Yeah - time will tell. It is an interesting point in history.
Logic Police Thread - the really DIFFICULT questions ...
- Thread starter yieldmatters
- Start date
Yeah - time will tell. It is an interesting point in history.
Hi there Marc,
It won't stop me investing, or indeed selling up, but I think on a macro level, there is a lot of logic to what ym is saying. If nothing else, it is a good exercise, I believe, in looking at some pretty big scenarios that have developed since the evolution, and huge growth internationally in easy consumer credit.
It won't stop me investing, or indeed selling up, but I think on a macro level, there is a lot of logic to what ym is saying. If nothing else, it is a good exercise, I believe, in looking at some pretty big scenarios that have developed since the evolution, and huge growth internationally in easy consumer credit.
I'm not attacking Alex's contributions or intelligence. I'm just simply saying if I get on Alex's nerves then he doesn't need to come here. I specifically started this thread to get out of their hair so its strange to be followed in here with an announcement that I've been ignored. anyway - I think I'll do the same - then we can both be blissfully ignorant of eachother.
As I said earlier - all are welcome to this discussion - its a great discussion but if your not interested, then that's fine - visit another thread.
i, for one, think it is an interesting question that ym bought up - however - as there is nothing we can do about it, and it may never happen in our lifetime, i will continue to play by the rules and economics of the "now" and not speculate about the "what ifs" and "maybes".
i think there is not much discussion on the original question because the answer is "nobody knows the answer" and therefore any discussion would be just differing opinions on economics - that eventually none of them will be the right answer anyhow, and the discussion (and scaremongering) was all pointless.
meanwhile i'll make money while the sun shines so that when/if a crash does come i'm in a better position to weather the storm than those who hide their cash under the mattress.
still looking for my next development purchase - found two potentials, but am looking for something better.
i think there is not much discussion on the original question because the answer is "nobody knows the answer" and therefore any discussion would be just differing opinions on economics - that eventually none of them will be the right answer anyhow, and the discussion (and scaremongering) was all pointless.
meanwhile i'll make money while the sun shines so that when/if a crash does come i'm in a better position to weather the storm than those who hide their cash under the mattress.
still looking for my next development purchase - found two potentials, but am looking for something better.
&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
Dear Yieldmatters,
1. Perhaps, you may need to understand the "Nothingness" in this Cyclical concept, called TAOISM;- " Yin" and "Yang" forces in the Chinese Philosophy.
2. When is a "day" a "day" and a "night" a "night"?... though we are always observing that "Day follows Night" and "Night follows Day" etc and this endless "Day-Night-Day" cycle continues forever more!
3. So when we begin to speak about "sustainability", our basic premise in our own internal thinking is, "it is not sustainable", by implications, isn't it not?
4. So we can actually be looking for something that we subsconsciously believe in and would like to see;- but unfortunately, that is not happening in the real world, at this point in time.
5. However, if we were to try to remove the "coloured" lenses and come with a truly open mind, and ask ourselves this alternative question instead, " what is it that everbody in this forum seems to be "seeing" that I am "not seeing" now", perhaps we may start to see the (real) "answer" soon.
6. While we are still trying to spend time pondering over and to try to fully understand the nature of this "Day-Night"/"Yin-Yang" Cycle phenomenon, some of the forumites, like Lizzie etc, are already cleverly cashing in and "making hay while the sun shines".
7. For your kind update and further comments/discussion, please.
8. Thank you.
regards,
Kenneth KOH
Last edited:
**********************
Dear Yieldmatters,
1. So what is the magic " debt limit" figure that you have in your mind now, that will cause the global economy to collapse?
2. Someone once say this, " the only "limit" we have, is the one we have already set in our own mind". Do you agree?
3. For your kind update and further comments/discussion, please.
4. Thank you.
regards,
Kenneth KOH
&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
Dear AlexLee,
... and the difference lies in the degree of pains which each one of us will separately bear eventually because of the different level of leverages which we are presently and applying them into our own life now.
Cheers,
Kenneth KOH
it was only yesterday i was listening to a very interesting (and rather informative) conversation by jack cainfield (chicken soup for the soul guy) about how most people "unconciously and unintentionally create their own reality" - and that until we take responsibility for, and acknowledge that our reality is of our making, nothing will change in our lives for the better.
was a very thought provoking conversation.
Hi Lizzie,
Threads such as this one prompted me to think about each individuals reality. You've created your own (v. successful) reality based around IP, I've created my own reality based around IP & shares. There are a few newcomers who have a completely different (& apparantly less successful) reality.
I posted about it recently here.
Cheers Keith
Hi, YM
1. You are arguing in a wrong place --- most of us here have some PI I believe. Importantly most of us may have benefited from the boom. Therefore you are not going to change anyone's mind.
2. You brought up arts etc as investment --- I believe few people would be interested to discuss.
3. You might have a difficult time to yourself --- why have I missed the boat for the PI. If you can truely tell us your own thoughts over the last few years. We could understand you better.
4. You missed a critical thing of the property investing: Gearing, gearing, gearing. If you spend $30k to buy BHP, after 1 year it doubles, you get $60K. If you use $30k as deposit to invest in property saying $300k. after one year, it increases 20%, you get $60k. You may not have use that $30 (your own). (I am not saying it always goes up by 20%. Just example)
5. Someone says REALITY check --- that is important.
6. I wish you well and kindly ask the form how can you start to maximise the current market.
7. my kind regards.
1. You are arguing in a wrong place --- most of us here have some PI I believe. Importantly most of us may have benefited from the boom. Therefore you are not going to change anyone's mind.
2. You brought up arts etc as investment --- I believe few people would be interested to discuss.
3. You might have a difficult time to yourself --- why have I missed the boat for the PI. If you can truely tell us your own thoughts over the last few years. We could understand you better.
4. You missed a critical thing of the property investing: Gearing, gearing, gearing. If you spend $30k to buy BHP, after 1 year it doubles, you get $60K. If you use $30k as deposit to invest in property saying $300k. after one year, it increases 20%, you get $60k. You may not have use that $30 (your own). (I am not saying it always goes up by 20%. Just example)
5. Someone says REALITY check --- that is important.
6. I wish you well and kindly ask the form how can you start to maximise the current market.
7. my kind regards.
Hi - great handle by the way!
I began in the regular section of the forum. I have had a go at property before and the details of the adventure was well documented in another section of the forum. I made some money but could have made even more if I stayed in the market longer. I was in from 2002 to 2005 in Brisbane.
I am interested in the macroeconomics of property. There are some big macroeconomic riddles that nobody seems to be able to solve.
Regarding being in the wrong place. I think I was in the wrong place - in the regular part of the forum I was pissing people off. But now that I have retired to this little corner (Property Market Economics) I feel more at home.
I understand leverage very well - I look at capital investments for a living.
About maximising the return from the current market my die hard honest opinion is to short it - sell and buy back in. This would be an enormous gamble, has costs, and isn't supported by history. But that's just my view - others here have other views ofcourse!
Hope you visit this thread occasionally. These macroeconomic questions are very interesting to me and a few others but I think we are in the minority.
Cheers!
Hi Keith - Your chips are still on the table (I assume) so I think its too early to claim with any degree of certainty who has been 'successful' and who hasn't been successful.
But anyway - I don't think success at an individual level has much to do with my questions anyway. I am trying to put some logic around the macroeconomic fundamentals of property (i.e. all the individuals added up)and it is a very difficult thing to do. Many things don't make sense at the aggregate level.
The answer from many people is "don't worry about it!" - "do a phd" - "get back to your books" ... but I'm not worried - I'm just interested. Maybe some others are interested too so I started this thread. Hope you call in occasionally - I reckon you could add something.
I don't know exactly but mathematically there is a limit. It isn't the size of the debt necessarilly - it is the debt servicing that has a limit. When repayments come to 100% of your income then obviously that is a limit. Right now I believe it is around 18% ... somebody might be able to correct me on that. Our deputy reserve bank governor has confidence that the run up in debt has some life left in it for a while yet - I am not so confident.
No - in this case it is a real limit. If you can't pay back a loan then you have hit a limit - nobody will lend you anymore money.
Hi, YM
I think I could understand you a little better - you are clever, well educated or trained, focusing on sound analysis before you make your decision.
I found that was the trouble of ourselves. We are trying to defend the trend. I donot think I would not be the person like Gates, Warren etc who can change the trend.
In 2001, one guy living not far to my house advised me to invest in properties --- you got the idea from seminars. I did not believe him and argued with him on the mac/micro things. He works in a post office and with low wage and his wife was a part time worker. So he started investing in the property and bought probably 7-9 cheap properties. Two weeks ago, he said he paid off his own debt (his house) and has 5 rentals. He just bought another 4 cheaps in Brisbane and Adelaide. ----- a great story. He is very ordinary and no high education... but he is looking for retirement in 5 years time.
I believe if you have 5-10 year timeframe and you should not lose. It may not double the price but will bring you a good return. But you need patience.
Myself, I do not have the patience and therefore I buy and sell and I like a quick return. All my loans are variable because I am prepared to sell if the price is right.
Mate, I do believe some hints on this forum will bring you good return.
I think I could understand you a little better - you are clever, well educated or trained, focusing on sound analysis before you make your decision.
I found that was the trouble of ourselves. We are trying to defend the trend. I donot think I would not be the person like Gates, Warren etc who can change the trend.
In 2001, one guy living not far to my house advised me to invest in properties --- you got the idea from seminars. I did not believe him and argued with him on the mac/micro things. He works in a post office and with low wage and his wife was a part time worker. So he started investing in the property and bought probably 7-9 cheap properties. Two weeks ago, he said he paid off his own debt (his house) and has 5 rentals. He just bought another 4 cheaps in Brisbane and Adelaide. ----- a great story. He is very ordinary and no high education... but he is looking for retirement in 5 years time.
I believe if you have 5-10 year timeframe and you should not lose. It may not double the price but will bring you a good return. But you need patience.
Myself, I do not have the patience and therefore I buy and sell and I like a quick return. All my loans are variable because I am prepared to sell if the price is right.
Mate, I do believe some hints on this forum will bring you good return.
yieldmatters said:
I see where you're coming from YM, but I think most people on this forum wouldn't be willing to take that sort gamble in their quest for personal or individual wealth, including me. And this is where we seem to differ. You may be right at some point in the future, but when is anyone's guess. You seem to be more driven by your intellectual curiosity on this subject rather than the simple act of making money or creating wealth today, which is the focus of most of us here. I don't think either is right or wrong. Each to their own. You've obviously acted based on your own convictions on this matter which I suppose deserves some credit, but it could cost you dearly in terms of your own personal/individual wealth.
Mark B I believe has some background in economics and is a property investor too, so I thought he may be able to comment here.
Good luck with it.
GSJ
Glad to see you calling in here from time to time! I've had a few PM chats with Mark B actually now that you mention his background.
I am more driven by my curiosity rather than making money because even if I am right I can't tell you WHEN - which makes making money out of it very difficult. It could cost me - you are right there - I might lose out on years of capital gains by sitting around and watching - BUT if that happens at least I will be a good case study for people to talk about on Somersoft!!!!!
"Remember that curious guy who blew it .... "G'day YM,
It is a difficult path you have chosen to tread. You are posting on a PI forum (no kidding, Les ) and are looking for someone to substantiate and/or debate your thoughts re "the economics" of such.
If we were debating the share market, someone would pop up and say "the Market is what it is, and it does what it does" (no explanation - it just is, and it does what it does - to me, the real estate market appears to be similar).
Here, though, you are attempting to rationalise it - to use numbers to disprove it's success. To my mind, the only valid numbers refer to "supply and demand" - period.
Your path has been trod before though - if you have any interest, do check out the interesting posts presented by one L_Bernham (quite some time in the past). This person seems (to me) to be almost over-whelmed by the fact that property would never grow because of such a low yield (and had sold out their one and only property - expecting the worst). Predictions by L_Bernham paralleled yours to some extent (drops of 35% within the next year was L_B's mainstay). This was back in late 2003 (if memory serves me correctly).
Like you, L_Bernham appeared to be well-read, intelligent, and educated - but they got it wrong. Why is this? Was he/she "over-analysing" everything? And are you doing the same today? (Read that last point again)
Did he/she ignore the simple "supply and demand" curve that can throw EVERYTHING ELSE out the window?
Back then, it seemed to me that L_B ignored EVERYTHING except Yield - and (surprise, surprise) guess what YOU appear to be doing? Does capital growth not count for anything? Does leverage not count for anything? Does Location of property not count for anything? Does opportunity not count for anything?
Have a Search for some of those earlier posts from someone with a not dis-similar posting style, YM. Check out the responses, and check out the FACTS (4 years further down the track). Summarised - how much has L_B's bias cost them - quantify it (roughly - we can't be too accurate) THEN come back and discuss this again..... It would be interesting to see how you feel/think afterward...
Edited later:- By the time I typed this, you had replied, saying that you may lose by not investing now - and were happy with that. thus the above may not be much help. As you say, you are more interested in the "numbers" than making a profit - what can I say but good luck then...
Regards,
It is a difficult path you have chosen to tread. You are posting on a PI forum (no kidding, Les
) and are looking for someone to substantiate and/or debate your thoughts re "the economics" of such.If we were debating the share market, someone would pop up and say "the Market is what it is, and it does what it does" (no explanation - it just is, and it does what it does - to me, the real estate market appears to be similar).
Here, though, you are attempting to rationalise it - to use numbers to disprove it's success. To my mind, the only valid numbers refer to "supply and demand" - period.
Your path has been trod before though - if you have any interest, do check out the interesting posts presented by one L_Bernham (quite some time in the past). This person seems (to me) to be almost over-whelmed by the fact that property would never grow because of such a low yield (and had sold out their one and only property - expecting the worst). Predictions by L_Bernham paralleled yours to some extent (drops of 35% within the next year was L_B's mainstay). This was back in late 2003 (if memory serves me correctly).
Like you, L_Bernham appeared to be well-read, intelligent, and educated - but they got it wrong. Why is this? Was he/she "over-analysing" everything? And are you doing the same today? (Read that last point again)
Did he/she ignore the simple "supply and demand" curve that can throw EVERYTHING ELSE out the window?
Back then, it seemed to me that L_B ignored EVERYTHING except Yield - and (surprise, surprise) guess what YOU appear to be doing? Does capital growth not count for anything? Does leverage not count for anything? Does Location of property not count for anything? Does opportunity not count for anything?
Have a Search for some of those earlier posts from someone with a not dis-similar posting style, YM. Check out the responses, and check out the FACTS (4 years further down the track). Summarised - how much has L_B's bias cost them - quantify it (roughly - we can't be too accurate) THEN come back and discuss this again..... It would be interesting to see how you feel/think afterward...
Edited later:- By the time I typed this, you had replied, saying that you may lose by not investing now - and were happy with that. thus the above may not be much help. As you say, you are more interested in the "numbers" than making a profit - what can I say but good luck then...
Regards,
Similar threads
