Petrol to go over & stay over a dollar

[keithj]

Having spoken to him, no that's not how he does business Remember he's pitching his presentations to knowledgeable people, not naive investors.

So you're saying he has managed US$6B of IPOs and NOT made money out of them ?

And I think you'd find few people today who still reckon that oil & gas from the ground are not in limited supply!

I agree with you.

In any case, the views he's putting forward are actually rather optimistic compared to some of the figures I've seen out of the UK & US governments amongst others. As one example, China's major field (20% of their present consumption) is declining production at 5% per annum...and their demand growth over the next 20 years is vastly underpredicted if you look at a comparison with South Korea's growth since the 50s. The modelling is quite ugly!

Keith, what sort of research have you done into the prospects for oil & gas globally?

BTW: Yes I have done a great deal of research into the energy market - both oil & gas and the 'cleaner' forms - solar, water, wind, thermal, renewable organics, etc.

My original post suggested that there may be a vested interest in the presentation because of organisation funding the research. That was the point I was making. I looked at the whole of the presentation from the link you pasted. It wasn't clear either from your post, the page pointed to by the link or until the very last slide of the presentation who was doing the presenting. To anyone who didn't read up to the last page this would not have been clear the they are Investment Bankers to the Energy Industry.

I do have a rather large sum invested in the energy game right now. I've done my due diligence on its future prospects and see considerable upside for those investing in the right areas.

I knew there was a vested interest somewhere.

And since we're in the coffe lounge.....

A statistician in the late 1800's had seriously predicted that, at the 'current' rate of expansion and increase of population, horse manure would cover every street in London from wall to wall, even covering windows, within fifty years.

Then Henry Ford came along. .....which is causing the current problems. Maybe something else will come from left field before the oil runs out....but I'll keep my fingers crossed for your 'rather large sum' anyway....

KJ

 

[keithj]

While you are making a very valid point what one always has to take into consideration about information (WIIFM for the provider) I tend to agree rather with the articles and believe that we have a more serious energy issue than is widely publicised / led to believe.

I agree on both your points -
- that fossil fuels will not be economically viable sometime
- the source of information is as important as the information itself

KJ

 

[jym]

Hi Guys

Some interesting facts about the world's oil supplies stated on this site although it is an advertisement for oil stocks and shares.

http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/OST/collapse622/

Regards

 

[Sunfish]

Agora is highly commercial. I read their newsletters but not the info-mercials.

T

 

[Sunfish]

I knew there was a vested interest somewhere.


KJ

That's a bit below the belt. Are you suggesting that everyone with property has a vested interest and should not post on SS?

T

 

[keithj]

That's a bit below the belt.

Hence the smiley.

Are you suggesting that everyone with property has a vested interest and should not post on SS?

Not at all. As I mentioned in my reply to Tibor -

the source of information is as important as the information itself

Besides, we all have a vested interest in property.

KJ

 

[keithj]

Upside of running out of oil

But look at the upside of running out of oil at New Scientist

Oil and gas will run out too fast for doomsday global warming scenarios to materialise, according to a controversial analysis presented this week at the University of Uppsala in Sweden. The authors warn that all the fuel will be burnt before there is enough carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to realise predictions of melting ice caps and searing temperatures.

KJ

 

[Sunfish]

" Oil and gas will run out too fast for doomsday global warming scenarios to materialise, according to a controversial analysis presented this week at the University of Uppsala in Sweden. The authors warn that all the fuel will be burnt before there is enough carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to realise predictions of melting ice caps and searing temperatures."

I feel better now!

 

[Aceyducey]

Shell boss says "we're all going to die!!!"

Shell boss 'fears for the planet'

The head of one of the world's biggest oil giants has said unless carbon dioxide emissions are dealt with he sees "very little hope for the world".

In a frank interview, Ron Oxburgh told the Guardian newspaper that climate change made him "very worried for the planet".

He said a technology to trap harmful emissions, blamed by many scientists for climate change, must be developed.

But he said he feared "the timescale might be impossible".

"No one can be comfortable at the prospect of continuing to pump out the amounts of carbon dioxide that we are at present," said the Shell boss.

"People are going to go on allowing this atmospheric carbon dioxide to build up, with consequences that we really can't predict, but are probably not good."

SOURCE: BBC News, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/3814607.stm


Of course remember his vested interest....if everyone died we'd all eventually turn into oil thus allowing Shell to make more profits

Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[Aceyducey]

BTW - this is an article that anyone interested in energy should read.

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/062104_berlin_peak.html

It also puts to bed that bias debate raised by Keithj

Note that the article was brought to my attention by Thommo (sorry I forgot to acknowledge this earlier Thommo - I posted in haste).

Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[jym]

Hi Guys

What a rather frightening future we can look forward to if what is talked about in Aceyducey's link comes to pass.

Regards

 

[Sunfish]

Hi Guys

What a rather frightening future we can look forward to if what is talked about in Aceyducey's link comes to pass.

Regards

It is scarry. It is beyond my comprehension just how much things will change.

It is important to differentiate between the end of "cheap" oil and the end of oil "outright". The latter wont happen but when the former does (the debate is only about when) then discresionary use will obviously be the first to go and I think of Jumbo Jet tourism in that light. At the same time we will be downsizing our cars and driving them less; going to hybrids. As the screws tighten though, how will agriculture handle it? Without diesel, broad acre farming can't happen, or at least, not as economically. Free-run eggs will be easy to find, wheat harder. Will the cities starve and values plummet? Will the market garden areas which have become housing estates, revert back with greater values than ever?

The build-up to change has been slower than I thought but change will come and there will be a big payday for those who place the right bets.

Good punting ..... Thommo

 

[Harpic]

Acey

Shell boss says "we're all going to die!!!"

I guess he may be right on that one, sooner or hopefully later.

Shell were lambasted in a BBC investigative programme last night for misuse of the Nigerian military to further their aims there (only saw the final 2 minutes as too busy watching England soccer crash & burn yet again) - wondering how that will effect their rocky share price?

KeithJ

A statistician in the late 1800's had seriously predicted that, at the 'current' rate of expansion and increase of population, horse manure would cover every street in London from wall to wall, even covering windows, within fifty years

My great aunt died a couple of years back, on the day after her 100th birthday - she would never visit London - "much too filthy" - the last time she visited (early 1900s) the streets were full of horse manure.

harpic

 

[Bill.L]

It is scarry. It is beyond my comprehension just how much things will change.

It is important to differentiate between the end of "cheap" oil and the end of oil "outright". The latter wont happen but when the former does (the debate is only about when) then discresionary use will obviously be the first to go and I think of Jumbo Jet tourism in that light. At the same time we will be downsizing our cars and driving them less; going to hybrids. As the screws tighten though, how will agriculture handle it? Without diesel, broad acre farming can't happen, or at least, not as economically. Free-run eggs will be easy to find, wheat harder. Will the cities starve and values plummet? Will the market garden areas which have become housing estates, revert back with greater values than ever?

The build-up to change has been slower than I thought but change will come and there will be a big payday for those who place the right bets.

Good punting ..... Thommo

Hi all,
Thommo, Where have you placed your bets??

bye

 

[Sunfish]

Hi all,
Thommo, Where have you placed your bets??

bye

Sssssh! This is a property forum. If I told you they'd shoot me!

Thommo

 

[Ecogirl]

i can't believe it

I have a work car and I've kept my private car as well for anonymity around town (can be handy sometimes ). Long story short - I haven't fueled up my private car in 6 wks and nearly fell over when I looked at the price of petrol $1.06/L yesterday.

Apparently it has been this high for a while - how do ppl manage on low incomes getting to work etc??

In my work car I have a fuel card and fuel up every 2 dys - imagine what the cost of diesel is costing the company.....it's not like the fuel is coming from the rest of aust - it comes direct to our ports from OS (that's what they tell me) - so what's the deal....why do we have to pay more than everyone else. The cost of living in Darwin is higher but this is pathetic.

End of rant
Ecogirl

 

[Tibor]

I just got this via my daily email "shot"

Crude awakening indeed to possible oil conflicts

http://www.timesunion.com/AspStorie...36&category=OPINION&BCCode=&newsdate=7/4/2004

Interesting story and shows how much nations are already trying to place themselves to a winning position in the short term.

I have to say still do not quite understand if leaders realise that the issue is so serious, why they do not do something about an alternative source, big time. That amount of money we are talking about here (flying billions) should go very far to research, develop, commercialise and implement viable alternative energy sources, so reliance on current ones would diminish, hence the issue would not be one.

Am I missing something here?

 

[Aceyducey]

I have to say still do not quite understand if leaders realise that the issue is so serious, why they do not do something about an alternative source, big time. That amount of money we are talking about here (flying billions) should go very far to research, develop, commercialise and implement viable alternative energy sources, so reliance on current ones would diminish, hence the issue would not be one.

Am I missing something here?

Yes - the short-sightedness of western governments with a 3-4 year outlook....and the secrecy of many others that do not want it known to potential enemies, including their own people, that they might be weaker (due to shortages of the gunk that makes tanks & jet aircraft work) than they appear.

Remember also that information takes a long time to filter upwards and lead to action......it took 40 years for governments internationally to act on the information that CFCs were bad and how long has it taken Australian governments to recognise that Australia has limited water?

Individuals can act much faster

Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[jym]

Hi Guys

Has anyone looked at this site:
http://www.rense.com/general54/ssust.htm

Regards

 

[Aceyducey]

Yeah this guy & his views have popped up before.

There's been a long debate over whether oil is produced by organic means or not....

However the assertion that oil fields are renewing themselves is totally false. The majority of the world's large fields are in decline & there's been no evidence to suggest rising oil quantities. At the same time there have been 'double-peaks' in production on occasion due to improving extraction mechanisms, sideways drilling & extensions to wells to deeper layers....but sadly not due to more oil being spontaneously forming inside the earth.

The concept of non-organic oil was disproved in the 70s, but keeps popping up as an urban myth - even from supposedly expert people from time to time.

Cheers,

Aceyducey