That's interesting. I heard John speak in Aug 05 at the Reno Kings workshop and he said the same thing about Sydney then
.kaf
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Investors Direct Seminar 5th April Sydney-Unreal!
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That's interesting. I heard John speak in Aug 05 at the Reno Kings workshop and he said the same thing about Sydney then
.kaf
That's interesting. I heard John speak in Aug 05 at the Reno Kings workshop and he said the same thing about Sydney then
kaf
One of the things that John did mention is that his stat model can't predict things like the subprime issue. Thus, those events will always have an impact on his forcast.
When he talk about ADL, he mentioned that some time ago (a year or 2) he forcast growth only if the mining industry had an impact there as it did. That was the risk. Moving forward he doesn't forcast much growth in ADL.
Rgds,
James
Hey James
Sure, forecasting is a tricky thing, as we all know. I just think if you predict growth for an area for long enough it will eventually come and John will eventually be right with his Sydney prediction.
Dazzling put it nicely - you can't own all of a city but you'll only buy a small part of it where you have some input / opportunity for picking growth even if the rest stays flat.
So those broad predictions really don't help much at all and it just makes the people who buy or have bought in Sydney feel good and the rest ignores his advice or do their own research or, worse, don't buy or buy into an area they don't know anything about.
Just my thoughts. I do like John's suburb reports to start my research with but they are on a much finer scale.
Cheers
kaf
Sure, forecasting is a tricky thing, as we all know. I just think if you predict growth for an area for long enough it will eventually come and John will eventually be right with his Sydney prediction
.Dazzling put it nicely - you can't own all of a city but you'll only buy a small part of it where you have some input / opportunity for picking growth even if the rest stays flat.
So those broad predictions really don't help much at all and it just makes the people who buy or have bought in Sydney feel good and the rest ignores his advice or do their own research or, worse, don't buy or buy into an area they don't know anything about.
Just my thoughts. I do like John's suburb reports to start my research with but they are on a much finer scale.
Cheers
kaf
Hiya
I'm going to the Perth Seminar.
Looking forward to it.
I'm going to the Perth Seminar.
Looking forward to it.
Are you sure 8 metres is correct
. I thought scientists where talking more in the realms of inches.http://www.ozcoasts.org.au/indicators/sea_level_rise.jsp
Dont panic sell those waterfront properties yet OK!
MJK
Dont panic sell those waterfront properties yet OK!
MJK
Hi Jodie! I know this has somewhat been answered already, but thought I'd throw another view into the mix. Last Saturday I went to Michael Yardney's seminar in Brisbane (also going to Bill Zheng/John Edwards tomorrow
) and Michael Yardney was also "not hugely bullish" about Adelaide over the long term. He threw up a chart of ABS population forecasts for the year 2030. Growth between the base year (2001? or 2006?) and 2030 was broadly in 3 bands:High growth: Perth, SE QLD, and NT: > 40%
Medium growth: Sydney and Melbourne: 25%-ish
Low growth: Adelaide and Hobart: < 15%
I perceived that he felt that property in all of the top 5 have reasonable prospects over the 20 year timeframe, ie Perth, Brisbane, Darwin, Sydney and Melbourne, but the buying conditions are currently more favourable in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, so for now, that's where his focus is.
I attended today with another forum-mite.
Felt the info could have been condensed greatly without losing anything, time is a valuable commodity for us all. Bill Zheng would benefit from taking a public speaking course and might next time not ask the audience repeatedly if 'they are understanding this' as it was really distracting, though that's just my view. He seems like a really nice, approachable and genuine guy.
John Edwards was a more polished presenter and had some recent data to show, most interestingly for me that Perth property was actually growing again. One point I would make would be the validity of any model Edwards seeks to put forward when he is adding his own discretion to the mix, he mentioned that he filters using his own judgement which throws up a large red flag when you are talking about a model's predictive ability (It's something you can't exactly repeat when you add human judgement to the mix). Also for a statistician I think he needs to do better than the standard grab bag testimonials (Thank you... my property went up 150% in 2 days after buying your report!).. How about median hot suburb returns, comparison to surrounding areas and outperformance compared to the city or something semi rigorous like that? Also some minor queries about his chart... I disagree with the risk adjusted returns chart he had in a number of areas starting with the share market performance figure he had listed, and how property volatility is measured, anyway they were minor points.
There was an extended plug for a 4k (-1k if you sign up now) seminar from a name and dollar figure dropping Scottish lady, love the accent. Really hard to say more about her apart from the seminar marketing consumed half a forest and makes a person like me (guru resistant) so skeptical it's hard to think clearly, handle with caution though potentially fine I guess.
I have 14 pages of notes and lots of things I disagree with though am reluctant to bang them all out here as it would take me a long time! Also I was completely underwhelmed by the sources Zheng mentioned for the theme of his entire presentation and suggestions about how you would inform yourself about what was happening in the US (A big plank for his views).
Having said that there was plenty of good quality info that I do agree with, I have basically been doing everything Zheng suggested for over a year now so am not sure I will changing anything as a result of today. Josko's summary seems pretty accurate.
Felt the info could have been condensed greatly without losing anything, time is a valuable commodity for us all. Bill Zheng would benefit from taking a public speaking course and might next time not ask the audience repeatedly if 'they are understanding this' as it was really distracting, though that's just my view. He seems like a really nice, approachable and genuine guy.
John Edwards was a more polished presenter and had some recent data to show, most interestingly for me that Perth property was actually growing again. One point I would make would be the validity of any model Edwards seeks to put forward when he is adding his own discretion to the mix, he mentioned that he filters using his own judgement which throws up a large red flag when you are talking about a model's predictive ability (It's something you can't exactly repeat when you add human judgement to the mix). Also for a statistician I think he needs to do better than the standard grab bag testimonials (Thank you... my property went up 150% in 2 days after buying your report!).. How about median hot suburb returns, comparison to surrounding areas and outperformance compared to the city or something semi rigorous like that? Also some minor queries about his chart... I disagree with the risk adjusted returns chart he had in a number of areas starting with the share market performance figure he had listed, and how property volatility is measured, anyway they were minor points.
There was an extended plug for a 4k (-1k if you sign up now) seminar from a name and dollar figure dropping Scottish lady, love the accent. Really hard to say more about her apart from the seminar marketing consumed half a forest and makes a person like me (guru resistant) so skeptical it's hard to think clearly, handle with caution though potentially fine I guess.
I have 14 pages of notes and lots of things I disagree with though am reluctant to bang them all out here as it would take me a long time! Also I was completely underwhelmed by the sources Zheng mentioned for the theme of his entire presentation and suggestions about how you would inform yourself about what was happening in the US (A big plank for his views).
Having said that there was plenty of good quality info that I do agree with, I have basically been doing everything Zheng suggested for over a year now so am not sure I will changing anything as a result of today. Josko's summary seems pretty accurate.
Thanks for the update re Adelaide everyone. I guess if I'm going to continue to invest in Adelaide I'll be bucking the trend.
This is the first time I have seen residex be bearish on property prices.
It is very odd.
It is very odd.
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