Overdose

Monday 23rd on 4 Corners

This is the story about the greatest financial crisis we will ever see.........The one that is on it's way

ABC 4 Corners

Have you maxed out your credit card? Bought shares with borrowed money? Taken out a large home loan believing that prices always go up? Then you may be living on borrowed time. Filmmaker Martin Borgs takes a provocative look at the events leading up the Global Financial Crisis and asks if the attempts to avoid a ruinous collapse of banks and other major finance houses may set the world on the path to an even bigger meltdown.

When the world's financial bubble blew, the solution was to lower interest rates and pump trillions of dollars into the sick banking system. On the face of it this seemed the only way to deal with impending disaster, but was it?

"The solution is the problem, that's why we had a problem in the first place," Economics Nobel laureate Vernon Smith says. For him, the Catch 22 is self-evident. Interest rates have been at rock bottom for years, and governments are running out of fuel to feed the economy. He asks:

"The governments can save the banks, but who can save the governments?"

Forecasts predict many countries will see their debt reach 100 per cent of their Gross Domestic Product in the near future. Greece and Iceland have already crumbled, who will be next?

The storm that would rock the world began in the United States when congress pushed the idea of home ownership for all, propping up those who couldn't make the mortgage down payments. The market even coined the term NINA loans, meaning "No Income, No Assets, No Problem!" Enter FannieMae and FreddieMac, privately owned, government sponsored mortgage houses. "Want that vacation? Wanna buy some new clothes? Use your house as a piggie bank!" People began to ask: "why earn money to pay for your home when you can make money just living in it?" With the government covering all losses, you'd have been a fool not to borrow.


Cont...

"Overdose" goes to air on 23rd August at 8.30pm on ABC1.

It is repeated on 24th August at 11.35pm. It can also be seen in the same week at 10.15pm Friday and 1.15pm Saturday on ABC News 24. Available on iView for two weeks only
 
interesting the segement about "buy that car/holiday/boat on your house" advertisements.

i recall the exact same ads in australia in around 2003 - just before the market dived and interest rates climbed - but haven't seen them since.

does that mean we were leading the world re the gfc, and combated it early?
 
You know which ads scare me now. The ‘from as little as $50 a week you can become a property millionaire’ ones, they’re every where on the radio. The whole give money to a guy in weekly instalments and wait to get rich just doesn’t compute in my head...
 
One factor that has kept Australia from the excess' of other countries is that we have comparatively higher interest rates and inflation targets.

Our inflation target is 2-3%. US is 1-2%. Europe is more like 1%.

Retail Interest rates here have usually been 2% or more higher than in the US.

Governments can resolve the debt issue. It's called defaulting. Plenty of countries have done it.

Its no longer the 19th century. No one can send in the navy to shell your port because you refuse to repay your bonds (although maybe that's why China is building up its Navy like crazy to enforce debt collection).
 
Equiteee maaaate

interesting the segement about "buy that car/holiday/boat on your house" advertisements.

Yeah I recalled those. The "Equity Maaate! " ads by "which bank"
i recall the exact same ads in australia in around 2003 - just before the market dived and interest rates climbed - but haven't seen them since.

does that mean we were leading the world re the gfc, and combated it early?

Not sure about that Lizzie. I think our lending system is just more conservative here.

Just as well we are less yipee kayay than the US. Non recourse loans used as a piggy bank when times were good turn pear shaped and, coupled with the NINJA toxic lending to people who needed to prove they had a pulse and could sign their name to qualify...........well, what else could result.

Thx for the heads up on the show Mr. Wing :)
 
Just as well we are less yipee kayay than the US. Non recourse loans used as a piggy bank when times were good turn pear shaped and, coupled with the NINJA toxic lending to people who needed to prove they had a pulse and could sign their name to qualify...........well, what else could result.

Ninja loan, non recourse loan......both a result of citizens outsourcing credit regulation to govt.

I am thinking more and more non recourse loans are a good check against asset bubbles if mortgages remain held by source of credit, rather than disguised and flicked to some unsuspecting innocent reliant on credit rating agencies.

Ninjas wouldn't have come about if govt sensibly regulated credit money supply.

the gubmint's to blame.... :)
 
I missed it but I'll try to watch it tomorrow nite.
Mrs BV says that SSF debt addicts like me should be forced to watch it. :confused:
 
Very interesting. I hadn't realised the extent that these govt stimulus packages all around the world are causing the bubbles.

It's making me re-think on whether I want to get back into property right now.
 
One factor that has kept Australia from the excess' of other countries is that we have comparatively higher interest rates and inflation targets.

Our inflation target is 2-3%. US is 1-2%. Europe is more like 1%.

Retail Interest rates here have usually been 2% or more higher than in the US.

Governments can resolve the debt issue. It's called defaulting. Plenty of countries have done it.

Its no longer the 19th century. No one can send in the navy to shell your port because you refuse to repay your bonds (although maybe that's why China is building up its Navy like crazy to enforce debt collection).

The main thing kept australia from living beyond his mean is the big resource this country is full of. While resource price are high Australia can afford bubbles and high living standard.
Default is not often a good solution. Country like UK don't have net external debt so a government default will just punish mainly the UK citizens that have been saving and the pensioners, same thing for Euorope, US and Japan. Only some small country will benefit from defaulting, that would Include Greece, Portugal and Spain, Nz as well will be well off from a default.
 
so in the event of a double dip recession or depression, what impact does that have on asset prices? I assume stock market and property prices crash, bonds prices drop for fear of default, food prices increase, gold/silver prices increase?

Anyone help me to understand this please?

OSS
 
I watched it.
They basically talked about US government debt and western government bailouts so its nothing new.

I could not see why an Australian home buyer or investor should be worried.
If there was a message there for us, it would be stop government's spending.
Our Gov debt as a % of the GDP is small but this doesn't mean that we should waste billions because eventually they'll have to be paid back.

The worry for Australians are our high interest rates and the cost involved but the risk to lenders is minimal. Australia along with a handfull other countries are the only remaining safe heavens in the world and our decent returns are making Australia a very attractive place to invest in.

The world is not a happy place though and I feel that there is more pain to come
 
so in the event of a double dip recession or depression, what impact does that have on asset prices? I assume stock market and property prices crash, bonds prices drop for fear of default, food prices increase, gold/silver prices increase?

OSS
Another world recession will have very little impact on our property prices because our interest rates will fall so loans will be more affordable than before and we already have a housing shortage so our properties will be fully occupied.

Debt does worry me so I wouldn't over-extend right now with the hope that property prices will double in 1 year because it isn't going to happen.

Property prices in many suburbs have already risen but IMO we aren't in a bubble. I've just returned from a trip in Europe and their home prices on comparable properties aren't much different to ours. I hope this helps.
 
so in the event of a double dip recession or depression, what impact does that have on asset prices? I assume stock market and property prices crash, bonds prices drop for fear of default, food prices increase, gold/silver prices increase?

Anyone help me to understand this please?

OSS

Bond prices go up cos people flee assets reliant on leverage like stocks and property. Why? cos people lose jobs and credit markets tighten to manage risk. Bonds are basically risk free because govts can print as much money as they want and always pay it back. The only check on this is the bond market, which doesn't buy bonds from govts that print excessive dollars.

Don't confuse bond prices with bond yields. When bonds go up, yields come down. And they are the lowest they've been since the depths of GFC.

z



How far house prices drop depends on unemployment and global credit tightening. Even if the RBA drops the cash rate as they did during GFC, banks won't necessarily loosen credit supply. The hole Australia has dug itself is that we have bid house prices up to a level where we can't fund them via Australian productivity. We are 25% reliant on foreign credit to keep our houses priced at current levels. A second global recession is likely to effect Australia more deeply, and even if foreigners take up another Aussie govt guarantee on debt, our banks are less likely to pass on the funds as freely as last time.


Here's tonight's Bloomberg headline underscoring the US economic stimulus is a spent force.

"Sales of U.S. previously owned homes plunged 27 percent in July, twice as much as forecast, evidence foreclosures and limited job growth are depressing the market."



The ECRI is arguably the most respected US leading weekly economic index. A good interpretation of its recent history is here. I accept its plunge to -10 is a strong indication the US is heading into recession.

If you want to read more, google 'deflation versus inflation'. It is topical amongst the world's economists currently and will address your concerns.
 
OSS
Another world recession will have very little impact on our property prices because our interest rates will fall so loans will be more affordable than before .


You're assuming here that demand for our commodities holds up if GFC 2 happens like it did last time? It may well happen that GFC 2 hits China too, or perhaps they won't have the money to prop everything up this time.

Australia without commodity exports is just a giant consumer nation and service centre. If commodity prices crash, our house prices will follow everyone else.


See ya's.
 
so in the event of a double dip recession or depression, what impact does that have on asset prices? I assume stock market and property prices crash, bonds prices drop for fear of default, food prices increase, gold/silver prices increase?

Anyone help me to understand this please?

OSS

you can't have a clear answer, depend also how government and central banks react, it also depend how money flow will be effected.
On very important factor that you never hear is about australia influx of money. Looking at following chart I thought during the GFC it would reverse (for first time ever probably). To me clerly can't be expected to have positive money influx forever and the time it reverse will be during a big recession. If the influx of money will reverse will be big trouble for australia.
aus private capital flow.gif
 
you can't have a clear answer, depend also how government and central banks react, it also depend how money flow will be effected.

governments can jump up and down all they like, but they're all broke now, so they can't 'react', let alone "act".

stupid dumbsheets.

i think the upcoming GFC is going to hurt a lot.
 
governments can jump up and down all they like, but they're all broke now, so they can't 'react', let alone "act".

stupid dumbsheets.

i think the upcoming GFC is going to hurt a lot.

THere are a lot of things government can do then spending money, for example a change of tax system can be of great incentive to export and great drop in consumption (like rising gst and drop income/business tax), also one of the thing that I was surprise didn't emerge in the GFC was trade barriers and trade protection, most western countries will benefit from trade restriction comparing to emerging countries. Because of currency manipulation and currency wars governments changes on trade can be imposed, this not just between china and other countries but also between major western countries.
Finally what is the limit of government spending? none knows, if a private can borrow 10 times his yearly income what makes think 1 time the yearly gdp is the max a western country can borrow? Also central banks are somewhat controlled by government and indirectly government control the amount of money and interest rates set in the economy.
 
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