L.A. Now Smaller Than Melb! Should We Grow Our Regional Centres?

[our obsession]

With that, farming community population estimated to fall-scenario, "here" it's simply a case of land being owned by less few.

Farms got bigger, so, what used to be 10 families within the 10k radius is now 3 families.

With the increased technology, satellite gear/auto steer/bigger ..."more efficient" machinery, instead of employing 3 workers on the farm, (and with that can be families with that person), now it's one.

Plus, also, the offspring notso keen to carry on the farming tradition, (as days gone by), so farm sold up, bought by southern multi millionaire operators, and a workteam may be allocated up from ..say, Ballarat to help out at cropping and harvest, so only one person employed up here, as opposed again, to days of past, 3 families within that farm.

It is easily dropping population here.

The people either head to metro, or whatever nearest regional city that they choose.

Eg Bendigo, Geelong, Ballarat, Horsham, Mildura, Echuca (lessor), Swan Hill, Shepparton, Warrnambools etc...they usually end up in the regional cities becausethere is a preference for best of both worlds, as opposed to "pure" metro living....they prefer what regional cities offer in lifestyle.

But, yes, we have rural population decline, as in farming communities. It is a shift sideways however. The farm houses are being vacated, yet there is an ongoing shortage of housing within regional cities.

The dynamics are interesting TC...I wonder where your major bleeds are then??? population wise expected? Or is it sneaky little weeper bleeds maybe?

 

[topcropper]

But, yes, we have rural population decline, as in farming communities. It is a shift sideways however. The farm houses are being vacated, yet there is an ongoing shortage of housing within regional cities.

The dynamics are interesting TC...I wonder where your major bleeds are then??? population wise expected? Or is it sneaky little weeper bleeds maybe?

There is no bleed OO. There was until a few years ago, but that's stopped. As I said, our little primary school is growing again for the first time since anyone can remember. Surrounding the little towns are now hobby farms and acreage with flash new houses and sheds. The farm houses are filling up again.

Corporatising farms won't lead to less workers, it means more. The 20,000 hectare farm owned by a Swiss world banker employs more workers per hectare than my farm, as workers on a wage aren't as productive as owner/occupiers. This is because the worst that can happen to a worker on a wage is they lose their job. The worst that can happen to me and dad is we lose our home and business and every single asset we ever owned, so we have more incentive to be productive.

The farmers aren't ageing OO. The government thinks they are, but that's because they are owned by dad and mum who are now living longer, but the sons and daughters aren't counted. Every farm around me has a sibling ready to take over ownership when 70 year old dad carks and they've probably been running the show anyway for a long time.

A horse stud has just started up. Moved over the range from the hunter. So thats a farm that once employed one, that now employs 4 or 5. This will continue. Wheat and sorghum paddocks are now growing lucerne for hay, much more labour intensive.

We haven't even been much effected by drought here, or nothing out of the norm. We have received average rainfall for the decade here at about 670 mills. We get more rainfall here than London or Christchurch for flip sake so we are not even marginal. Plentyfull water supply. Often a towns well might go dry, but it just means a decent better bore has to be put down instead. Everyone catches rain water anyway.



This is simply the result of a report put out by a lazy public servant in Sydney or Canberra who knows nothing about what goes on in the bush, but which could have major implications for a growth area like mine. He's looked at our population decline for the last 50 years and has simply extended the line on.


See ya's.

 

[our obsession]

ah, gotchya, we are apples and oranges. drought and escalating inputs have probably taken the edge off some here too, that and grain prices...an influx of "stuff" going on too long, will ..and is seeing big reshuffles. (here).

although, within the big rural drain, there are enigma's, there was a really interesting study done on small towns, one of them was leapfrogging and jumping and outperforming rural communities, i need to find it...it was fascinating. the module was unique.

hmm, have u checked the ABS...maybe there is something happening there, it would be interesting to see, and i would be contacting whoever did the study, my curiousity would get the better of me-or at least the local council development group, have a chat...burning questions, unanswered answers ?

 

[our obsession]

Update:

Various offerings/contributions to regional centres via State budget, too many to list, but includes the new Bendigo hospital above, and Geelong, Ballarat/Bendigo getting duplication of 50k's of track-resulting in regional train services off congested metro lines..(anyone can google to clarify).

*Next month the government is rolling out hundreds of millions of dollars more for country Victoria in a "Blueprint for Regional Growth".

 

[our obsession]

TC:

as workers on a wage aren't as productive as owner/occupiers.

Yes, then we are definitely apples and oranges.

The trend here is teams of farmworkers come in, sow/spray/harvest-(not necessarily in that order...but you get the gist), do the work, and go.

General consensus here is, although there will always be a (likely) family involvement, the reality is large parcels of "alternative farm soil land" being bought up, (to balance the southern farm soil type), portfolios, and operated similar to a general laboring as mining, teams come in, do they work, then go..maybe one solo worker housed here, for day to day maintenance.

Seems to be working quite well.

Albeit also contributing to the slow bleed of the very small towns/communities.

If no accommodation on the sites of the farmland, ie, no housing, they are shipping in the portable housing from Melbourne's ex Commonwealth Games...it's all very interesting times.

We wont be here much longer ourselves.

 

[topcropper]

We wont be here much longer ourselves.

Where are you moving to?


Who are buying the farms? Is it farmers from higher rainfall southern areas? Is it corporations, and they are getting in contractors? All a bit sad.

I suppose this is what happens when you get a string of bad seasons like you blokes got in 07 and 08?


In my area the family farm still owns 95% of farms. I can't see that changing


See ya's.

 

[our obsession]

Where are you moving to?

Good question

So much to choose from, Mr OO is inclined to roam the earth for a while, which sounds like fun to me, although I wouldn't mind setting up a base first, our own place, as we've never owned our very own residence. Then ping off from there, but as he says, what's the point, what if we find somewhere else we would like to live for a while, and then I say, well it will be a rented out PPOR for the time we roam, why not have that $$$ coming in..


Who are buying the farms? Is it farmers from higher rainfall southern areas? Is it corporations, and they are getting in contractors? All a bit sad.

Yes and yes. And no, not really that sad...more just shifting sands...change...the southerners are snapping it up as quick as it is put on the market...(and even private offers). Sand is a good balance for them, but they want to learn about no till/direct drill umm quickly...


I suppose this is what happens when you get a string of bad seasons like you blokes got in 07 and 08?

*Heh* try 12 years...below average rainfall ..believe it or not is still not a $$$ killer, it just needs to be in the right place. There has been averageto good harvests within all that drought. The farming community is seriously learning stuff here..

Sand ...even in drought + poor grain prices is still a very good medium to make money out of-provided you have somekind of lateral thinking mindset..the ones to leave farming were ones who wouldn't? or couldn't? respond to change and challenges..


In my area the family farm still owns 95% of farms. I can't see that changing

No, I guess it's unlikely, we flew over the Liverpool Plains...it is one hell of an area, it blows my mind the diversity of country within Oz, and then again, how people optimise it's potential...where we are, on one side is the farming communities affected, (by all the above), and hit hard in wash up analysis of $$/ production for last season, and on the other side, the Wimmera has suffered same probs, but rated in top producers "again"...travelling b/w them both, distance by vehicle is 1 hour and 20 minutes. Then aboutish same distance from Wimmera, heading south is God's own country, Pursefattener, Lord Pursefattener to us.. But, again, he faces his own challenges, I shouldn't be so cheeky..all this within Vic..Little old Victoria.


See ya's.

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