Investors direct Bris meeting

[dheath]

Hi all,

Anyone else go to this seminar?

I'm curious to see what everyone else took out of this meeting, it seemed very negative and doom and gloom towards future capital gains, due to the credit crunch that Bill Zheng believes has not even begun to hit the US. He implied that once credit dries up not even location will help us.

Not sure about that!!! but he's the expert.....

Time to sell up?

I think I will at least lock in some LOC equity, but have too many good located SEQ properties (near bech) to want to sell any.

Any comments?
All the best,

D.

 

[s_t]

Not sure about that!!! but he's the expert.....

On tax.....

I'm beginning to think (if I haven't always thought?) that there is no such thing as an expert on things such as 'how bad will the credit crunch be'. Such a forecast is very dependant on so many unpredictably factors.

 

[Mry]

I would just remember the number two rules of property investing.

1 - People have to live somewhere.
2 - They generally prefer houses as opposed to living on the street.

There's always going to be demand for property. I take the credit problems as a sign that getting loans is going to get harder as time goes on (get stuff now), and that interest rates will go up (fix em).

 

[oc1]

I'm curious to see what everyone else took out of this meeting, it seemed very negative and doom and gloom towards future capital gains, due to the credit crunch that Bill Zheng believes has not even begun to hit the US. He implied that once credit dries up not even location will help us.

Not sure about that!!!

E.g. NZ prices have dropped (and not just 1-2%). Funding is harder. Many Low-Doc loans are now at a 65% LVR. Don't assume it can't happen here.
The point is to control what YOU can and protect yourself.

In relation to the seminar, a lot of Bill's stuff was based on Harry Dent's book in terms of the baby boomers. What he failed to say was that, here in Australia, we don't peak in our spending cycle until 2020 unlike the US (2010). This is due to the immigration occuring in the 70's.

 

[dheath]

I just remembered,

He also suggested that prices could fall up to 20% in the next 6months - 2years, if we don't decouple from the US we will fall hard with them. Also that the banks could freeze LOCs if they chose to and to use a offset a/c instead.

Anyone see this:

http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2008/s2201740.htm



D.

 

[aaarghhh]

1 - People have to live somewhere.
2 - They generally prefer houses as opposed to living on the street.

There's always going to be demand for property.

Zing!!! ROTFLMAO.

 

[DavidMc]

I just remembered,

He also suggested that prices could fall up to 20% in the next 6months - 2years, if we don't decouple from the US we will fall hard with them.

I thought his 'worst case' scenario was:
Moderate growth (~5%) for the next 1-3 years
Then large falls (20-40%) over a period of 5-7 years

His best case scenario was Moderate growth and Australia will avoid a recession.

Then I believe he said he is 'leaning towards' the best case scenario.

 

[APerry]

He also suggested that prices could fall up to 20% in the next 6months - 2years, if we don't decouple from the US we will fall hard with them.

We are decoupled, we are hitched to China and India.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I just remembered,

He also suggested that prices could fall up to 20% in the next 6months - 2years, if we don't decouple from the US we will fall hard with them. Also that the banks could freeze LOCs if they chose to and to use a offset a/c instead.

Anyone see this:

http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2008/s2201740.htm



D.

thanks for the link

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I just remembered,

He also suggested that prices could fall up to 20% in the next 6months - 2years, if we don't decouple from the US we will fall hard with them. Also that the banks could freeze LOCs if they chose to and to use a offset a/c instead.

Anyone see this:

http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2008/s2201740.htm


D.

I think there was a topic created Interesting

Cant find the ss forum topic, but there is a forum on the abc site. One subcategory is called "debtland" could be interesting. Im gonna have a look