Markets price in August rate rise

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,23765032-5016110,00.html

MARKETS have almost fully priced in another interest rate rise to 7.5 per cent within five months. Rising inflationary pressures driven by higher food and oil prices are being blamed for again unsettling investors.

The spectre of another interest rate rise yesterday sent the stock markets into reverse and pushed the Australian dollar ever closer to parity with the greenback.

Investors on the Sydney Futures Exchange now rank the possibility of a rate rise by late this year as close to a 90 per cent chance.

Traders had been betting on a rate cut but last week the odds swung sharply after the Reserve Bank of Australia board minutes for May showed it thought long and hard before a rise was rejected.

Economists said the first signs of another lift in consumer spending and the RBA will be forced to head-off inflation with a 25 basis point interest rate rise to 7.5 per cent.

The uncertainty flowing from the United States, which is in the grip of a recession, sent the S&P/ASX 200 index down 1 per cent to 5707 points.

Asian markets were also down heavily yesterday after Wall Street last week had its biggest weekly fall in almost four months on speculation that higher prices will depress consumer spending and the financial sector faces more losses from the housing slump.

Market watchers expect the Australian index could drop 5 per cent over the next few months - a traditionally flat period in the markets.

Colonial First State head of investment markets research Hans Kunnen said it would be a "bumpy ride" over the next six months.

"There are concerns about more sub-prime problems in the US and weaker house prices will flow through to the corporate sector," he said.

Mr Kunnen said the markets' rally from its lows of 5039 points in mid-March had been overdone and a correction might have begun.

But he admits signs of stronger consumer spending is a double-edged sword as it could send interest rates higher but also boost investor confidence in the major retail stocks.

I dont expect this will come as a particular surprise to anyone on here.

PS. There will be another rate rise in early 2009. You read it here first.
 
Ahaha I find myself in the position of saying the market has got it right for August rate rises therefore I cannot argue that the market has got it wrong by having long term fixed rates lower than short term fixed (notwithstanding that that is exactly what happened when I bought my 2007 property).

What an awkward position. But Ill say it anyway :D
 
And a bit of financial megadoom to get the bears out of their caves and growling (and Im all out of fresh salmon...):

AUSTRALIANS are reeling in financial doom, with 2 in 3 saying their financial situation is worse now than it was a year ago and many homeowners could be forced to sell their properties if interest rates rose another 1 per cent, according to a survey.

The survey by NEWS.com.au and polling firm Coredata has found more than one in two Australians, or 67 per cent, believe their financial situation is worse now than 12 months ago. This is a significant increase from 46 per cent in a November survey.

The survey of 2331 respondents conducted on March 10 to 18 found more rate rises cold force some people to the wall. If there was a further 1 per cent rise in interest rates, almost half or 47 per cent of property investors said they would be forced to sell their homes.

Of homeowners, one in three said they would sell if the rate rose another 1 per cent.

Mortgage nightmare

Higher interest rates are hitting hard, with 76 per cent of respondents saying they are finding mortgage repayments more difficult after seven official interest rate rises in two years – and more rate rises on top of that by the big banks. That percentage is the highest in the three-year history of the survey.

The big banks have independently raised interest rates several times this year, taking standard variable mortgage rates to 9.5 per cent, their highest in over a decade.

But nearly 70 per cent of respondents thought the banks were not justified in raising rates beyond official cash rate rises., with many people saying banks were just out to lift their bottom lines.

Battle with expenses

One in five people (20 per cent) was running into debt, up from 15 per cent in the previous survey.

As expenses grow, more and borrowers are taking on second jobs or moving into more debt to make ends meet.

Indeed, home loans are eating up large chunks of household income, with 22 per cent of borrowers claiming to use 51 per cent or more of their total household income on home loan repayments.

People earning less than $50,000 are struggling the most, with almost one in three (or 31 per cent) claiming to pay more than 51 per cent of their income on loan payments.

One in 10 people with a home loan said they were late on their loan repayments from time to time.

Less money in the bank

As debt repayments grow, fewer people are saving, with 13 per cent saying they are saving a lot, down from 24 per cent in November.

Almost 1 in three borrowers, or 29 per cent, said they were just managing to make ends meet while another one in five, or 20 per cent, said they were running into debt. Another 12 per cent said they were drawing on their savings.

Property prices

Just 46 per cent of respondents expect house prices to increase in the next quarter – down from the 54 per cent in the last survey. Only 21 per cent expect house prices to fall.

But property is out of favour with investors, with 66 per cent of Australians saying they are less or much less likely to buy or invest in residential property, up from 47 per cent in the last survey.

Despite the expectations of price increases, 12.5 per cent of borrowers think they are still in negative equity, that is, their mortgage is worth more than their home.

This is a reality for many borrowers in the outer suburbs of Sydney and even Melbourne, where prices have fallen in recent times with rising interest rates.

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,23758574-5016110,00.html
 
And a bit of financial megadoom to get the bears out of their caves and growling (and Im all out of fresh salmon...):

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,23758574-5016110,00.html
Nice!

In fact, the more of this I read the happier I get. I just hope it really starts to impact household spending so the RBA can keep a cap on interest rates. If I'd read that it really wasn't hurting then I'd be resigned to ever higher interest rates. I genuinely think we're nearing the top with probably only 50bp left in it. It might hold there for a couple of years, but a full 1% rise would hurt household budgets too much I think for the RBA to go that hard.

Its hold time and get control of those cash flows. I can hold with another 1% or even 2% increase, but it would start to really hurt. I'd rather see rates top out and consolidate soon if the global money market can sort itself out. I feel it bottomed when Bear Stearns was bailed so is now just working out how to restructure itself and allow some trust to return to the market. But like all things, it takes time to rebuild trust that has evaporated due to very justified reasons.

Cheers,
Michael.
 
It might pay to factor in that the rba might raise rates by 50bps but banks are passing along further increases... and slugging commercial borrowers as well as residential.
 
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