Once in a Hundred Year Property Slump

Hey Pete

Don't know where I can pick up a cheap plasma do you?

;)

Great post

Cheers

Shane

Thanks Shane, two kudos?!?! must have hit a rich vein of cynical boomers.
Go LCD I say, much cheaper to run and from latest reviews I have seen as good as Plasma.

My strategy;
1. research
2. go to Harvey Norman 29th /30th Sept
3. screw a deal form desperate salesmana looking to hit target for the quarter.

Peter
 
The inside scoup on Residex comments was apparently to illicit a reaction from the Board and the media, which it obviously had. Markets now pricing in almost 125bps cut by this time next year. Nice work John!
 
the RBA will be start taking the pain away. Why? becaue Plasma sales have slumped.

Brilliant post Peter.

I was talking with Mrs Beef about exactly the same thing last Saturday after seeing G. Harvey's face on what seemed like every business report the previous week.

Over our first coffee, we decided it's time to completely ignore the All Ords and instead develop a "Plasma Index", just so we can all get a real feel for the direction of the economy.

Then I opened the Saturday's West Australian business pages (p73) and there is an almost half page picture of an elderly customer with a trolley standing in front of a wall of glowing TV's. The text reads

"Worth watching. Australian consumers have already factored a rate cut into their spending patterns, snatching up such things as flat screen TV's"

It seems quaintly funny now, and I still wonder in amazement at whether fundamentals have really changed that much, but I bet you can remember a time when a healthy economy was based on bank deposits, now it seems the exact opposite.

But I'm not an economist, politician or any sort of expert so I'll probably just remain dazed and confused, and go out this week to buy my first cheap plasma.

Cheers,
Beef
 
Thanks Beef Hooked

At 41 I don't consider myself old but clearly, I am, as I constantly find myself complaining about "young people" of today.

The fact is, that very likely, the same % of fools are in every generation since say the 60's but today's MEDIA EVERYWHERE world we see it more and it reported more.

When I think anout friends I grew up with I dont know any with IPS or really substantial wealth despite some having Uni Quallifications which I do not. My own sister is a welfare mum and many of her friends the same.

My problem is I cannot stand Hypocrites! Those that lament they cannot buy a home have the new car, Ipod, Phone, holidays etc... Don't ***** about having no money when you spend it all!

Peter 14.7
 
Thanks Beef Hooked
My problem is I cannot stand Hypocrites! Those that lament they cannot buy a home have the new car, Ipod, Phone, holidays etc... Don't ***** about having no money when you spend it all!
Peter 14.7

Yes I agree and I too get annoyed and many times when a friend or associate gets into trouble theres a clear path out of their woes but heaven forbid if they "had step down a little from their current lifestyle" but... the same logic applies to many other attitudes e.g.

1. Dont like your job? go get trained in something else - oh cant be stuffed but... i can watch TV all day.

2. I'm fat and want to loose weight - oh but im only eating KFC to treat myself, and yesterday it was only because i came home late oh and the day before was...

3. I have no money - oh but I have money for smokes, drink and gambling.

and obviously the one that applies to property (and any investment in general) - oh but I need a car, tv (yes but why brand new 4wd Forrester & a plasma) ill reduce my loan next year or invest next year.

The problem when addressing the issue of "housing afford-ability" is that we must resist the temptation to simplify the issue by blaming individuals for their own stupidity.

Take for example smoking, why ban it? We all know its wrong to smoke but we do anyways. Why have superannuation? we can all save a few dollars for later cant we?

Obviously whenever something is a miss or goes wrong individuals are ultimately to blame. This is why Rules and regulations are there to protect us... from ourselves.. and when things go as wrong as they are right now its because of bad or non-existent policy.

Give people the means and there will ALWAYS be those to take it up regardless of how obviously stupid it maybe.

It was only about 2 or so years ago when CBA was advertising using your house for security for a car? a holiday? i.e. it was the smart thing to do.. Which ofcourse it is, a home loan is cheaper than credit cards but.... credit cards have a relatively small limit for most whereas a house is usually large and hence a bigger chance of going overboard.

So yes I have little sympathy for individual cases especially when they have two brand new cars outside their 5 bedroom mcmansion which is on the brink of being repossessed. However on a macro level try to not refer to individual cases, I blame government for lack of engagement to prevent the situation from arising whereby "individuals" can be allowed to do such stupidity.

In short its a balancing act of two theories "free market" and "government regulation" but when it fails as badly as it has then thats a clear sign the market failed.

I am probably rambling now so ill surmise in saying on a macro level governments to blame but on an individual basis in most cases they only have themselves to blame....
 
Cannot give more kudos Tcocaro but I would if I oculd.

I also understadn some people are never in a position to get ahead. The adness od today is that those very people are the ones targetted by the credit cards sharks, loc/no docs, etc.. and the Gov Legislation dont not protect them.

Gov has an obligation to protect those less educated and does with Coling Off periods and such. There should be rules against U18 getting credit cards/mobiles without thier parents consent and parents guarantor of the debt.

Probably is therefore go the reverse, no liability for any debts incurred under 18, they are deemed null and void for adult credit purposes.

I wonder how many banks/mobile provider will offer deals if that was the comeback?

Peter 14.7
 
Probably is therefore go the reverse, no liability for any debts incurred under 18, they are deemed null and void for adult credit purposes.

I wonder how many banks/mobile provider will offer deals if that was the comeback?

Peter 14.7

and here lies the problem, I started investing at a VERY young age and without "gaps" in the legislative and regulatory regime I wouldnt be where i am today atleast not as quickly.

The problem is everyone "thinks" they know etc. I think a better approach would be have a positive CRA (which is in the works) that show not only negative but positive news.

This way it will show that an 18 year old has 5 credit cards so when he does go for that car loan "in theory" the lender would say no on the grounds that he is obviously on a vicious debt spiral and hence stops the dramatic debt binge (despite perhaps "currently" keeping up with payments)

Everything has a pro-con especially against those that "manage themselves" then regulation is a curse however as a developer I enjoy less regulation but still get stung by it as the majority of people fall into the trap its absence leaves and as a consequence buys less properties etc etc.

This is a hard dilemma and unfortunately I think the best approach is a structure that leaves the idiots that pervert the system to get a plasma to fall by the wayside but still manage to somehow protect those that get "swept up" in the marketing spin of Harvey Norman etc (but really all they are doing is taking advantage of facilities the banks laid out anyways)

The market does however albeit late in the piece correct itself... I am sure its harder now to draw down on your loan without the bank atleast say.. "uhmmmm why" - but this is only because the reality of human stupidity is now costing the banks i.e. selling their used plasma down the track wont pay for the loan they are defualting on.
 
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