Iron ore dropping
- Thread starter blackenator
- Start date
cheeses what a quarter can do for financial stress levels to hit the moon.
Alliance: down another 50%
Logicam: back into profit
Mc Alaeese, now nearly showing profit even at these low levels by some well timed double averaging down
Min Resources: yeah cut lost 10% given the rest of the strength feel quite happy I only lost 10%
NRW: still hold 50% of the position, no topping up, for this to recever I need it to double in price, not likely
Southern Cross Electrical: yeah they did a share buy back really put a price under the floor, only 20% to go to break even.
Indonesia will be the next country that will need iron ore. Its new president mentioned the main focus for 2015 is infrastructure and agriculture. I think it will be the next china.
There will never be another China. Not now nor in 20 lifetimes.
It will end up a case study in how not to bring an economy into the 21st century. They've gotten away with massive misallocation of capital and huge debt mountains because they have a huge balance of trade surplus and accumulated multi trillion foreign reserves.
Indo has a policy of value adding to its commodity resources rather than exporting. I can't see how that'll work in the long run given China has at least 30% over capacity in all these sectors and is already the cheapest supplier in town. China's pouring money in and partnering to build Indo capacity. I can't see this ending well.
Got a mate in SA who's gear is parked up. Now broke and picking up odd jobs. Still owes me a bundle. His gear goes to auction in the coming months. Might get 10 cents on the dollar if it even sells.
Literally hundreds of machines parked up, both in town and the side of the roads up here. Salmon, McMahon, Orionstone, Emeco, Hastings, Komatsu, MH Hire.......................
Pretty grim when you drive out to the mines!
pinkboy
Someone's being setup as the patsy......
That's what we call a very good "dead cat bounce". Miners share price going down again, looks like iron ore ($68+) is resuming it's downtrend towards historicals low of $30 just like oil which has fallen even more and has reached $45 levels. Unleaded 91 is almost a dollar now at my local pump.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/mining-jobs-lost-as-australian-iron-ore-mines-close-20150124-12wn1h.html
Flow on effect to property could extend statewide. I am sure many a mining town will become ghost towns soon.
WA and QLD are gonna be likely casualties this bust.
China seems to be going on the same path japan did 20 years back. Their stock market has gone way up and margin loans doubled this past half year. Now their speculative property boom is over investors are flocking to stock markets.
Think Freckle will likely be right but we shall see, maybe a European miracle?
What evidence do you have to suggest this? Japan 20 years ago was the start of a declining working population with more elderly moving into retirement. China does not have this problem and has a long way to go for urbanisation to hit developed nation levels.
They are in as bad if not worse position than Japan. Their one child policy skewed their natural demographic towards Japan's but even more so.
Strangely they're heading towards a labour shortage in the coming years. Not enough work age population and too many old people to look after.
Their population growth rate has contracted to 0.5-0.6%. Half what is was 10 years ago.. They need 2.1% just to maintain their current population.
They are in as bad if not worse position than Japan. Their one child policy skewed their natural demographic towards Japan's but even more so.
Strangely they're heading towards a labour shortage in the coming years. Not enough work age population and too many old people to look after.
Their population growth rate has contracted to 0.5-0.6%. Half what is was 10 years ago.. They need 2.1% just to maintain their current population.
Thanks freckle for the stats. Was not thinking about demographics though, my bad not stating things clearly.
Was actually comparing China to Japan in terms of how their stock market has been going, with an almost triple increase in margin trading loans to 1.1trillion yuan(~223billion AUD) since June last year. Clearly speculation from property has changed to stocks, fueled by the recent cut in interest rates meant to prop up their slide in GDP. Beijing has since moved to ban all new margin loans at the biggest 3 brokerages there.
Japan had a similar sort of asset bubble in property and stocks which ended in the 1991 crash which they have not recovered from. They call it the lost two decades now...
Probably somewhat off topic, but one can easily make the link from China fortunes to Aussie fortunes and indirectly to the fortunes of the iron ore industry.
Watch this. Princess of the Yen
It is interesting to say the least. The things that interest me are not only 'what' they do but 'why' they do it. The answer is not often what you'd expect.
It is interesting to say the least. The things that interest me are not only 'what' they do but 'why' they do it. The answer is not often what you'd expect.
Update, Alliance, just holding, not selling not adding.
Logicam: sold a bit into the recent share buy back, half yr result ok, now holding.
Mc Aleasee: offloaded 30% in the recent (month or so ago) price jump. Now just holding, not buyer further yet.
Min Resources: as mentioned out
NRW: still hold 50% position, not adding.
Southern Cross Electrical: exited into the share buy back with a 10% odd loss.
Had to run just to go slowly backwards.
Not my idea of investing.
