Navra Consultation

[brains]

Hi

I had a one on one consultation after the Sydney course on Monday and decided it wasnt for me.

It would be great for a beginner investor who wants a company to look after all their financial/investing requirements, eg: source property, mortgage broking, insurances, super but i like to be hands on with my investments.

Id be interested to hear others views on their consultation after doing the course.

 

[NigelW]

Originally posted by brains
Hi

I had a one on one consultation after the Sydney course on Monday and decided it wasnt for me.

It would be great for a beginner investor who wants a company to look after all their financial/investing requirements, eg: source property, mortgage broking, insurances, super but i like to be hands on with my investments.

Id be interested to hear others views on their consultation after doing the course.

Brains

I did the course last year. Met with Steve and he was the first to agree that his cashbond strategy wasn't necessary for me at this time...but it's a tool which I may utilise in the future...

I also agree with you about keeping a hands on approach to the property selection...(altho I have to admit some of his clients seem to have done pretty well with CG (but then almost everywhere in Sydney has gone gangbusters in the past 18 months)

Without wanting to sound like a tout, I found the good thing about dealing with Steve is that there's no pressure...a lot of stirring but no pressure.

However, the share fund though looks V E R Y exciting.

Cheers

 

[brains]

I agree Nigel, the 2 things im really interested in are the cashbond
setup and especially the share fund.

 

[Mr. Fabulous]

Brains,
I went to see Steve last year and was left speechless after the consultation. He managed to solidify for myself and my girlfriend what we are trying to achieve, in that he gave us the basis of a strategy that we were comfortable with and were willing to work towards. It isn't for everyone, but it works for us and that's what is most important.
And although Steve does have lots of services on offer (which I like in certain respects, means I don't have to shop around) I also have plenty of freedom to do what I want. I know that although they are there, I don't necessarily have to use the services available - the flexibility is there if I want it.
I will be looking for my own IP's (because it's something I want to do, not because I don't believe in what Navra have on offer). And like everyone else, I too am very much looking forward to the share fund launch, from what Steve has shown me, it looks very, very promising!

Mark
'no hat, some cattle'

 

[ani]

Being somewhere between 1st and 2nd IP I didn't feel I fitted into the Navra structure at this point in time. Hopefuuly I can utilise the share fund and cashbonds in the near future.

Maybe I'd already got up to speed with the help of this forum - that is, I 'd done all the things like release equity so I could get IP no 2.

 

[sanchez]

Hey Brains

I had my consultation too. I agree that I would rather find my own properties (at least in the meantime) and whilst I think that the Rental Reality formula would definitely help to keep you out of trouble, it writes off a whole lot of good properties. These may not necessarily fit the rental reality, but will still make good buys if you are willing to do the research.

They told me straight that the cashbond system is probably not necessary for me at the moment, but I really like the idea and will probably look at it again in about a year's time when my serviceablility hits the wall. In the meantime, I am interested in the share fund too, because I dont think I really have the time to properly research shares myself.

Sanchez

 

[Bill.L]

Hi all

These thoughts that people have about doing their own research in one investment area but let someone else do it for them in another, always intrigues me. If you are prepared to do the research then you should stick to what you know with your investment dollars.

Would anyone here suggest going into debt to purchase GPT property trust?? WHY/ WHY NOT??
Would anyone care to elaborate as to why the Steve Navra share fund will be so wonderful??...... again WHY/WHY NOT??

bye

 

[Mr. Fabulous]

Bill,
Steve has been using the system for a few years now, as well as a number of clients (well, a beta version, anyway, I was one of those people). His system for picking stocks is very conservative and strict, much like Warren Buffett's and quite safe.
So, he has a track record with the system. And what a track record! Not only does he consistently beat the market (by a mile or fifty) he hasn't had a negative return (yet). And in the last few years, that's a pretty good effort. Also, he doesn't charge fees unless he does beat the market.
So I think I speak for quite a number of people that we feel supremely confident that Steve will do us right and get better returns than we can get elsewhere.

Mark
'no hat, some cattle'

 

[NigelW]

Originally posted by Bill.L
Hi all

These thoughts that people have about doing their own research in one investment area but let someone else do it for them in another, always intrigues me. If you are prepared to do the research then you should stick to what you know with your investment dollars.

Would anyone here suggest going into debt to purchase GPT property trust?? WHY/ WHY NOT??
Would anyone care to elaborate as to why the Steve Navra share fund will be so wonderful??...... again WHY/WHY NOT??

bye

Hi Bill

I think there's two reasons why people may like to keep control in some areas but are happy to be hands off in others:
1) time available; and
2) skill level

There's only so many hours in the day, particularly if your day job is one with long hours. Most people don't have time to search for hot property deals, spend all day trading their shares & options actively and managing their DIY super fund...so I suspect that people stick to the one they can do best BUT recognise that there is value in holding different asset classes.

At the end of the day you can't be an expert in everything...so your advice of sticking LARGELY to what you know is good - but equally you shouldn't take a blinkered view that direct property for example is the ONLY and BEST way to make $...

As to why the Navra share fund will be so wonderful....well time will tell with its performance I guess.

I assume the Product disclosure statement will have all the details, but I understand that one of the key differentiating features will be the fee structure. I understand that if the manager doesn't perform then they don't make much money...compare that with your typical fund manager who charges like a wounded bull EVEN FOR LOSING YOU MONEY!!!!

Crikey! I could just go out and burn $100 bills myself...I shouldn't have to pay a fund manager to do it for me!!

 

[Topnotch]

I also did Steve's course in Brisbane a couple of months ago, then did a refresher at his last one to get it all straight in my head. Very glad that I did.

Was really pleased with my one on one, then had a very good extended meeting on the Sunshine Coat with Roger & Suellen, the local reps. I'm now looking forward to the next phase and also the launch of the Managed fund.

While Steve's products might not suit everyone, the wealth of experience to draw on is exceptionally good and I'm quite prepared to go along with his company recommendations and give him the benefit of any doubt.

I am sure that by taking this line of investment I can have a good sanf and that it will allow me more time for my regular day to day business activities.

 

[Bill.L]

Thanks for the reply guys, they are very informative.

I am impressed that it is a performance based fund but I do find a bit of discrepency between Mark and Nigel...

Mark " Also, he doesn't charge fees unless he does beat the market"

Nigel "I understand that if the manager doesn't perform then they don't make much money"

Which is it? please.

One other thing that I find a little difficult to appreciate is Steves "dollar cost trading" method of investment. I've looked at his site and it appears that this method buys more shares as the price is going down and it will form part of his fund's investment style. In the long run buying things that are going down in price is just plain DUMB.

To give a full example of what I mean, I will use AMCOR as an example. It would meet the criteria of a good value stock in the Buffett methodology because of it's growth and current PER. It has traded in a sideways movement for almost a year ranging from $9 to $7.80. In the previous 2 years it had moved from below $5 to $9. In a dollar cost averaging system if the price went down to $7 it would be a candidate for purchase. However my method would be to wait until it went above $9.20,
and closed there, before purchasing.
The reason should be obvious. If the stock looks really good, and the price goes down, then there is some unknown factor at work. If the stock looks really good, and the price goes up then it is doing what it should do. I don't claim this as my method, I've just copied off the great traders who consistently beat the market.

Hopefully this will keep the discussion going.

P.S. I do think that Steve is one of the better guru's to follow, as he seems much more giving of himself.

bye

 

[D.T.]

In the long run buying things that are going down in price is just plain DUMB.

Horses for courses, I think the saying is

I don't claim this as my method, I've just copied off the great traders who consistently beat the market.

All those people who have dealt with / met Steve claim that he is a "great trader who consistently beats the market". I have yet to meet Steve so I'll keep my opinions to myself. But hopefully I will, if he ever heads west

 

[Steve Navra]

Originally posted by Bill.L

One other thing that I find a little difficult to appreciate is Steves "dollar cost trading" method of investment. I've looked at his site and it appears that this method buys more shares as the price is going down and it will form part of his fund's investment style. In the long run buying things that are going down in price is just plain DUMB.

To give a full example of what I mean, I will use AMCOR as an example.

Hi Bill,

Using Amcor as the example.

For the record, my returns for AMC for the last 2 years are as follows:

End financial year
2001: 18.61%
2002: 27.43%

Last 365 days: 13.69%

(Dividend income NOT included in above returns)

Pretty DUMB returns I guess. . .

In a closed market system, every dollar you make has been lost by someone else . . . perhaps by these who buy as the price goes up??

Anyway thanks Bill

Regards,

Steve

 

[Alan H]

Great discussion Bill.

I would make a couple of points:

1. You mentioned Amcor had traded in a range of $7.80 to $9.00. Sounds about right. Let's firstly clarify that this has NOT generally been a direct fall from $9.00 to $7.80 but rather a 'fluctuation' throughout this range. Indeed as of Friday it was $8.19 and may well go up a little more today. Therefore, depending on when you bought and sold within this period it would indeed seem possible that profits could have been made.


2. You also said "Some unknown factor is occurring if the price goes down". (Excuse me if that wasn't a direct quote.....I think it was pretty close).

'Efficient Market'? I don't know. Even with my EXTREMELY limited knowledge of the stockmarket I continually see the price of individual shares fluctuate totally independent of the fundamentals of the company(You did mention Buffett :; )
Helicopter down in the middle east and the price of a container manufacturer falls. Huh?

It would appear to me that a not insignificant part of share prices are about 'sentiment' and sentiment is about how people are feeling at the time........and being 'people', most do the same thing at the same time.

I know this is simplifying(possibly oversimplifying?) things but combining both of these points could also mean that buying certain shares when they are falling may not necessarily be so DUMB afterall. Please note I said 'some shares'

I do have a general question though(for anyone?) which has been rattling around my thick old head lately, and that question is to do with a stocks current value. Having a reasonably good knowledge of its 'current value' could certainly influence some of your buying and selling decisions.

What is the most sensible way of evaluating this figure and for your 'average Joe' investor, where can such valuations be obtained at a reasonable price?

'Intrinsic Value' from someone like Benjamin Graham that takes into account EPS/EPS Growth and Bond Yields is one possibility, but even this throws up some pretty unrealistic figures on occasions.

While buying against market sentiment may(or may not?) be sensible I think it would be agreed that the 'true value' of a share will change over time and factoring this value into your decision making process would be sensible.

I may well be asking the unanswerable question. Any takers?

 

[Bill.L]

Hi all

Where to start. Steve, good returns there on AMCor and they are pretty much the same as mine for 2002 as I bought in May 01 at about $6.50 and sold in October last for $8.40. I bought when the price was going UP as it was a new high for the year and fundamentals were good(for me).
Using a different example AMP, which was used on another thread, (and assuming you liked the fundamentals), it's price was at $16.30 in May down at the lows of the previous 18 months. Let's assume a purchase is made. About 2 months later when the price is at $15 and you have an 8% loss, dollar cost averaging would say buy more. The logic being if it is good value at $16.30 it is better value at $15. You might think the same at $14...$13....$12.. AT what point in this type of strategy do you say .... Gee I must be wrong!! Meanwhile you have kept throwing MORE money into a losing position.

The mistake property investors make is that they treat the sharemarket/property market the same in terms of investing. They are different as a share can (and often does) go to $0. (Just ask holders of One-tel,HIH,Pasminco,Ansett,Quintex.Bond corp..etc) A property is unlikely to go to $0(unless it slides into the sea.. )

Alan to answer your question, I'm not talking about the noise that happens in the market every day. I'm talking about moves outside of the normal range in a significant time frame. Information about companies can be gleaned from their annual reports that can be obtained in pdf format through the asx web site. What to look for is best sumarized in Peter Lynch's book "One Up On Wall St."

bye

 

[Alan H]

Bill,

Thanks for the Reading List Referral. The Peter Lynch book sounds interesting.

A couple of questions for you......

1. Based on your 'Fundamantals' criteria, would you have owned One-tel, HIH, Bond Corp etc. at the time?

2. Do you believe that there is money to be made in "the noise that happens in the market every day" if the fundamentals of the stock are sound?

Damn! There's another book I'll probably have to read.

 

[brains]

Alan,

The noise in the market everyday is great for daytraders and speculators but of not much significance for investors.

Sounds like a good book, i'll put it on my list.

 

[Alan H]

Brains,

Couldn't you take an initial(and ongoing...) position with a company based on sound fundamentals(investor point of view) and accumulate as a 'trader'?

Are you then an 'investor' or a 'trader'?

Ahhhhh.......I know......I know.......I'll stop now.

 

[Bill.L]

Hi Alan

One of the interesting things about the fundamentals (or funnymentals as has been described be some traders), is that they can change overnight or the books can be cooked. Thats why the regulators go after the corporate cowboys who go on holiday to spanish islands.

ALL share purchases are regarded as a trade, as I plan to sell them at some stage. If they keep going up in price I may hold for a long time. If they go down in price I wont hold them for very long at all.

Is there money to be made in the noise? You bet ya!! but usually with options,futures. But the I am trading on technicals and macro's when looking at a stock.

Now if you want another book to read, may I suggest Jack Schwagers "Market Wizards" as an excellent book.

bye

 

[Alan H]

Bill,

Your costing me a fortune every time I 'talk' to you!

Ok......ok......there goes another book on the reading list.........