March Market Review - Ryan Love

Do you want to BEAT THE FINANCIAL CRISIS? Join us for our March Market Review.

Ryan Love, co-founder of Apex Partners will provide an insighful look into the current state of financial markets and the economy and provide his outlook for the remainder of 2009.

The seminar will last for approximately one hour and it will be followed with light refreshments.

Wednesday, 1st April
6:30pm to 7:30pm

133 Alexander Street
Crows Nest NSW 2065

No Charge
Refreshments Provided

How about a teaser/preview of the goods you are offering?

In 12 mths time, will the following be up or down on today's values, and why?

- property
- aussie stocks
- interest rates
- gold
Thanks for your interest.

My thoughts on the next 12 months are:

- Property prices to be under pressure/stable at best. The recession we are coming into hasn't really sunk its teeth into the broader community yet, notwithstanding that is has been one of the most talked about recessions. Further employment pressures, coroporate collapses are likely. Also FHOG is uncertain and has created a mini housing bubble in some markets. The government needs to give careful consideration as to how they will deal with the unwinding of the FHOG. Every dollar in grant leads to 10x increase in purchasing power. The caveat that I put on property is that suburb-to-suburb trends can be vastly different. City rents to remain strong and cashed up long term investors may support city values. Lower interest rates to help (although that only works where you have stable employment - regional/single employer areas to be under stress).

- Aussie stocks. Next 6 months to remain volatile, although once there are signals that the worst of the economic news is behgind us the market will start to recover (toward year end). I'll be watching the US banks profit reporting very closely as this sends the direction for the market at the moment. Investing to pick a bottom is near impossible, so I am considering dollar cost averaging over the next 6 months as a remedy to hgih volatility. 2010 could be a good year for Aussie stocks. For more info, you can read this article I wrote in January at a time when many were predicting a strong recovery in 2009

- Interest rates to fall. The RBA has left room to further cut interest rates. Economic activity is stalling, employment on is on the rise. This is a cheaper and easier stimulus to the economy than goverment spending.

- Gold to remain strong. Governments are printing money to fund spending. This will at some stage lead to high inflation. Gold is used as an inflation hedge.

Let me know your thoughts on the above.


Ryan Love
Director, Apex Partners
property - agree

aussie stocks - disagree. dca-ing over the next 6mths is premature imho. there's a reasonable case that this recession will drag out for years, and for as long as interest rates are dropping or quant easing is on the cards, you'd be trying to catch falling knives. besides, the western consumer isn't going to start consuming at 2007 credit driven rates anytime soon.

rates - agree.....and after they've dropped them a few more times, Australia will most likely get quantitative easing like everyone else. though that won't work either because people willl be averse to consuming via credit, and businesses will be wary of additional credit for several years.

gold - support is building at 900. calling resistance over next 12 mths is difficult and futile. if you have gold exposure in Australia, the aud is the catch 22.