Merrill Lynch: Australia is at the highest risk

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/11/05/17856/risky-territory/
Merrill Lynch’s much-anticipated global economics missive is out today.

The ML economists are arguing for a return to old-school style country risk analysis. They’re looking at 62 indicators for the 60 world economies they cover, plus regional aggregates (5,000 bits of data in all, the busy ML team tells us).
They’ve also constructed a risk ranking based on seven of those indicators: current account financing gap, FX reserves/short-term external debt ratio, exports to-GDP ratio, private credit-to-GDP ratio, private credit growth, loans-to deposits ratio and banks capital-to-assets ratio.
And the results are, err, the following:
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I couldn't work out what we are at the risk of doing?
Collapsing, going to deep recession? Getting corporate heartburn?:D
 
Sorry Sphinx. Had to quote this guy

Posted by Rich [report]

Nigeria is clearly the least risky country in the world. Many Nigerians e-mail me that they have $7.2 million that they wish to share with me on a 50/50 basis. They must be rolling in money!



Does that table mean they think Aus is most at risk or just "in the top ten"?
 
China of course, in Cash.:)
What is wrong with the bottom countries? not align with the world view portrayed by media propaganda? ;)

Hi Sphinx

Everything is dependent upon timeframe in investing. Personally I think China/India are the big story for the next twenty to thirty years or so. My thoughts are that other large population countries with low median age such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil are following. Countries with abundant natural resources and stable governments will do better in supplying that demand. These include Canada, Brazil and wait for it.....Australia.

There are countries that have high sovereign risk in the lower list such as Nigeria, Columbia and possibly even the Phillipines. I wouldn't put my money where the sovereign risk is high as you might never see it again.

There are subscription sites such as Stratfor that cover geopoltical risk quite well. You might want to consider looking at them.

Cheers

Shane
 
because those ten countries least likely to be affected are just fantastic places to live and operate a business....:rolleyes:

maybe 8 of the 10 are not at risk because they had nothing to offer the world in the first place - bar Russia and China clearly.
 
Based on that sage piece of advice by Merril Lynch I'd suggest moving money out of any Australian and Swiss bank account and depositing into a Nigerian, Russian or Colombian bank account.

What were these guys smoking when they put this together? I can see that some of the least risky countries are net oil producers-maybe that has figured strongly in the analysis.

In my immigration practice I occassionly see Nigerian clients. I have been enlightened by their stories of business dealings and endemic corruption in their home country. Have also heard similar stories from Indonesian clients (and experienced this first hand when dealing with the "polisi" and "immigrasi" during an extended stay in Indonesia)

Can't say my Swiss clients have similar stories to tell.

Nigeria CIA factbook

"Oil-rich Nigeria, long hobbled by political instability, corruption, inadequate infrastructure, and poor macroeconomic management, is undertaking some reforms under a new reform-minded administration. Nigeria's former military rulers failed to diversify the economy away from its overdependence on the capital-intensive oil sector, which provides 20% of GDP, 95% of foreign exchange earnings, and about 80% of budgetary revenues. The largely subsistence agricultural sector has failed to keep up with rapid population growth - Nigeria is Africa's most populous country - and the country, once a large net exporter of food, now must import food. Following the signing of an IMF stand-by agreement in August 2000, Nigeria received a debt-restructuring deal from the Paris Club and a $1 billion credit from the IMF, both contingent on economic reforms. Nigeria pulled out of its IMF program in April 2002, after failing to meet spending and exchange rate targets, making it ineligible for additional debt forgiveness from the Paris Club. In the last year the government has begun showing the political will to implement the market-oriented reforms urged by the IMF, such as to modernize the banking system, to curb inflation by blocking excessive wage demands, and to resolve regional disputes over the distribution of earnings from the oil industry. In 2003, the government began deregulating fuel prices, announced the privatization of the country's four oil refineries, and instituted the National Economic Empowerment Development Strategy, a domestically designed and run program modeled on the IMF's Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility for fiscal and monetary management. In November 2005, Abuja won Paris Club approval for a debt-relief deal that eliminated $18 billion of debt in exchange for $12 billion in payments - a total package worth $30 billion of Nigeria's total $37 billion external debt. The deal requires Nigeria to be subject to stringent IMF reviews. GDP rose strongly in 2007, based largely on increased oil exports and high global crude prices. Newly-elected President YAR'ADUA has pledged to continue the economic reforms of his predecessor and the proposed budget for 2008 reflects the administrations emphasis on infrastructure improvements. Infrastructure is the main impediment to growth. The government is working toward developing stronger public-private partnerships for electricity and roads. "

Colombia-cia factbook

"Colombia was one of the three countries that emerged from the collapse of Gran Colombia in 1830 (the others are Ecuador and Venezuela). A 40-year conflict between government forces and anti-government insurgent groups and illegal paramilitary groups - both heavily funded by the drug trade - escalated during the 1990s. The insurgents lack the military or popular support necessary to overthrow the government, and violence has been decreasing since about 2002, but insurgents continue attacks against civilians and large swaths of the countryside are under guerrilla influence. More than 32,000 former paramilitaries had demobilized by the end of 2006 and the United Self Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) as a formal organization had ceased to function. Still, some renegades continued to engage in criminal activities. The Colombian Government has stepped up efforts to reassert government control throughout the country, and now has a presence in every one of its administrative departments. However, neighboring countries worry about the violence spilling over their borders. "

Indonesia-cia factbook

"Economy - overview:
Indonesia, a vast polyglot nation, has been undergoing significant economic reforms under President YUDHOYONO. Indonesia's debt-to-GDP ratio has been declining steadily, its foreign exchange reserves are at an all-time high of over $50 billion, and its stock market has been one of the three best performers in the world in 2006 and 2007, as global investors sought out higher returns in emerging markets. The government has introduced significant reforms in the financial sector, including tax and customs reforms, the introduction of Treasury bills, and improved capital market supervision. Indonesia's new investment law, passed in March 2007, seeks to address some of the concerns of foreign and domestic investors. Indonesia still struggles with poverty and unemployment, inadequate infrastructure, corruption, a complex regulatory environment, and unequal resource distribution among regions. Indonesia has been slow to privatize over 100 state-owned enterprises, several of which have monopolies in key sectors. The non-bank financial sector, including pension funds and insurance, remains weak. Capital markets are underdeveloped. The high global price of oil in 2007 increased the cost of domestic fuel and electricity subsidies, and are contributing to concerns about higher food prices. Located on the Pacific "Ring of Fire" Indonesia remains vulnerable to volcanic and tectonic disasters. Significant progress has been made in rebuilding Aceh after the devastating December 2004 tsunami, and the province now shows more economic activity than before the disaster. Unfortunately, Indonesia suffered new disasters in 2006 and early 2007 including: a major earthquake near Yogyakarta, an industrial accident in Sidoarjo, East Java that created a "mud volcano," a tsunami in South Java, and major flooding in Jakarta, all of which caused additional damages in the billions of dollars. Donors are assisting Indonesia with its disaster mitigation and early warning efforts. "
 
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i wonder why Merryl Lynch's stock has been smashed? are they investing in these countries?

mate, regardless of what the CIA allow you to know about Nigeria, Colombia or Indonesia does not make me feel safe when the Indo govt cant even distribute $1bil of aid to Aceh and the provence without the old "a dollar for you, a dollar for me, a dollar for you, a dollar for me" penny pinching.
 
I think the overall point is being missed.

Yes ML and most of the 'good' countries are basket cases BUT

I thinkthe overall gist is that when one has excessive debt the bigger you are the harder you fall. This is probably the moral to the story. Its a bit like comparing Toorak to Broadmeadows. Now is the time to be investing in broady not Toorak (see todays news)....the lowest common denominator can be the safest when assets burst....
 
Its just plain wrong.

Third world economies which only have a single industry are particularly vulnerable to economic dislocation. Nigeria will be taking a hammering from the drop in oil prices.
 
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