Hmmm... lets see how ugly the vals are
Maybe we'll be pleasantly surprised, but.....
That's unfortunately the single biggest problem Brisbane and SE Qld has at the moment - vals. It's affecting new stock , and therefore NRAS, particularly harshly, but it's really hitting everywhere and everyone. New stock. Established stock. I see it day after day, week after week, and it's showing no sign of changing. I could tell you about literally hundreds of deals on Brisbane apartments and SEQld townhouses and houses where it's basically impossible to find val's within 7-8% of the asking price. That means 30-40K shortfalls are almost par for the course on any of those types of purchases in any of those areas- and those are the good ones! The bad vals- well, double or triple that figure and you'll start to see it.
I know of developments sold OTP 18-24 months ago in Bowen Hills, Fortitude Valley, Underwood, Maroochydoore, the list goes on... settling now and coming in 10,12, 15% under. People need to come to the realisation that the market as it is right now, is the new normal for the medium term. This is why I looooove hearing the endless optimism of the capital growth spruikers. They continue to ignore every single fundamental fact of todays market , every thing valuers and banks are saying , and just pump out the same old supply v demand story from yesteryear's market, hoping the same formula that worked in yesteryear will produce the same results today, while in every instance, they completely ignore the fact that the availability of credit has changed dramatically, if not forever then certainly for a generation. How's that cap growth strategy working out for the thousands of buyers who bought from them in the last couple of years, me wonders? ....hmmm. Underwater much?
Anyway- as Ive said a thousand times- Stay away from Qld at the moment unless you are prepared to cover the inevitable valuation shortfalls. Yes there are some exceptions scattered here and there but by and large it's a train wreck best avoided for the next 12 months at least, and besides- there's only so much information I can give you free of charge lol
Here's the best freebie I can offer you- the best valuations for NRAS deals right now are the completed ones in Melbourne, Bendigo and Geelong and Ballarat, or the rare gem like Carol picked up in Perth, which I assume came back onto the market at some form of discount because someone couldn't settle ... val issue perhaps? All the other options available today are dangerous or dumb at the moment - Off The Plan is just too risky in this market- paying a 10% deposit for todays price and hoping it values up in 2 years is just too dangerous. Just take a look at Brisbane or the Gold Coast right now! It should help you see the risk pretty clearly. That leaves House and Land in Qld, VIC and SA at the moment, and a scattering of crazy nutty quadplex and qunitplex stuff in WA. I mean really- the numbers might add up on paper but how many lenders will take those as security? lets get serious, please. SA House and Land is OK, it's generally only 15- 20K off ( not tooooo bad I guess) but there are only 150 NRAS houses left in SA. Qld- thousands available but you know the story there all too well. Nothing much around in NSW basically. Australand do have about 61, 2 bedroom townhouses coming at "the ponds" in about 12 months for around 400K which look quite inviting, but they havent even sorted out the consortium side of things yet - hopeless! Vic is where it's at for this year. WA will have some good stuff in about 12-18 months, and all the unsold stock from the current Qld disaster stories will come back on in about a year, discounted by 15 or 20%- they'll be good buying then.
Free insights over
