My thoughts on a property market crash!!

Ok,

I have been reading threads of late with nothing to say because I am still making $$ in property and plan to do whatever happens. I see many people here speculating that the market will fall, it is too high, media is saying this or that.

I will revert to a post in a thread I made earlier that:

"Did anyone forget that somewhere like sydney had almost a decade of decline and stagnant growth from 2003? Until 2010 the market was still flat/crap... Now were meant to have a fall??

NSW survived a crap government, GFC, 9% interest rates, a flat/falling business economy, and now there is a housing shortage, new government, low unemployment, 7% interest rates the prices are meant to fall? Oh I forgot to mention rents are between 50-80% higher today than 2003.

I doubt any of the bubble bust is going to harm well bought properties."

I say this not being flippant, I say it as I am and still will be buying properties no matter what. There is two fundamental reasons of buying properties and being successful in any market.

1) Buy below market value - this ensures you have a buffer built in incase the market falls you dont lose out and that you have potential to extract equity.

2) Ensure a cashflow neutral - positive position. If times do potentially get tough then you are not forced to sell without a job etc as they are not raping your bank account.

Do not take this as advice to go on a spending spree, but as feedback as I remember all this negativity came out in the early days of my investing and people said the properties I was buying would make me bankript etc etc... I remember when I started to hear that drivel within a period of 12 months I had made $1,000,000 in equity gains. - from buying below market value, small growth and structuring correctly.

I agree with the negative sentiment also, people will get wiped out and lose money as they always do. They will pay too much for a nice property or buy an OTP property or something they have added emotion to.

Remember property investing is a business, and like an business you need to focus on the numbers. You dont buy a business because its good to lose money do you?

Just my POV on the meadia storm.

Nath.
 
Yes, Sydney house prices fell roughly 20% in real terms between 2003 and 2008. That fall was even larger compared to incomes, which rose strongly (faster than CPI) during the same period. The new Sydney boom is just getting started. Sydney house prices to approach $1M by 2015 as measured by the Residex Index...

SydneyResidexFeb11.png
 
I think those who will participate probably arent serious to buy anyways.

I doubt a little group like that will effect a population of over 20,000,000 people.

How many people are there out there who say im going to do this, im going to do that? And in fact never take action to do what they say they are anyways? There would be many of those who would fall into that mentality / support group.
 
.....because I am still making $$ in property and plan to do whatever happens.

I have to agree with you Nathan.

We've been out making money in property in the same time that academics have been arguing the case for a crash, bursting bubbles, talking up unaffordability and even selling their own properties :rolleyes:

There's always an excuse not to do something. Easy to do - easy not to do. ;)
 
I'm sick of all the bubble/crash threads.

Many regular and long time forums users agree that property may flat for a while. It's just a handful of newcomers who come on here and trot around saying "there'll be a crash, don't say I didn't warn ya" - almost like they're trolling.
 
I'm sick of all the bubble/crash threads.

Many regular and long time forums users agree that property may flat for a while. It's just a handful of newcomers who come on here and trot around saying "there'll be a crash, don't say I didn't warn ya" - almost like they're trolling.

Meh, the more talk, the more people get scared and wont buy. More for everyone else willing to take a chance.
 
Great post nathan, not much that I can disagree with.

Remember property investing is a business, and like an business you need to focus on the numbers. You dont buy a business because its good to lose money do you?
Would like to highlight this as an important point.

I think many property investors have lost sight of this, but I am pleased to see there are still those out there crunching the numbers and only buying properties that make sense without speculating on huge capital gains.

You truly are an asset to this forum and I keep an eye out for your posts, updates and stories.

I think it's worth pointing out that you really need to be property investing fulltime to achieve the sorts of results, deals and numbers that you are. The property market is now a dangerous place for the mum/dad/weekend investor who is new to the game.
 
NSW survived a crap government, GFC, 9% interest rates, a flat/falling business economy, and now there is a housing shortage, new government, low unemployment, 7% interest rates the prices are meant to fall? Oh I forgot to mention rents are between 50-80% higher today than 2003.
Nath mate
I couldn't have said it better myself.
yeah the conditions aren't right for a fall
 
What's the worst thing that can happen in a US-style crash?

Interest rates fall to 1%, dollar crashes back to 60c, govt gets its act together and re-encourages immigration/tourists/students. The consequence is:

a) Demand for rental goes up, meaning my 5-15 minute walking distance to every major hospital/uni/CBD you could think of will be even more in demand (they already are). This demand will be compounded by a no-longer-so-arrogant government and citizens (who are currently anti-immigration) as well as cheaper A$, making this place even more attractive for tourists etc

b) I pay hardly any interest due to this 1% interest rate so my already positive cf properties become even more positive. I worked out at 1% interest rates and consistent rent, I'll have a 50% return on equity per year. How good is that?

c) My cash is in the offset account and no longer needs to sit there and I'll go buy some more properties, which now have depressed prices, and generate even more passive income

Thus I retire on passive income of hundreds of k or even million at 25... no longer need to copy out graphs from one presentation to another to make a living.

As a back-drop, do I care that my property value has halved? Not really because I go from having to work to retiring on hundreds of k or even mil passive income... Do I care about what my properties are worth? It's all paper money anyway. Even if they go up 20%, I haven't materialised the wealth, so why would I care if they fall 50%...
 
yes nathen , POV propertys , rent first sell first and the only way is up, the dynamics of these proprtys allow for value adding and when the trash get out priced , they move burbs with it , truly agree.
 
If interest rates are fairly steady than I don't see the market crashing.

Oh yep great point.

The government stimulated the economy on a sign that there "could be" a "potential" "downturn". Why would the interest rates go up to a point house prices drop 50%? LOL
 
The only situation where I'd be caught out is if there is a period of high interest rates and crashing prices - meaning I'm forced to sell into a bear market.

I think I've ridden much worse bear markets than a scenario of crashing house prices and low interest rates.

Try buying AGO at $2.00 in 2008, then watching it fall to $0.30, and not get dividends in the meantime. Thank god I sold out at $3.30 the other day. But pity it's $3.70 today.
 
Ok,

Remember property investing is a business, and like an business you need to focus on the numbers. You dont buy a business because its good to lose money do you?

Nath.

Might not be true for all. It is a full time business for the guys like Nathan, but not for some of us. Many of us work full time in jobs and do the property investment on the side. And these people (including me) don't have the experience and don't devote time for the DD in the initial phase of property investment and then get pinched and cry. Then why do we come into property investment business? Because, we get facinated by reading/watching the people like Nathan making lot of money from it and we don't realise it requires lot of time, experience and efforts.
 
I'm sick of all the bubble/crash threads.

Many regular and long time forums users agree that property may flat for a while. It's just a handful of newcomers who come on here and trot around saying "there'll be a crash, don't say I didn't warn ya" - almost like they're trolling.

I fully agree. Some naysayers are always about.
There may be occasional small corrections ( which is common in ANY investment market- gold, oil, shares, etc..), but med-long term growth is very pos for Aust real estate. Real Estate is Med-Long term investment. Dont try to 'time' the market. Buy/sell when it suits you.
Dont worry about what the market is doing in the short term. The med-long term fundamentals of RE are all overwhelmigly positive.
 
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