What have been the falls in Mandurah like?
It just goes to show that population increase doesnt automatically equal cap gains.
It just goes to show that population increase doesnt automatically equal cap gains.
Left wing political group orchestrating home buyers strike...
- Thread starter GoingDHfast
- Start date
Kochie this morning on the strike:
http://au.tv.yahoo.com/sunrise/video/-/watch/24724837/home-buyers-strike/
He actually agrees that buying in now is a bad idea, but would prefer a slow deflation of prices. He suggests that falling house prices could cause 10% unemployment. I don't disagree.
Many here have suggested we need a catalyst to bring down house prices, but reality is that house prices falling could be the catalyst for the coming recession/depression.
http://au.tv.yahoo.com/sunrise/video/-/watch/24724837/home-buyers-strike/
He actually agrees that buying in now is a bad idea, but would prefer a slow deflation of prices. He suggests that falling house prices could cause 10% unemployment. I don't disagree.
Many here have suggested we need a catalyst to bring down house prices, but reality is that house prices falling could be the catalyst for the coming recession/depression.
Equally (out of curiosity) have rents improved in the area?
So you could say that
"IF" this FHB boycott got off the ground.it could lead to a property crash.
this will lead to a crash of our economy which is already fragile.
This will then lead into higher unemployment as all thes FHB's loose their jobs.
Many areas are under building as it is. This will not help and push rents up.
How will this help anyone apart from the few that would retain their high paying jobs or have the funds to pay cash for a property.
Actually the above scenario will most likely lead to a drop in interest rates. This will help the current property owners hold on and will turn many neg geared investors into pos geared ones.So many evil investors would be thankful.
I myself would find a 1.0% drop sending my entire portfolio into positive territory. bring it on.
But many FHB's will find them selves in the position of cheaper homes but no job anyway. Or at the absolute best. The fear of a job loss holding them back from purchasing like the GFC did to many.
To me a slow correction coupled with a wage increase over a period of a few years would be the ideal fix.
Hang on a minute. Thats whats happening now!!!!!
So why push things further. its happening already.
Why help a fragile Australian property market absail down from its current highs by cutting the rope.
Few people would win.
"IF" this FHB boycott got off the ground.it could lead to a property crash.
this will lead to a crash of our economy which is already fragile.
This will then lead into higher unemployment as all thes FHB's loose their jobs.
Many areas are under building as it is. This will not help and push rents up.
How will this help anyone apart from the few that would retain their high paying jobs or have the funds to pay cash for a property.
Actually the above scenario will most likely lead to a drop in interest rates. This will help the current property owners hold on and will turn many neg geared investors into pos geared ones.So many evil investors would be thankful.
I myself would find a 1.0% drop sending my entire portfolio into positive territory. bring it on.
But many FHB's will find them selves in the position of cheaper homes but no job anyway. Or at the absolute best. The fear of a job loss holding them back from purchasing like the GFC did to many.
To me a slow correction coupled with a wage increase over a period of a few years would be the ideal fix.
Hang on a minute. Thats whats happening now!!!!!
So why push things further. its happening already.
Why help a fragile Australian property market absail down from its current highs by cutting the rope.
Few people would win.
I have been a member here since '04 and the "pro's" here were telling me to invest in Syd then. Had I done so I would be ahead, but not far ahead after 7 years. "Not far ahead after 7 years" is a loss.
I have never quoted Keen. My line is that you will be losing money as long as prices stay flat. I don't think I'm smart but I'm making REAL profits elsewhere.
I agree it's already playing out.
Question is, do you fight fire with fire?
I see no one kicking up a stink on here about the desperate actions of the RE industry:
Fudging auction stats:
http://www.news.com.au/money/auction-rates-fudged-by-failed-campaigns/story-e6frfmci-1226016477643
Real Estate agent first home buyers talking up property without disclosing their positions (deceptive behaviour):
http://tasmanianrealestatetrouble.blogspot.com/2011/02/yes-we-are-open.html
http://tasmanianrealestatetrouble.blogspot.com/2011/02/disclosure.html
This recently on top of some of their usual tricks such as bait advertising and so forth. Where's the anger and uprising against this sort of trickery on the forum?
Rather users here seem to have a problem with first home buyers making the choice not to buy?
Actually i thought there where many sites dedicated to making people aware of the dodgy players in the RE industry.
As I'm sure you know, that issue was investigated in quite a bit of detail on another forum, and the conclusion was that any 'fudging' only made a difference of a few percent to the reported clearance rate, and would be reasonably consistent with 'fudging' levels that have existed for the past couple of decades anyway. So clearance rates are no more or less reliable now than they have always been.
To summarise that discussion, what you call 'fudging' is just basic human nature. Some agents don't report their results on Saturday in time for the initial clearance rates to be released on Saturday evening. Those results then trickle in during the following week, and the initial clearance rates are then revised and re-released the following weekend. On 25% of occasions, the clearance rate is actually revised up rather than down. Overall, the average revision during 2010 was -2.5%.
Last edited:
Are you talking about the forum where half the users are sockpuppets and trolls? Can't say I've been following much of anything on there.
Whoever owns that forum has been spamming links here there and everywhere. On Somersoft. On other property forums. Even on international forums. In online news articles. It's a somewhat dubious operation and I wouldn't signup there with a 10 foot pole.
No, I was referring to AustralianPropertyForum.com. I don't know which one you're referring to, but let's stick to the topic of auction clearance rates?
What you call 'fudging' is just basic human nature.
Some agents don't report their results on Saturday in time for the initial clearance rates to be released on Saturday evening.
Those results then trickle in during the following week, and the initial clearance rates are then revised and re-released the following weekend.
On 25% of occasions, the clearance rate is actually revised up rather than down.
Overall, the average revision during 2010 was -2.5%.
Yep that's the one (the one full of sock puppets and trolls).
I will have to go back to REIV when I get a chance. I had 9 months of their data from last year showing initial figure and final figures (provided by them) and none where revised higher. There was an increase in the number revised lower in the latter half of 2010...
Can't say I've noticed any 'sock puppets' or 'trolls' there, but I'm sure you're probably just better at identifying them than me.
Why would you go back to REIV data - the article you linked to was discussing APM data. Are you no longer sure about the credibility of the article you linked to?
The analysis on the other forum showed that the average clearance rate revision in 2010 was only -2.5%, and the analysis was conducted by many people including Black Dragon who I'm sure you recognise in 'real life' is a very well respected property analyst (and often quite bearish too).
Anyway, I look forward to seeing your own analysis of the data for comparison.
Cheers,
Shadow.
Thommo,
And right you have been about Sydneys RE performance. I'm still committed to my Sydney build and its panning out quite nicely contrary to a lot of prevailing arguments against it at the same sort of time. But, as you know, I've also dabbled elsewhere in the same hard commodities but am thinking about taking profits soon given the US resurgence. But bubbles, like the one in AU, tend always to surprise to the upside before they burst. Not to derail this thread or anything...
Cheers,
Michael
Fascinating!
I stopped posting on a couple of these forums, largely as I have been busy with business, but also because my account was hacked.
I follow the link to this site, and what do I find, but someone posting with my real name, giving details of my home address, and using a picture lifted from a business site of mine (copyright).
I'd say you were dead right about the site being dodgy, any idea who does own it??
The last time someone used a photo from a business of mine (showing a job we had completed), my lawyers were quick smart to extract renumeration and an apology.
I guess I would have to subpoena the owner in this case for details of the culprit.
if it's a dotcom site good luck, if it's a dotcomdotau then fire away!
The administrator there seems reasonable enough - just send him a PM and I'm sure he can sort it out for you. I've been a member for a while and haven't noticed any problems, but I guess there's nothing to prevent someone joining up using a false name... it could happen on any forum. Anyway, this is all getting away from the topic of clearance rates raised by Hobo-jo...
What HJ calls 'fudging' is just basic human nature. Some agents don't report their results on Saturday in time for the initial clearance rates to be released on Saturday evening. Those results then trickle in during the following week, and the initial clearance rates are then revised and re-released the following weekend.
On 25% of occasions, the clearance rate is actually revised up rather than down. Overall, the average revision during 2010 was -2.5%.
So if the agents are trying to 'fudge' the figures, they aren't doing a very good job of it!
This does not surprise me. I have heard other accounts where users have been posting on that site (bearish in nature) and then been locked out of their own account to have someone else continue to post under the same user name but posting bullish comments instead.
Whoever is running the site is also posting as well known bears all over the web linking back to that forum, when it is clear to anyone who has been following the saga that it's not the well known bears posting. They are also setting up 'blogs' on the site under well known bear sites, deceptively trying to draw traffic to the site by linking as if you were going to the other forum, but it goes to APF.
I don't know who is behind it, but I have my suspicions it's a well known property bull who was banned from one of the bear sites a few years back (one that is no longer operational). PM me if you want more details, though I doubt any information I have would lead you to a real person. It's unfortunate you have been targeted by this disturbed individual/group.
You are clearly suggesting that APF is a bull forum. You are saying that bearish posters have been "locked out" - banned in other words and that it is all run by a bull.
That isn't the impression I get from the site. I'd say that the majority of the regular posters there are bears - posters like catnap, raveswei, pauk, davel, AK4, catweasel, bubble trouble, Jordan, Mahamet, hoofarted and many more. There are a few strong bulls there but I've seen no evidence that the bears have been suppressed in any way. I'd be interested in hearing more regarding bears being banned from there. If its true then it should be exposed. My impression is that moderation there is very light and bull and bear views are all welcomed.
That's my impression too - I'd say it's probably 60% bears and 40% bulls.
Rastus2, Earthsta, Hoofarted, Pauk, Maveri, McGusto etc are fairly well known bears.
Anyway, this as all getting a bit off topic...