If Keen's prediction was indeed to encompass 15 years, that gives him perhaps two full property cycles, pretty open I would say.
Left wing political group orchestrating home buyers strike...
- Thread starter GoingDHfast
- Start date
We've had this discussion on SS before, I see rehashing it as pointless. On one occasion Keen said a few years, on every other occasion he expressed a longer time frame. You keep going back to the one article with an off the cuff remark (that was not made at the same time as the bet).
I was talking about the bet. The terms of the bet (as they were recorded) were for 15 years. So I am right.
So you're saying that when Keen was appearing weekly on prime time television during 2008 talking excitedly about a severe recession, ZIRP, double digit unemployment, and massive property crash... he was actually just warning us about something he thought wasn't going to happen for another 15 years? Sure...
Of course, when it came time to put his money where his mouth is, so to speak, and make an official bet, he severely watered down his original doomsday predictions.
And still managed to get it completely wrong!
How much does he need prices to crash by now to even be half right?
He was wrong... but some people just find that fact very hard to accept...
Over 15 years, not in 15 years.
Sure he got some things wrong (and by wrong I mean it's likely only going to be timing and severity he got wrong, the debt bubble is real and we will see debt deflation). You sure like to try and put arguments in the mouth of someone else
Propertunity continues to misrepresent Keen's view and I was just pointing this out. Even now he's linked two more articles, neither of which suggest Keen said properties would drop 20% in 12 months (keep digging
)... perhaps the fault is not all his own as there are plenty of MSM articles that are less than clear on what the bet entailed.I went to some seminar the other day on colonisation of other people's web sites and what to do to get your name mentioned a lot.............
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Good luck pushing your property death war wagon hobo
His whole argument was based on timing and severity! Those were his core arguments - he gave a timeframe (a 'few years') and a severity (40% crash, double digit unemployment, ZIRP, severe recession).
Debt levels, like many things, move up and down through economic cycles. Sometimes debt levels fall, sometimes they rise. Predicting that a debt 'bubble' will deflate 'sometime' is as useful as predicting the weather will get colder sometime.
Imagine I appeared on prime time media for a year predicting that the Earth would be completely destroyed by 2010 due to a meteor collision. Then when it doesn't happen, I claim that I was still right because the Earth will definitely suffer some meteor damage sometime in the future, but I just got my timing and severity a little bit out.
It's unfortunate you see it that way Ridin-High.
LMAO. Gold! It bemuses me that this guy keeps getting mentioned. He's just an academic who knows how to create a headline. Given his prescience in his chosen field I think the UNSW would do well to offer him a chair in the media studies department instead.
This is what gets me re the Keen criticism on the forum. How does anyone know what his investing experience is or what his net worth/assets are?
Fair criticism and disagreeing with his comments is fine but there is too much unthinking , dumb baseless stuff about him on here.
Can anyone support the assertions that he's broke, has no investing experience whatsoever etc?
*And Rolf, what is colonising others websites? is that what service providers do on this one with the marketing signature links and covert pitching for gigs?
Fair criticism and disagreeing with his comments is fine but there is too much unthinking , dumb baseless stuff about him on here.
Can anyone support the assertions that he's broke, has no investing experience whatsoever etc?
*And Rolf, what is colonising others websites? is that what service providers do on this one with the marketing signature links and covert pitching for gigs?
That's what I implied. It ISN"T the only city in the country but from my reading here it is the ONLY one that may have had the gains mentioned. For the rest of us it has been lean pickings.
RPData says my suburb has had a 2% (cumulative) gain in four years.
Since late 2007, my properties in Sydney have increased between 17%- 31%. 17% over 4 years is not exceptional but still a far cry from a Keen-like drop.
Can't say I know too much about Nth Qld, in my opinion the fundamentals have never been there to warrant investment in the area...Great place for a holiday though.
I'd sugest you have done well to be a gain, many parts of the country are seriously negative
As I have said before, if Keen was based in say Mandurah he would be revered as the prophet. Mandurah is stil the fastest grwoing town in the country incidentally