Oakajee

[Breamster]

Anyone else following the Oakajee Port developments in the past week involving Padbury Mining, and the indication today that Roland Bleyer is associated with the $6bn funding for the project?

Seems there are a fair few in the industry and around the ASX who have a heap of scepticism regarding Bleyer, and even Premier Barnett has questioned the substance behind Padbury's plans.. Barnett was quoted in paper last week as saying that CITIC in China now has genuine interest in developing the port.

Oakajee's future is still uncertain. Im an optimist, and I hold property at Geraldton. But it would seem, even from an objective point of view, there is too much top quality iron ore in the ground in the mid west that simply needs to be dug up and sold. Eventually it will happen.. just my 2c.

Interesting week involving Padbury, however..

 

[R377]

I hold property there too. We have been teased for years now that this will go ahead....

 

[HotRod]

Hair growth to $6B mining investor.

Seems legit...........

 

[Breamster]

I like it..

 

[strongy1986]

Anyone think any other towns would benefit from oakajee?
There's a lot of small towns in the mid west that I have considered a few times but really it would only be speculative
I'm sure the yields would be easy 10% though

 

[b simpson]

Oakajee's future is still uncertain. Im an optimist, and I hold property at Geraldton. But it would seem, even from an objective point of view, there is too much top quality iron ore in the ground in the mid west that simply needs to be dug up and sold. Eventually it will happen.. just my 2c.

Interesting week involving Padbury, however..

Yes I'm looking with interest also. I bought there last year because I firmly believe there is plenty of stuff to dig up in the mid west.

Barnett has dismissed padbury a number of times, and recently said it's all about magnetite ore for china, apparently that's different to normal iron ore not that I'm an expert.

We have been teased for years now that this will go ahead....

It seems the locals have been teased about this for so many years many of them have just given up on it happening at all.

 

[redwing]

Anyone else following the Oakajee Port developments in the past week involving Padbury Mining, and the indication today that Roland Bleyer is associated with the $6bn funding for the project?

Seems there are a fair few in the industry and around the ASX who have a heap of scepticism regarding Bleyer, and even Premier Barnett has questioned the substance behind Padbury's plans.. Barnett was quoted in paper last week as saying that CITIC in China now has genuine interest in developing the port.

Oakajee's future is still uncertain. Im an optimist, and I hold property at Geraldton. But it would seem, even from an objective point of view, there is too much top quality iron ore in the ground in the mid west that simply needs to be dug up and sold. Eventually it will happen.. just my 2c.

Interesting week involving Padbury, however..

Whats CITIC said?

 

[Breamster]

Not sure exactly what CITIC has said. Only going from what Premier Barnett has been quoted as saying in the press. Barnett has been quoted as saying last week or so that CITIC hold a solid level of interest in developing the area generally and becoming involved with the project, and he also suggested that China sees the type of iron ore that is in the mid west to be much more valuable to them than the stuff from other regions. Barnett is saying that he is confident China will take the lead.

 

[Cruskits]

Hi

Girlfriend and I currently living in Drummonds Cove, this is the new development built to cash in on the Oakajee development, halfway between Gero and Oakajee, 10 mins north of town.

We are in GROH housing (teachers). Sometimes when we walk the dog around the streets you can see up to 7 yes SEVEN For Sale signs standing in one spot. Needless to say you can pick up a bargain at the moment. Many brand new 4x2's for $420,000 on the market but i'm sure you could get it cheaper with the amount of stock.

None of the locals are into this Padbury mob and like someone else said they have heard it all before and will not get there hopes up until a shovel hits the ground. They probably still won't believe it until its fully built quite honestly.

What this does mean though is that not as many people in Gero will invest in housing based on Oakajee as a heap of people I have met socialising did get burnt and have been left with negative equity.

Great time to pick up a bargain if you can get the timing right with Barnett finally getting his baby off the ground and the Chinese announce the start of the works.

Would I do it?? No, better deals to be had IMHO. Saying that people will make money so each to their own.

 

[Blacky]

I also have property in glenfield (just south of drummonds).

I bought there when I was planning on living there, but that all changed. Property prices took a hammering and I'm still sitting on negative equity. Though it has bounced since its low.

Some people in the area I own bought at $200k+ for 600sqm of land. It's bottom was about $90k and it's sitting about $150k now.

Oakagee hasn't progressed since I left. 7years ago. I wouldn't be banking on it any time soon.

I like Gero as a market. A lot of the govt workers are living in GROH housing which gives good returns.
It is one of the cheaper coastal areas in WA and the region is stable (farming and fishing). However there are still a lot of problems with social housing.

Blacky

 

[Breamster]

Very interesting to hear from those on the ground near Geraldton. Thanks for your feedback.

I too have heard about some negative equity situations. Such a shame to hear that.

Padbury situation does not sound positive at all. With Bleyer involved it sounds extremely questionable, as to motives etc. But with Barnett poo pooing it yesterday even more is almost a nail in their coffin? time will tell. Interesting to see what happens to the share price once they're up and running again.

Interestingly the average growth rate for Geraldton over the past 10 yrs is around 12-13%, and there have been a substantial high and low in those graphs. But overall a decent return over time. I think much of the highs driven by increased positive speculation about Oakajee. Likewise with Mitsubishi pulling out mid last year and with some mining slow down, there has been a good increase in vacancies over recent months.

However, for me I much like Geraldton without Oakajee. It is an extremely solid economy with a good contribution to WA's GDP with a firm basis of agriculture, fishing, tourism (with a heap of room to improve), and the current port at Geraldton.

Hopefully the SKA Astronomy project (which is a huge deal..) should bring some good jobs and growth. I think Geraldton overall should be solid. I suppose Oakajee would simply be cream on top.

 

[D_One]

I thought Citic will be scared of any more projects in Australia, especially after what Clive Palmer has put them through and the cost blowout on the Sino project.

 

[Blacky]

While I like it. You must be careful where you buy. In the past there has been massive land releases sometimes with thousands of vacant blocks available at a time. It's still a relatively small market for the amount of land being released.

10 years ago when I first arrived I could pick up a vacant block for $40k. Missed out on a house 4x2 in tarcoola for $204k. In hind site I'm kicking myself. So yes an average growth rate of 10% sounds reasonable, hower prices still remain about 20% below their peak in some areas.

I don't see it booming soon due to continual land availability. but I think steady growth. It is a town of relatively strong fundamentals.

Just my thoughts.

Blacky

 

[b simpson]

I thought Citic will be scared of any more projects in Australia, especially after what Clive Palmer has put them through and the cost blowout on the Sino project.

The cost blowout at Sino was citic's causing. If they had an idea of how to run a project things would have been vastly different.

 

[Breamster]

What perplexes me is how Padbury have become involved with Bleyer.. to the tune of $6bn..?!! They've sprouted it as the saving grace for the Oakajee project, but where the financier comes from a very dubious past to say the least..

Mr Stokes doesn't sound or appear to be a dill. It really surprises me. He and the other directors have been around a long time.

It almost beggars belief that a company, albeit a smaller mining operator, would not have done their checks on this guy.

 

[redwing]

The cost blowout at Sino was citic's causing. If they had an idea of how to run a project things would have been vastly different.

Wasn't MCC the EPCM in the early days?

Nearly all projects seem to have massive cost blow outs nowadays

I well remember FMG and cartoons of the day in the west when they were trying to get their first ore on ship

 

[rockDr]

I'm not sure all these mid-west iron ore projects will get up.

You only have to look at the Pilbara, plenty of iron ore, and by plenty I mean a few hundred years of supply at current production rates.

The Pilbara is dominated by three main players, who can still turn a good profit when the iron ore price falls. Which inevitably it will, once demand catches up with supply.

The real question is all about supply. Does the world have enough high grade iron ore at current rates, and the answer is an emphatic, yes. If we were looking at massive shortages then the project would be in construction already.

A falling iron ore price doesn't bode well for massive infrastructure development for stranded resources.

Would happy to be proven wrong, but I just don't see it happening. Due diligence would have been done on the project by numerous companies, and they all obviously thought that at current prices, and forecasts going forward, they are not going to make more than money in the bank.

Will see how it pans out, but I don't think there will be a lot of dirt getting dug up that way for a long time.

Just my two cents.

 

[R377]

I think the Oakajee project might be a blessing in disguise. It could of been a mini gladstone or muswellbrook where everyone man and his dog will be developing new houses eventually leading to an oversupply.

I think most of the core suburbs in around Gero itself got around 4-6%pa growth in the past 12 months.

Regional properties are always behind the main city in terms of trends or growth.