Pascoe: Blow the housing bubble down
- Thread starter Fester
- Start date
Originally posted by Aceyducey
How many other forumites are hoping for a crash but not expecting it to happen, like me
A crash would sure help to achieve our goals.
We have several highish valued slightly NG properties at present and being able to get our hands on 6-8 well located PG property's to hold for the next boom would be the icing on the IP cake.
How likely a crash is to occur though is anybodys guess. l think a slowdown is more likely but maybe thats more wishful thinking than anything.
When the market crashes, it is much harder to get a loan approved, and the "highish valued" properties may not be able to get its true market vaule by the bank's valuation as well.
For myself, I wish that if I can be trouble free, I am very lucky in such a tough time.
If lucky enough, I will use my own cash income to buy new properties if it is not dried up by higher interest rate. Expecting refinancing existing ones to buy more is not in my strategies at that stage.
What an incredibly myopic view.
The reserve want to slow it (the housing market) down , not stamp it out. Any move will be small and steady.
LL
The reserve want to slow it (the housing market) down , not stamp it out. Any move will be small and steady.
LL
I'm not hoping for it but wouldnt be surprised to see it (please note that different from predicting it)
The ramifications of a crash in Australia at the moment could be long and far reaching and affect more than the property market.
Just have a look at how our economy has chugged along nicely as a result of the increased paper wealth of our inhabitants. Then try and figure out what would sustain this if there were a property market crash.
Our economy NEEDS the values of our properties to stay right where they are.
LB
The ramifications of a crash in Australia at the moment could be long and far reaching and affect more than the property market.
Just have a look at how our economy has chugged along nicely as a result of the increased paper wealth of our inhabitants. Then try and figure out what would sustain this if there were a property market crash.
Our economy NEEDS the values of our properties to stay right where they are.
LB
LB,
I think you've got it.
Every property owner is a voter ...and .....golly gee.....there's an election next year ! Falling/crashing property prices are what we don't want !!
...and then there's the little problem of the Australian dollar which has increased from ~55 to ~70 US cents in the past year....partly on the back of the cash rate differential with the US ... Anybody for "exports" with that ?? ...... And then there's the US who has cash rates at 1% ( as opposed to our at 4.75% ) and the US has clearly signalled that it is not increasing cash rates any time soon .
Stay tuned.
It isn't that simple folks.
LL
I think you've got it.
Every property owner is a voter ...and .....golly gee.....there's an election next year ! Falling/crashing property prices are what we don't want !!
...and then there's the little problem of the Australian dollar which has increased from ~55 to ~70 US cents in the past year....partly on the back of the cash rate differential with the US ... Anybody for "exports" with that ?? ...... And then there's the US who has cash rates at 1% ( as opposed to our at 4.75% ) and the US has clearly signalled that it is not increasing cash rates any time soon .
Stay tuned.
It isn't that simple folks.
LL
Let us all also bear in mind that the US is NOT our sole trading partner by any means & a free trade agreement does interesting things to offset $AU upward movements. There are many tariffs at more than 40%.
And don't neglect that a global economic upturn would also lift Australia's economy and help offset domestic pressure on the housing sector.
Also don't forget the massive ROI opportunity for US investors of being able to pour money into Australia,with a higher interest rates & lower dollar (not to mention Europeans or Japanese for that matter)...
There is an enormous opportunity for Australia right now, but it seems a lot of people are focused on the micro and not looking at the macro.
Cheers,
Aceyducey
And don't neglect that a global economic upturn would also lift Australia's economy and help offset domestic pressure on the housing sector.
Also don't forget the massive ROI opportunity for US investors of being able to pour money into Australia,with a higher interest rates & lower dollar (not to mention Europeans or Japanese for that matter)...
There is an enormous opportunity for Australia right now, but it seems a lot of people are focused on the micro and not looking at the macro.
Cheers,
Aceyducey
