Interest Rates
- Thread starter nightowl
- Start date
Hiya
Average of the 5 year market is about 6.75.
Yes there are some 6.29s but they do not represent the bulk volume.
Looks like immediate rate rises are on hold but a spike to ?? is still possible if the RBA wants to play silly buggers.
I personally dont feel a "war" in the middle east will have any bearing on rates unless the oil price goes to over 45 a barrel
Ta
rolf
Average of the 5 year market is about 6.75.
Yes there are some 6.29s but they do not represent the bulk volume.
Looks like immediate rate rises are on hold but a spike to ?? is still possible if the RBA wants to play silly buggers.
I personally dont feel a "war" in the middle east will have any bearing on rates unless the oil price goes to over 45 a barrel
Ta
rolf
Hi all,
The following is an excerpt form todays Daily Telegraph:
"With the drought worsening and a conflict with Iraq becoming more likely, the Reserve Bank kept rates on hold yesterday - the eighth month in a row that interest rates have been left at 4.75%"
"ANZ chief economist Saul Eslake said financial markets and a growing number of economists were "betting" on a rate cut within three months"
"The financial markets are giving some odds on a rate cut in two or three months" Mr. Eslake said
What are peoples thoughts on this? Of the notion that rates may not only stagnate, but might even drop?
Jamie.
The following is an excerpt form todays Daily Telegraph:
"With the drought worsening and a conflict with Iraq becoming more likely, the Reserve Bank kept rates on hold yesterday - the eighth month in a row that interest rates have been left at 4.75%"
"ANZ chief economist Saul Eslake said financial markets and a growing number of economists were "betting" on a rate cut within three months"
"The financial markets are giving some odds on a rate cut in two or three months" Mr. Eslake said
What are peoples thoughts on this? Of the notion that rates may not only stagnate, but might even drop?
Jamie.
This is such a hard question, now let me see....The general direction of interest rates from the early 70's to 1990 was up. From 1990 to now it has been down. Anymore questions??
Should I add the following market maxims; The trend is your friend, don't fight the trend, and buy higher highs and sell lower lows.
bye
Should I add the following market maxims; The trend is your friend, don't fight the trend, and buy higher highs and sell lower lows.
bye
Bill wrote,
Should I add the following market maxims; The trend is your friend, don't fight the trend, and buy higher highs and sell lower lows.
Silly thought really however I read this as:
buy higher highs - buy when rates are high
Sell lower lows - sell when rates are low
Is this how other people read this?
Should I add the following market maxims; The trend is your friend, don't fight the trend, and buy higher highs and sell lower lows.
Silly thought really however I read this as:
buy higher highs - buy when rates are high
Sell lower lows - sell when rates are low
Is this how other people read this?
"buy higher highs - buy when rates are high
Sell lower lows - sell when rates are low
Is this how other people read this?"
Buy higher highs etc is a common saying in share trading. It basically means you go where the market or trend is going...eg if a share has been making new lows you don't go and buy but sell as the market is going down.
In an interest rate context it means that if interest rates have been falling they are more likely to keep on falling.
Sell lower lows - sell when rates are low
Is this how other people read this?"
Buy higher highs etc is a common saying in share trading. It basically means you go where the market or trend is going...eg if a share has been making new lows you don't go and buy but sell as the market is going down.
In an interest rate context it means that if interest rates have been falling they are more likely to keep on falling.
Hi all,
My opinion only and not to relied upon etc. etc.
If the war is protracted > 3 months expect cuts.
If the war is short < 6 weeks expect rises.
Just a gut feel based on past experience of glitches in world trade - and yes war is about trade and resources NOT ideals.
regards, Michael Croft
My opinion only and not to relied upon etc. etc.
If the war is protracted > 3 months expect cuts.
If the war is short < 6 weeks expect rises.
Just a gut feel based on past experience of glitches in world trade - and yes war is about trade and resources NOT ideals.
regards, Michael Croft
Article appearing in todays Melbourne Age regarding interest rates;
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/05/02/1051382083953.html
It seems the consensus is rates are headed down if anything
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/05/02/1051382083953.html
It seems the consensus is rates are headed down if anything
I left the finance industry about 9 years ago, Back then you could get your finance fom an O/S bank and have the rising dollar pay off the loan.
BUT the dollar **** itself so bad that it went to 49c remember that. Well peoples debts doubled and they couldn't even pay the interest many bankruptcies they were all organised thru Westpac from memeory. BUT now the dollar is charging and will break 70c by the end of the year, A debt now of say $100000AUD at 62c is $100000 obviously, but with the aussie dollar at 70c it would be $70000. Simply enquire with a bank to see if they still do them. I think the government passed legislation so it couldn't be done. I may be wrong though as it was eons ago.
BUT the dollar **** itself so bad that it went to 49c remember that. Well peoples debts doubled and they couldn't even pay the interest many bankruptcies they were all organised thru Westpac from memeory. BUT now the dollar is charging and will break 70c by the end of the year, A debt now of say $100000AUD at 62c is $100000 obviously, but with the aussie dollar at 70c it would be $70000. Simply enquire with a bank to see if they still do them. I think the government passed legislation so it couldn't be done. I may be wrong though as it was eons ago.
re reading my last post I got some figures wrong yes it was 2 in the morning,
A $100000USD loan at 62c is $161000AUD if the dollar rises to 70c the loan becomes $142000AUD loan. Many people did this and when it was in their favour they saved thousands.
I'll try and think clearly when I am on the net in the earlly hours of the morning
A $100000USD loan at 62c is $161000AUD if the dollar rises to 70c the loan becomes $142000AUD loan. Many people did this and when it was in their favour they saved thousands.
I'll try and think clearly when I am on the net in the earlly hours of the morning
interestng to read of the history of borrowing abroad...
sounds like a risky move as has been pointed out already
(that is, what if rates move the other direction?)
--> why not simply trade currencies if one was so confident to be able to predict it's movement?
FYI, I'm at the "planning 1st property purchase", so I need to answer the following for myself (these are not questions for people to answer, merely a FYI into my background):
1) Do I take out a fixed / variable loan --> what is the implication upon refinancing for further properties - i understand it is a challenge to refinance fixed rate loans.
2) Can I afford my repayments at 30% reduced rental + 100% increase in interest rates? Is my entry to property investment worth this risk (however low the chance of occurance)
3) What will be the real effect of interest rate movements on property values? .. I.E, if rates do rise - to what extent will property drop (all things remaining equal)?
Cheers,
CoolStyle
sounds like a risky move as has been pointed out already
(that is, what if rates move the other direction?)
--> why not simply trade currencies if one was so confident to be able to predict it's movement?
FYI, I'm at the "planning 1st property purchase", so I need to answer the following for myself (these are not questions for people to answer, merely a FYI into my background):
1) Do I take out a fixed / variable loan --> what is the implication upon refinancing for further properties - i understand it is a challenge to refinance fixed rate loans.
2) Can I afford my repayments at 30% reduced rental + 100% increase in interest rates? Is my entry to property investment worth this risk (however low the chance of occurance)
3) What will be the real effect of interest rate movements on property values? .. I.E, if rates do rise - to what extent will property drop (all things remaining equal)?
Cheers,
CoolStyle
