i think the floor is here.

Aaron Sice

Aaron Sice

resource states aren't picking up on this FHB handout as heavily as other non-resource states. i'm meeting a few people now who have been laid off in the resource industry - and a few people means they know 10 who talk, who will tell 5 more each etc etc.

however, i remember a large argument on SS a while back about Sydney being the place to watch is a turnaround is evidently on it's way.

well, one only has to look to Sydney's West to see the huge upswing in FHB and investor buying activity. CF+ deals are swinging.

cheaper parts of Melbourne are losing For Sale signs like they've suddenly been made illegal.

so tell me - if confidence is back, do YOU think that a floor can hold regardless of the next coming wave of bad news and correction?
 
Crikey!, I wouldn't call any floor until July 1. The FHOG is screwing things up. Lets see what happens from then on?

If the FHOG gets dropped or reduced, then watch out below, however I can't see it being dropped or reduced. They'd be mad to drop it now. If it stays, and it will, how much buying has been bought forward?

Plus, can't possibly call a bottom until unemployment tops out surely?


See ya's.
 
Not sure

Come 1st July , even if the Govt keep the increased FHOG , everyone who really wanted to buy , will have bought before hand due to the uncertainty .

So the FHO area will slow or ???

Then it comes down to what happens with unemployment.

Low rates will make things affordable if you have a job but if you don't have a job.

Lack of confidence about over all market will keep investors out in force so they're not going to be buying in mass .

Share market is going up at the moment , but certainly too early to call the bottom , and there are people around smarter than me who expect another leg down in the share market .

Time will tell.

Cliff
 
looking at a place that is asking 40% cheaper than identical houses that sold either side over the past 18 months. not sure if there is a floor there yet, but i thought if i knock another 10% off it could be good. Half price, blue chip suburb.....
 
I am with the too early to call crowd....I am waiting till July 2009 when the dust settles....

Too many variables.....because unemployment is a lagging indicator...it would take a couple of months for the true figures to show.

I will wait to see how this affects peoples psyche.....whilst FHB prices have gone up....the better part of the market is still consolidating!:(
 
yeah all good points - there's def. another slip in stocks coming.

i just see a few things adding up that weren't adding up before.

im not buying yet either, but it certainly makes for interesting watching.
 
Care to share where this suburbs is??;)

AUSPROP... said:
looking at a place that is asking 40% cheaper than identical houses that sold either side over the past 18 months. not sure if there is a floor there yet, but i thought if i knock another 10% off it could be good. Half price, blue chip suburb.....
Click to expand...
 
I'm on the 2 tiered bandwagon.

From my observations, here in SA anything below approx $450k is going like hotcakes and anything much over is hanging around for months.

I reckon once July 1st rolls around it won't matter if the FHO grant stays or goes as they all will have been flushed out in the past 6 months.

If unemployment then increases I think we'll see price drops but nothing liker the order of the carnage OS... our banking industry has been too diligent.

As news filters in of things stabilising OS I think unemployment and the market in general will consolidate but there won't be much median growth in property for some time (IMO).

R:)
 
Peter 14.7 said:
I know in my FHO market IP, the rentals have stopped rising and it is becoming a renters market.

Hard to say if the Gov will keep FHOG past July. Worth watching ABC Q&A tonight 9:30pm http://www.abc.net.au/tv/guide/netw/200904/programs/FA0807H008D2042009T213000.htm

as Tanya Pilsberik (?) Fed Housing Minister will be grilled as special subject.

Peter
Click to expand...

And Satyajit Das will on the panel, who'll probably put Tanya in her place if she tries to talk things up.

Whilst I agree there's noone on the planet who knows what will transpire and to what extent including the 'experts', Satyajit is a smart cookie and always makes sense - its really hard to argue with him unless youre in denial. He called the credit crunch in 2006 anticipating well before his D&G peers.
 
The observation to make is it seems in Australia whenever we want economic growth we boost FHO Housing. GST in 2000, etc..

That itself and the fact all of us want a home and over 70% have one is one of the big reason the US and AUS is different and property one of the best investments.

God Bless Australia:)

Peter 14.7
 
quick note, had a few drinks :)

I know a certain area in sydney (not west suprise suprise!)

Where prices have gone up $70-100k + in middle class area and listings gone from 170 for sale to 68 listings and of those 68 40% are under offer...

This is a reoccouring consistancy I am seeing...

Ok sure that might get inflated, lets say after july 1 they fall by 20-40k thats still $50k gain on each house...

Shoot me down, however every boom has its starting point, and our research out there shows last boom started in worse stats then now....

The is ample opportunity out there... and there is always a reason why not to invest, however now i see some facts out there that supports undervalue in plenty parts of my fine state, which i am endevouring.

I cannot comment on all states or markets, however there is opportunity out there, even if you do buy and sells i see plenty of money out there to be made.

Goodluck to those who are getting results, and those who ave reasons, i wish you best for next time there is opportunity... opportinity is always around us, opportunity was here all thru the last booms and the last busts, i guess in uncertain times, and changing markets and any market to be exact we need to have an open mind and understand what lies ahead and what may lie ahead....

FHOG or not, i can rattle of many deals i coulda woulda shoulda bought over the last 5 years in a stale negative market i could have made which i didnt (as i only have a certain amount of money/time/energy, to invest) which could have been very profitable.

I guess it depends wheather your going to sit on fence and have your reasons or make action and get results.

Time will tell and common sense will prevail.

However congrats for those who are making it happen.

well, that wasnt the short post i was planing on making hey??

:)

Nath.

p.s. you cannot tailor the cloth to sui the coat, however you can tailor the coat to suit the cloth.
 
Nathan said:
Shoot me down, however every boom has its starting point, and our research out there shows last boom started in worse stats then now....

.
Click to expand...


Ok, lets assume the last boom started in 1997?

I can see a similarity. Lots of positive cash flow properties.



Plenty of big differences though.


97 was 7 years after the start of the last recession. 2009 is just at the start.

97 had steadily decreasing unemployment. Unemployment in 97 was 8% and had fallen from 11% in 92 at the end of the recession. Today, unemployment is heading to 8% and higher.

97 was the middle of a strong business and share market run, which had it end up with never before seen low valuations and a subsequent bust in 2000. Today we've had the share bust already, and business is on it's knees.

Has a property boom ever started at the beginning of a recession? I'd be happy to hear of one? It's never happened.



Just some useless trivia. Not intended as advice, just adding to discussion.

See ya's.
 
Whole heartedly agree....you have a whole generation who has not experienced a recession....bet you that a large majority of people buying are under 30.

Will be interesting to see what happens once unemployment hits 8%!:eek: That will be a real confidence dampner.

I not convinced that the market has turned yet.....this could be the dead cat bounce See Change was talking about.

One would have to be brave to get in now without a clear sign of a turnaorund....my personal feeling is that the Feds will slowly being back the grant down over a year or two. The last thing they will want is a "sub prime" like situation just before the next election at the end of 2010, early 2011.

topcropper said:
Has a property boom ever started at the beginning of a recession? I'd be happy to hear of one? It's never happened.

See ya's.
Click to expand...
 
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