bad building report. The vendor drops A$5000 straight away.
Again, I trust my view and I can very confidently view the market within next few months in the areas I know very well - Eastern Sydney, Inner City and Western Sydney. However, I really don't know, don't want to know and don't believe any prediction about next year and beyond.
Most importantly, I can survive and properous no matter who is correct or which way the market is going.
I fundamantly believe in Jan Somer's strategy - It is time in the market that counts. And re-read her books again recently.
Cheers
TGP