Sounds easy right but I would like to know how people here analyse sales. In short how to determine level of demmand, salability. etc.
From a simplistic standpoint if a suburb records 10 sales a year and one builds a unit development of 100 then there might be an oversupply? However if the suburb is an old established subburb then it might be because the properties are tightly held and a unit development of 100 might sell like hotcakes.
One can enlist a valuer to analyse the number of sales, units in da stage, and whats currently on the market to analyse sales\saleability. However in the end of the day atleast in my view there is a "clear" contradiction to EVERY position except for time on market, let me explain;
For instance;
1) Units > previous years sales (this indicates oversupply) - however as mentioned above this could be because of limited supply and no such oversupply exists its simply a case of supply now meeting demmand. Called testing the depth of the market (thanks for the jargon but totally useless - how do we predict/test it?)
Rather than reading the stats on this one I personally prefer to see if there are many DA approved sites for sale to detect oversupply.
What do you do?
2) high sales indicates an active highly saleable market - this is relative isnt it? what happens if the suburb is large? isnt it more to do with % sales rather than number of sales? i.e. a sales of 100 in a suburb of 10,000 is worse than 50 in a suburb of 3,000??
sales figures alone to me is pointless.
3) growing sales figures - it might be growing but still low compared to other suburbs (see point 2).
In short I have been developing for some time now and understand that statistics and analying markets only help you know in which direction the wind is blowing but sales analysis continues to irritate me.
The Matusik report has sometimes "time on market" analysis for suburbs which I think is the best way to sum it up. No need to analyse anything else in my view HOWEVER the matusik report is a newsletter and hence its not a publication so I cannot buy a single report to analyse all suburbs at once say like you can for cap growth e.g. residex. Does anyone know of one????
Anyways thought I would like to just pose the question to see what other peoples approach has been obviously its more relevant to those who develop rather than buy to flip single houses.
Cheers.
From a simplistic standpoint if a suburb records 10 sales a year and one builds a unit development of 100 then there might be an oversupply? However if the suburb is an old established subburb then it might be because the properties are tightly held and a unit development of 100 might sell like hotcakes.
One can enlist a valuer to analyse the number of sales, units in da stage, and whats currently on the market to analyse sales\saleability. However in the end of the day atleast in my view there is a "clear" contradiction to EVERY position except for time on market, let me explain;
For instance;
1) Units > previous years sales (this indicates oversupply) - however as mentioned above this could be because of limited supply and no such oversupply exists its simply a case of supply now meeting demmand. Called testing the depth of the market (thanks for the jargon but totally useless - how do we predict/test it?)
Rather than reading the stats on this one I personally prefer to see if there are many DA approved sites for sale to detect oversupply.
What do you do?
2) high sales indicates an active highly saleable market - this is relative isnt it? what happens if the suburb is large? isnt it more to do with % sales rather than number of sales? i.e. a sales of 100 in a suburb of 10,000 is worse than 50 in a suburb of 3,000??
sales figures alone to me is pointless.
3) growing sales figures - it might be growing but still low compared to other suburbs (see point 2).
In short I have been developing for some time now and understand that statistics and analying markets only help you know in which direction the wind is blowing but sales analysis continues to irritate me.
The Matusik report has sometimes "time on market" analysis for suburbs which I think is the best way to sum it up. No need to analyse anything else in my view HOWEVER the matusik report is a newsletter and hence its not a publication so I cannot buy a single report to analyse all suburbs at once say like you can for cap growth e.g. residex. Does anyone know of one????
Anyways thought I would like to just pose the question to see what other peoples approach has been obviously its more relevant to those who develop rather than buy to flip single houses.
Cheers.
