Next Rate Move
- Thread starter TJamesX
- Start date
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20564290-601,00.html
The usual story. If people are concerned enough that rates will rise and cut spending, a rate rise won't be necessary.
The usual story. If people are concerned enough that rates will rise and cut spending, a rate rise won't be necessary.
Are you saying that they won't rise in Nov because people have cut back on spending already or that they will now?
I assume that the CPI figures are already pretty much determined and when they are released later in the month, that is almost soley what the RBA will be acting upon.....
Cheers,
TJ
Catch 22. If people cut back on spending in anticipation of the rate rise, the rate rise won't happen. I think the September qtr inflation figures reflect whether people reponded to the Aug rate rise. If they didn't, the RBA is going to hit them again.
Alex
I think rates will go up a tad...maybe not a lot...but people are now spending money for Xmas....getting things (ie projects) completed before Xmas. And then there's the big pre-Xmas spend-up for presents, holidays, guests, etc. Many companies close down for Xmas and pay holiday pay, and the military have lots of postings around Xmas time....so lots of money being paid out in the next 3 months.
cheers
Sharon
cheers
Sharon
I vote for interest rates to drop and property prices to rise and we all get wealthy
Cheers
Simon
Cheers
Simon
I vote for interest rates to drop and property prices to rise and we all get wealthy
Cheers
Simon
I vote for you to make the financial decisions for this country.
I vote for interest rates to drop and property prices to rise and we all get wealthy
Cheers
Simon
I vote for interes rises to go up so that the financially inept get shaken out and WE get wealthy. If everyone gets wealthy from something like general property prices rising, it'll eventually hit inflation.
Alex
Rates rise predicted:
"The financial markets now suggest there is a 60 per cent chance the RBA will move next month.
The odds have lengthened from about 30 per cent one week ago."
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,20572355-952,00.html
cheers
Sharon
"The financial markets now suggest there is a 60 per cent chance the RBA will move next month.
The odds have lengthened from about 30 per cent one week ago."
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,20572355-952,00.html
cheers
Sharon
Christmas rate rises - are they doing that again - we must be a long way out from an election - and don't give me the argument that the RBA is independant and not influenced by the encumbent gov't.
But to answer the question: If 65 % of the population agree that rates are going to rise at least 25 basis points (reflective of the poll here ) then RBA will not need to increase rates. After all what they are trying to do is influence spending habits and change sentiment - this is done in many ways - the actual rate rise is just one of them. Ie change planned purchasing and spending from now into the new year.
Probably easier to watch movement in the currency as a predictor of rates.
But to answer the question: If 65 % of the population agree that rates are going to rise at least 25 basis points (reflective of the poll here ) then RBA will not need to increase rates. After all what they are trying to do is influence spending habits and change sentiment - this is done in many ways - the actual rate rise is just one of them. Ie change planned purchasing and spending from now into the new year.
Probably easier to watch movement in the currency as a predictor of rates.
From what I have observed from general news and forums etc is that the reaction to this possible rate rise has been far less than the one's a few months ago. Back then anything on smh.com.au about interest rates or property were the most viewed articles - not now...... It seems to be a little off the radar.... maybe the petrol price decreases have helped more than most would think?
To me, this all points to another rate rise at least.. if the inflation figures don't come down
TJ
PS. I should add that the market took absolutely no notice of the possible rate rise either - a few months ago the markets were flying about on every bit of news to do with inflation and rates and where they would go....... Its like its totally left the markets consciousness.
so, what you're saying is that we all need to vote "yes" and then send a copy of the poll to the rba?
I've been watching the RBA's posting of 2/3/5 year bond rates and the curve is inverted lately. It means long term money is cheaper than short term money, so the banks are in a position to pass on savings. Since the housing market is cooling, they need to make things a little more attractive so they lower fixed rates.
That being said, the 30 day rate has popped over 6% so I think the market is saying the rates are going to go up.
Jireh
Yield curve has been inverted all through 2006. Economic theory suggests that this is a sign of future recession however this has not occurred nor is it likely to do so based on the continued strength of our economy. As of Mon last week, there was only a 40% chance of a Nov rate hike. Now that probability has shot to 85 if not 100%. With that the 3 year bond futures had also sold off nearly 25bps so its been bad timing by the "retail" areas to be discounting their fixed rates. They will fill their quotas soon or will be pressured by management to increase them by end of the week again, if not after the 4% CPI figure mid next week which will continue the bearish run for medium term rates. Suncorp fixed for 3 years at 6.99% doesn't seem such a bad proposition when markets are factoring another 40% chance of another 25bps in Q1 next year with no rate cut in the horizon (unlike US where they think Fed will start to decrease rates by Q3/4 of 07). However when rates do fall, it won't just be one or two moves. Perhaps thats when Syd market will take off again? Mid 08??
yes - if you vote by reducing discretionary spending they might take notice
