feed on this doom and gloomers
http://www.theage.com.au/business/t...-rate-posts-surprise-fall-20120906-25fwm.html
http://www.theage.com.au/business/t...-rate-posts-surprise-fall-20120906-25fwm.html
Is Australia facing the first recession in 20 years?
- Thread starter hobo-jo
- Start date
quoted for truth.
There in is the problem.
our costs are high and productivity is constrained by outdated laws. As aa employer I find employee don't mind giving ridiculous things like leave loading for and extra per hr rate and underside that if we don't make money then no one has a job. But we are lucky to be small and not under any award. If were in Retail we could not have this flexibility.That is why we all want ot shop on Sunday but stores cannot stay open with the rates they pay.
Here is another one
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/busines...o-administration/story-fn7j19iv-1226464571455
Thos one is particularly worrying as they are not pure retail but into food as well. I wonder how you retrain a 55 year old immigrant lady who only skill is making sandwiches for the new economy promised by Carbon Tax changes???
You cannot.
Peter
Are ANZ and Westpac "Doom and Gloomers" given their skepticism over the headline rate?
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/09/anz-fires-abs-labour-data/
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/09/bill-evans-unpacks-the-participation-rate/
LOL, more confirmation bias from the MacroBear site?
The drop in participation rates is the last refuge of the desperate bear. If more people are not looking for a job, then that might actually be a good thing. It might mean there are more people who feel wealthy and comfortable enough not to have to work. If people do want to work, then they should look for a job and be included in the participation rate. The important figure is the unemployment rate, and that has been more or less steady at close to 5.2% for the past year.
I disagree. The Rate is only one macro measure. Like the median price of a suburbs, it can be wrong.
I want to know how many jobs are full-time versus part time, in what industries are they, are they sustainable, is the participation rate higher or lower becasue:
people are more comfortable
are giving up n despair
moving to other benefits like Pensioner i.e. as Baby Boomers kick in.
are leaving the workforce to have babies, August is peak month for births
These do matter. 30 new jobs in McDonalds does not excite me for our future
Peter
Thanks, but I'm not sure which part of my post you disagreed with there?
The unemployment rate is the most important figure.
The participation rate doesn't tell us much at all, as we don't know why people stopped participating.
Shadow, regardless of any MB agenda by posting articles confirming their stance, my point was there are institutions and individuals reading more into the report than the headline unemployment rate who I would hardly consider to be "doom and gloomers".
So are you MacroBears in the comments section on MB?
LOL now we agree. That is the trouble with all these stats that what does the participation rate REALLY tell us.
Like the boom in car sales in April. Where more people buying cars or was it because their was massive backlog from japan and thailand re floods and disasters. From friends i know in the car sales it was the later.
The trouble is the vast public "can't handle the truth".
The Government of the day (Lib or Labor) is not willing to tell people the truth. To actually govern. Less they be branded with we are idiots and to blame. and when they do like the Kennett Gov in VIC they get dumped for the hard medicine. Thank God the RBA is independent.
My strategy when GF hit was keep costs as low as possible, secure my income and hold tight, moved all the super in interest bearing accounts. So far it is all good but costs have grown. Same old same old for the future.
Peter
They're just trying to justify their previous calls on rate cuts and employment, which now look quite wrong. I think we're very close to the bottom of the interest rate cutting cycle, and I think the economy is stronger than many analysts believe. Today's employment figures have backed up the solid GDP figures.
MacroBears ? aren't they organic food buying, gay dudes with beards?
Peter
PS some humour
My anecdotal experience is that employment is not growing - maybe in the mining sector.
Look at the last 12 months' job losses and where.
Not many sectors are hiring on extra staff - most are shedding.
Yes; there are some companies doing well, expanding and all that - but it's not the majority I'd say.
When the Gubbmint puts out employment figures, are they comparing apples with apples?
I reckon not; I reckon that for every full-time permanent job that is lost, there might be a full-time job to fill it, but I'll wager it is two part-time or casual jobs created.
That's not growth in my view; it's contraction.
hobo
Once again you're being very spare with the truth.
Your original prediction of a 15-20% drop was made in September 2008, even after the fall from peak prices we are stiil about 10% above Sept.08 medians
Leaving your prediction out by 25-30%.
We now need a 25-30%+ crash to reach your target.
My expectation has always been a 15-20% drop from the peak. Like many I was surprised by the bounce driven by FHO incentives, rate cuts and loosened FIRB laws. So a few years ago I thought the peak was in and it wasn't (yet).
I don't expect prices will fall 25-30% (in nominal terms) from current prices, but thanks for the disingenuous attempt to put words in my mouth.
P.S. What data are you basing this on "we are stiil about 10% above Sept.08 medians" ?
In all fairness, hobo-jo does have an interest in and firm grasp of economics and his posts are rarely opinion pieces. If facts and figures are tiresome and boring, well so be it. I've never known him to scaremonger or preach doom and gloom for the sake of it. I don't necessarily agree with his take on the real estate market or the economy in general (though I often do), but Property Market Economics has been near dead of late and I suspect this would have happened much earlier if hobo hadn't been here to offer his contrarian perspective.
hobo
Once again you try to rewrite what you have posted, in August 2011(after the last peak) you were specific in standing by the predicted 15-20% drop from September 2008
http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?p=825303#post825303
Quote:
Originally Posted by turk
how accurate was your prediction, of prices dropping 15-20% from Sept 08.
"I stand by that prediction so I guess we'll see. I can't remember exactly when I started suggesting 15-20% (I'd have thought mid 2009 when seeing the effects of the boost), but if it was September 2008 then you excuse my timing being a little off given the vendors boost which started 1 month later"
Well to be honest I don't remember my 15-20% call being that early... (September 2008). Can you provide a link to where I said it?
yeah i gotta admit, i don't remember it being that early either.
Sept 09 was more like when the "predictions" by everyone, bulls and bears alike, started.
Sept 09 was more like when the "predictions" by everyone, bulls and bears alike, started.
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