It's Official: Property prices on the slide

[djsherly]

Hi Folks,

Just an FYI - I think it's good to see prices receding now, at a slower rate.

http://smh.com.au/articles/2004/05/26/1085461837869.html

Enjoy your day (all 12 degrees of it for the Canberran forumites!)

Chris.

 

[Aceyducey]

Note the report elsewhere in this forum that points out how fallacious Property Monitors' figures are!!!

Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[djsherly]

Note the report elsewhere in this forum that points out how fallacious Property Monitors' figures are!!!

Cheers,

Aceyducey

I've heard about that before, but 'news' like this always feeds into wider sentiment. It could be a chicken before the egg thing, but any news which could slow down the market a little rather than puff it up further has to be welcome, in my little opinion.

Chris.

 

[MJK]

Sounds like a headline grabber...why no figures on Brisbane and perth!
Not dramatic enough for the SMH.

MJK

 

[see_change]

Sounds like a headline grabber...why no figures on Brisbane and perth!
Not dramatic enough for the SMH.

MJK

You'll probably find some info on Sydney's northern and Wesern Suburbs in the fine print

See Change

 

[Aceyducey]

Here's the actual tables from Australian Property Monitors.

You'll note the extreme spin used by the media....ie: calling Sydney down for the quarter....but still has a 13.58% growth for houses in the past year - still higher than the long-term average.....Melbourne is much more conservative at only 3.2% up for the year for houses (down for units)...below the long-term average.

Taking into account that APM's figures are based on a % of sales - not all sales, and that quarterly price figures are often distorted by releases of estates & units, reactions to legislative changes, seasonal trends in purchasing & other short-term impacts that smooth out over longer periods.....

...I'd be much more inclined to look at the annual figures from APM rather than the quarterly results for a guide to price movements.

Also of interest is the extreme change in the number of property sales except in Canberra -dropping by up to 2/3rds in Sydney & Melbourne in house sales....I do not know if this is due to smaller samples reported to APM, so they are capturing less of the sales, to seasonal factors (January & even February are slow months...but so is the 2nd half of December), legislative changes (such as auction rules in the East), more owners sitting tight on their properties rather than selling into an uncertain market or simply the swing from a sellers' market to a buyers' market....probably a combination of these.

The key tables:

HOUSES
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
.............(Oct-Dec 03).........(Jan-Mar 04).....Quarterly....Yearly
City......# Sales...Median $...# Sales...Median $...Movement...Movement
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Sydney.....12,119...$497,500.....5,461...$460,000....-7.54%.....13.58%
Melbourne..12,682...$310,000.....4,039...$270,000...-12.90%......3.20%
Canberra......993...$360,000.......835...$360,000.....0.00%.....21.42%
Brisbane....9,230...$295,000.....4,526...$292,000....-1.02%.....27.23%
Gold Coast..1,890...$390,000.......922...$385,000....-1.28%.....23.30%
Adelaide....5,267...$238,500.....4,592...$245,000.....2.73%.....20.69%
Perth.......7,467...$250,000.....5,066...$250,000.....0.00%.....16.28%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------


UNITS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
.............(Oct-Dec 03).........(Jan-Mar 04).....Quarterly....Yearly
City......# Sales...Median $...# Sales...Median $...Movement...Movement
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Sydney......9,340...$375,000.....4,278...$365,000....-2.67%......4.29%
Melbourne...3,335...$276,000.....1,118...$252,000....-8.70%.....-2.33%
Canberra......474...$280,000.......449...$281,000.....0.36%.....19.45%
Brisbane....3,359...$220,000.....1,490...$227,750.....3.52%.....23.78%
Gold Coast..2,504...$247,000.....1,261...$260,000.....5.26%.....26.83%
Adelaide....1,596...$175,250.....1,367...$182,000.....3.85%.....20.53%
Perth.........412...$174,000.......322...$178,250.....2.44%.....18.83%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: www.homepriceguide.com.au (02) 9339 8200.


Cheers,

Aceyducey