One for the valuers

[mrmonopoly]

G'day

As the heading suggests this is probably one for the valuers or more specifically the Herron Todd White Valuers, but the general HTW April month in review will probably be of interest to investors alike so thought I would post here anyway.

http://htw.com.au/Month_in_Review/Month-In-Review-April-2012.pdf

So i've noticed a disparity in a few of the property clock/market indicators from various organisations of late and so while reading the chart on page 44, it made me think: How can Sydney units be in the 'declining market' stage of the property cycle, but also have properties selling above their potential resale value happening on a 'very frequent' basis? Surely the latter contradicts the former, or is my analysis paralysis finally getting to me?

 

[Rolf Latham]

G'day

As the heading suggests this is probably one for the valuers or more specifically the Herron Todd White Valuers, but the general HTW April month in review will probably be of interest to investors alike so thought I would post here anyway.

http://htw.com.au/Month_in_Review/Month-In-Review-April-2012.pdf

So i've noticed a disparity in a few of the property clock/market indicators from various organisations of late and so while reading the chart on page 44, it made me think: How can Sydney units be in the 'declining market' stage of the property cycle, but also have properties selling above their potential resale value happening on a 'very frequent' basis? Surely the latter contradicts the former, or is my analysis paralysis finally getting to me?

tis an art Sir, not a science

ta
rolf

 

[BAJ]

Shine the light and watch them scatter !!

G'day

As the heading suggests this is probably one for the valuers or more specifically the Herron Todd White Valuers, but the general HTW April month in review will probably be of interest to investors alike so thought I would post here anyway.

http://htw.com.au/Month_in_Review/Month-In-Review-April-2012.pdf

So i've noticed a disparity in a few of the property clock/market indicators from various organisations of late and so while reading the chart on page 44, it made me think: How can Sydney units be in the 'declining market' stage of the property cycle, but also have properties selling above their potential resale value happening on a 'very frequent' basis? Surely the latter contradicts the former, or is my analysis paralysis finally getting to me?

..........LIES, LIES and DAMN STATISTICS


I feel your confusion and believe me having compiled statistics for many clients before Residex or RP Data were thought of you can get a wide variation if the proper filters arent in place.

Used a simple "average" analysis will give a very differant figure to the statistically more correct "mean". Further, analysis of a single Post Code, can, and does from experience give differant figures to the micro-analysis of a single suburb within a Post Code.

Always accept the validity of the data with a grain of salt.

 

[INVSTOR]

Yes, as above. One of my friends writes reports and he said to me, "You'd be very happy to know that one of the suburbs you invest in has the highest rental return in this city for houses". When I looked into it further, I found a few really dumpy houses had recently sold for e.g. $300,000. Most of the houses for rent in the area had been updated or renovated and were renting for $350/wk. The dumpy houses that needed a lot of work would have rented for about $250-$300wk, not $350/wk as per the stats. (Maybe if Nathan had of bought them it would be a different story. )

 

[wobbycarly]

..........LIES, LIES and DAMN STATISTICS


I feel your confusion and believe me having compiled statistics for many clients before Residex or RP Data were thought of you can get a wide variation if the proper filters arent in place.

Used a simple "average" analysis will give a very differant figure to the statistically more correct "mean". Further, analysis of a single Post Code, can, and does from experience give differant figures to the micro-analysis of a single suburb within a Post Code.

Always accept the validity of the data with a grain of salt.

Can you explain how average and mean are different? And how is one "more correct" than the other? Agree on your other comments.

 

[boods99]

Average and mean are one and the same thing.
Thinking he was meaning median

Boods

 

[BAJ]

Average and mean are one and the same thing.
Thinking he was meaning median

Boods

Thank you Boods....you are correct.....I meant Median.

 

[BAJ]

Can you explain how average and mean are different? And how is one "more correct" than the other? Agree on your other comments.

"Median" is the middle occuring number in a series of numbers. In the value of properties contex it is a more accurate statistical number because it is not so skewed as dramatically as an "average" number is if there are very high or very low sales within a suburb.

 

[wobbycarly]

"Median" is the middle occuring number in a series of numbers. In the value of properties contex it is a more accurate statistical number because it is not so skewed as dramatically as an "average" number is if there are very high or very low sales within a suburb.

I know the difference between median and average/mean. I was checking if you did.

 

[BAJ]

I know the difference between median and average/mean. I was checking if you did.

I thank you sir

 

[Dazz]

..........LIES, LIES and DAMN STATISTICS


I feel your confusion and believe me having compiled statistics for many clients before....

Always accept the validity of the data with a grain of salt.

.....I guess the reason people thought up that saying about lies, damn lies and statistics was they didn't trust nor believe the statisticians pumping them out.

Never trust someone who says 'believe me'....

 

[BAJ]

.....I guess the reason people thought up that saying about lies, damn lies and statistics was they didn't trust nor believe the statisticians pumping them out.

Never trust someone who says 'believe me'....

"........So what - go away and be sick. Care factor nil"

 

[Dazz]

Your entire credibility as a career statistician is trashed by those above who caught you out not knowing basic Yr 8 stuff and you say so what ??

Coolo - no worries....I'll dismiss your opinion as a complete joke from now on.

 

[Scott No Mates]

"Median" is the middle occuring number in a series of numbers . In the value of properties contex it is a more accurate statistical number because it is not so skewed as dramatically as an "average" number is if there are very high or very low sales within a suburb.

Unless there are few sales other than those from new developments.

 

[wobbycarly]

Unless there are few sales other than those from new developments.

Great point. A median on its own can be as "skewed" as a mean, without micro analysis.