I believe all I've ever read is that prices always go up over time, with prices doubling generally every ten years. This means on average a rise of 10% compounded every year. But what about Brisbane where prices rose 20% last year, using the average of 10% per year this would indicate that the Brisbane market would slow, even possibly draw -ve prices somewhere over the next few years. Or maybe because Brisbane is only part of the overall housing market they will continue to have strong growth (not 20%) while other cities like Sydney will experience little or negative growth with property Australia wide still managing an average growth of 10%.
Keep in mind that the doubling effect is likely not to occur if you buy at the peak. There are people who bought in Sydney three or four years ago who if they sold today would lose money. They may need to wait twenty years to see their investment double in value.
This does not mean that the general law of growth is wrong, it is simply that if you want average returns over time then you would need to pay an average price rather than buy during a housing peak. Like shares you buy low and sell high to get the highest capital growth (or you hold and draw on equity to compound your returns).
I have never read on this forum or anywhere else that housing prices only ever go up, it has always been over time, on average housing doubles every ten years. This is supported by previous housing cycles. If it takes twelve years this time and eight years the next time we are still talking averages.
Shares generally claim the same averages, and they can be a hell of a lot more volitile than housing. Personally I don't see how this average is acheived when the lender can force an investor to sell at the worst possible time by making a margin call, but people accept that stock prices rise and fall but increase in value over time.
Regards
Andrew
