Check out everything you can .
All of the above are worthwhile.
If you wait until there is actual movement on prices it will be harder to pick up good buys as other people are already there .
High auction clearance rates are a good sign to look closer.
I look at what people are talking about on this forum , I call it the somersoft leading indicator.
The other thing I do which hasn't been mentioned is . Talk to the agents in the area. Most agents are honest and when you talk to several , recurring themes will become obvious.
I will ring up several and ask a simple open ended question such as " what is happening in the market in ...... at the moment " . I don't tell them why I am ringing up and what information I'm looking for , as giving them too much information may change their answer ( very important ) . Once they've had the opportunity to talk for as long as I can keep them going , if they haven't already given me the info I will ask them specific questions.
Covering the following areas.
Prices , increasing , decreasing , static
Amount of stock on market . Increasing , decreasing , tight , lot of properties on the market.
Future stock are they having difficulty getting stock ? eg this is of interest at the moment . We're looking at two seperate areas . In one we're being told that there's lots of properties about to hit the market after the election coming into spring. All agents in this area are advising us to hold off as there will be opportunities coming , In the other area we're being told listing are really tight and we're having to fight for listings and we're not getting people talking about putting property on the market
Number of sales , increasing , decreasing sales at the moment
When was the last peak in prices . In one area it's now in the other it's 2009 and prices came off around 10-15 % , but they're moving quickly now and some places are getting close to that .
How long is it taking to sell ? increasing , decreasing
Are there many highly motivated buyers out there ?
Who's buying ? First home owners , OO's local investors , interstate investors - ( these guys are smart - some hang around on this forum ).
Are you getting multiple bids on properties ? ( a good sign if people are starting to out bid others ) I've seen this change dramatically in parts of sydney over the last months.
If they're willing to chat on the phone for a long period of time , that in itself indicates they're not flat out.
You will always get some agents who will not give straight forward of misleading answers but when you've talked to a few in one area you will come up with a consensus opinion which is usually going to give you a good indicator of what is going to happen .
The only thing agents are bad at picking is what's going to happen next . You will have a few long term agents who have seen several cycles and are good at knowing what is going to happen however most seem to focus only on their immediate place and period , ie what can I sell this for today rather than what will it be worth in five years time. They're aren't usually aware of what is happening in other areas which will impact their area in the next months .
When we invested in logan , rocky and hobart in the last cycle all the agents were puzzled as to why we were buying there as prices never go up . .
Cliff