Logic Police Thread - the really DIFFICULT questions ...
- Thread starter yieldmatters
- Start date
yieldmatters said:
Boohoo, I'm being ignored! - you're even less convincing now.
yieldmatters said:
Wow, now THAT is a huge turnaround!
yieldmatters said:
And this too! - from 'crashes' to 'rate of growth slowing'!
yieldmatters said:
Ummm...yes!
Just calling it as I see it mate. Not being critical, I think you're taking in the 'logic' of what's being said here and keeping a somewhat open mind and forming a more balanced and less distorted view of this property investing game.
yieldmatters said:
You sold in 2005 in fear of an impending global 40% or so crash, and yet you were still making offers here too in 2005 and 2006???
yieldmatters said:
Look, you've been pretty upfront here, so just take it as a lesson and move on...
You were 85% sure of your decision to sell in 2005, and that dropped to 50% in recent weeks...I wonder where you're at now?
Are we all done yet?
Last edited:
Boohoo, I'm being ignored! - you're even less convincing now.
Wow, now THAT is a huge turnaround!
And this too! - from 'crashes' to 'rate of growth slowing'!
Ummm...yes!
Just calling it as I see it mate. Not being critical, I think you're taking in the 'logic' of what's being said here and keeping a somewhat open mind and forming a more balanced and less distorted view of this property investing game.
You sold in 2005 in fear of an impending global 40% or so crash, and yet you were still making offers here too in 2005 and 2006???
Look, you've been pretty upfront here, so just take it as a lesson and move on...
You were 85% sure of your decision to sell in 2005, and that dropped to 50% in recent weeks...I wonder where you're at now?
Are we all done yet?
No JIT;
I'm gunna work on him until he buys something.
He'll thank us in a few years.
You're very kind!
He's been pretty lucky to have been given so much attention thus far.
He did say though he is already 'financially comfortable' or something like that (despite not having many assets)...so whether this means he's got an inheritance waiting or high income job who knows.
Thanks for being so kind - you are still condescending though.
No inheritance - just a high income job. Financially comfortable only if I keep turning up to work!
I will buy something when the time is right. That was around April 06 I put in the aggressive offer. Just did it for a test. It was slow then - the seller ended up taking it off the market so I was 'close' - nobody outbid me. Since then it took off again so the seller probably relisted and did well. When the macro picture is looking good (large level of defaults) I plan to repeat the exercise (ridiculous offer) about 25 times as I figure I will get lucky on one of them.
I don't know. How about this? It could put pressure on inflation, trigger a few interest rate rises by the RBA, which will destroy the marginal home buyer's ability to borrow, and then weaken prices?
Looks like there were 2 people conducting a test back then; him and you.
"I will buy something when the time is right"
Shouldn't this be in the thread about crazy reasons not to invest?
I don't know. How about this? It could put pressure on inflation, trigger a few interest rate rises by the RBA, which will destroy the marginal home buyer's ability to borrow, and then weaken prices?
It probably will, but then no-one will be buying; least of all investors, and the rents will go up again because all those would-be home buyers will have to stay in the rental market, along with a few more thousand newly completed VCE students needing to rent when they move out of home to start their lives. Yippeee!
AND it will be a good time to buy for anyone cashed up. Double Yippeee!
I didn't answer your question on the other thread as it was dying a slow death and I get in trouble for crapping on too much in the "regular" forums anyway.
The answer is I could buy now if I wanted to - I just choose not to. But I couldn't have bought 7, 8, or 9 years ago like the others though - I wasn't in the same position.
I'll let you in on a secret here Yield; I'm sure most weren't in that good a position either; they just did it anyway.
Our first IP was just before our son was born, it was neg geared, wife on maternity leave etc; it was not fun, but we kept on chewing and got through.
Every time I have bought it has been a massive panic attack; can I afford this? What the hell am I doing? What about all this debt, will the property go up? etc.
Actually; not every time, but certainly the first coupla times. Now it is easy and I have confidence in the process because the equity keeps growing and the LVR keeps dropping. It's a good hedge. You also get used to the increasing debt.
The only time I actually could afford it easily was when my wife and I first got married. We were both earning good incomes and bought our 1st PPoR together; well within our means and I think that was the critical factor. I had one previously on my own; a cheapy in the outer burbs, and sold it to put the money towards the new one. Made a small profit on it.
This is your position (good income) now and I reckon you should be making the most of your opportunity; just don't over-commit of course.
Oh boy
! You picked a slow point in the market and bid so low (presumably thinking the entire property market was about to go into freefall at the time) that the vendor lost interest, after which the prices started to go up again, giving the vendor a better result, and making it even more expensive for you to purchase that property again.
I don't think you were 'close' AT ALL.
If you can't succeed using this approach when the 'macro' picture is close to the worst it's been in 100 years...how do you expect to fare doing this (low-balling) when the 'macro' picture is good???!!!
This is what Alex humourously described happening to 'D&Gers' when they try and time the market!!!
Sorry to embarrass you, but you just keep putting your foot in it...
To be fair to YM he can't win against you - you are contradicting yourself! On one hand agreeing that prices will weaken because of interest rates rises, and then saying he should be buying now....
So, YM sold too early in Brissy beacause he thought the market was overvalued. This was around the same time as I went ahead with a purchase in Brissy where the bank val came in 10% below my purchase price. In retrospect, the bank val was probably right at the time, so I overpaid back then (at what YM perceived to be irrational prices). Now it's appreciated 25% above what I paid (according to another one being sold in the same complex), which is below most other properties in Brissy (because I overpaid).
The one I bought after THAT, incidentally, was the Perth place in 04.
What YM Is saying is that even though he sold 4 years and at least 30% too early, he's now going to wait until the market tanks and somehow time it exquisitely, and buy at the trough. To do that, you have to make that brilliantly balanced lowball offer that allows you the best purchase price which a seller will accept. As YM himself described, making lowball offers are easy: the question is whether the seller will accept or not.
He's obviously a lot better at buying than I am, then. I certainly don't think I'll be able to balance my lowball offers so well. Instead, I'll just do what I've always done. Buy gradually. Pay market prices and let time and the cycle do its work.
Alex
The one I bought after THAT, incidentally, was the Perth place in 04.
What YM Is saying is that even though he sold 4 years and at least 30% too early, he's now going to wait until the market tanks and somehow time it exquisitely, and buy at the trough. To do that, you have to make that brilliantly balanced lowball offer that allows you the best purchase price which a seller will accept. As YM himself described, making lowball offers are easy: the question is whether the seller will accept or not.
He's obviously a lot better at buying than I am, then. I certainly don't think I'll be able to balance my lowball offers so well. Instead, I'll just do what I've always done. Buy gradually. Pay market prices and let time and the cycle do its work.
Alex
You don't embarrass me at all. You embarrass yourself more often.
With regards to property prices increasing the macro picture now is not the worst it's been in 100 years. In fact, since 2000 the macro picture has been fantastic for property prices. There has been unlimited debt thrown at anybody that is breathing to go bid up property prices.
HOWEVER, the sustainability of this macro picture for long term price growth into the future is very, very poor. This debt binge has a limit. That is my point. When it hits the macro picture will be 'bad' for property prices increasing but 'good' for me who will buy. Others around here who are die hard property supporters have actually said the same thing - they are looking froward to the buying opportunities the debt squeeze will bring.
There are a few timing lords on this forum, and YM is most certainly NOT one of them!
I didn't say that, I said 'close to being etc...'!
Anyway, when we reach this time, you'll probably end up putting in such an absurdly low offer that it will be ignored and then prices will start to move up again etc. etc...!
And, you have already proven this point, so thanks for making my point more compelling again.
This is too easy
...But keep posting, this is fun.
If you believe in the "property prices go up in real terms over the long term forever" story then this behaviour is absolutely logical. I find most of what Alex says to be very logical (must be the accounting blood!).
If you don't believe it - then its a much harder stance to take. And the reason I don't believe it is not because of some central banking money is valueless conspiracy that you mention from time to time - it is simply the caps on debt growth. It's much simpler. I'm actually not that radical.
Does this matter at the micro level? I think it does. Others think it doesn't. We don't know the answer to that yet.
So you don't believe it, and yet you're still going to make low ball offers to try and buy property at some magic point in the future???
This makes no sense at all.
yieldmatters said:
NO, a few of use here are saying that SOME micro-markets will be affected, but not ALL micro-markets and not ALL to the same extent!
Makes perfect sense to me.
Just select the right micro-markets to buy into.
Similar threads
