price in your target property market?
- Thread starter McKlusky
- Start date
Caveat of the written word
G'day XbenX,
I call it the "caveat of the written word". Words are ciphers on paper - can often be ambiguous, mis-interpreted, rhetorical, unchanging, unemotional, etc.
When we're face to face, we have the benefit of - body language, tone of voice, visual stimulus, re-iteration (where one doesn't quite understand the other..), and common courtesy. We're THERE, facing each other - makes a huge difference, and limits the chance of being misunderstood.
And a nice glass of red, or a beer, can help too
Regards,
PS and I voted -0 to 10%.....
G'day XbenX,
Right on, Xbenx !!
I call it the "caveat of the written word". Words are ciphers on paper - can often be ambiguous, mis-interpreted, rhetorical, unchanging, unemotional, etc.
When we're face to face, we have the benefit of - body language, tone of voice, visual stimulus, re-iteration (where one doesn't quite understand the other..), and common courtesy. We're THERE, facing each other - makes a huge difference, and limits the chance of being misunderstood.
And a nice glass of red, or a beer, can help too
Regards,
PS and I voted -0 to 10%.....
Price Changes
Last September I sold my PPOR in Canterbury, NSW.
The house was 3 br, weatherboard/fibro house & I got at auction over $550,000.
I am quite sure if I was trying to sell my home today I would be lucky to get $500,000. for it.
My reasoning;
Shushar
Last September I sold my PPOR in Canterbury, NSW.
The house was 3 br, weatherboard/fibro house & I got at auction over $550,000.
I am quite sure if I was trying to sell my home today I would be lucky to get $500,000. for it.
My reasoning;
- The overall cooling-off in the Sydney market
- The house was targeted at first-home buyers. First home buyers now get concessions on stamp duty for properties up to $500,000.
- Mr Egan's new taxes to discourage NSW property investors
Shushar
I live on the coast in Adelaide and have noticed that there appeared to be a peak late last year and prices have been relatively stable since then. What seems to be happening though is that some homes and townhouses are taking longer to sell. My next door neighbours have had their house on the market since early in March, they are now onto their second agent and have not even had a serious offer (and I don't think it's because of their neighbours ).
Two other properties that are on the esplanade which would have sold in a few weeks before Christmas are still on the market after 8 weeks or so. This may be a seasonal variation, I'm not sure. None of the three vendors have yet reduced their price, in fact in the first few weeks of my neighbour's house being for sale it went from "$500K + " to "mid $500K". It is now at $550K with the second agent. They have talked to me at length about the issues they had with the first agent, but have not even considered that the price may be an issue.
WaySolid, I guess I am echoing your post here.
Regards,
ChrisOs.
).Two other properties that are on the esplanade which would have sold in a few weeks before Christmas are still on the market after 8 weeks or so. This may be a seasonal variation, I'm not sure. None of the three vendors have yet reduced their price, in fact in the first few weeks of my neighbour's house being for sale it went from "$500K + " to "mid $500K". It is now at $550K with the second agent. They have talked to me at length about the issues they had with the first agent, but have not even considered that the price may be an issue.
WaySolid, I guess I am echoing your post here.
Regards,
ChrisOs.
ChrisOs said:I live on the coast in Adelaide and have noticed that there appeared to be a peak late last year and prices have been relatively stable since then. What seems to be happening though is that some homes and townhouses are taking longer to sell. My next door neighbours have had their house on the market since early in March, they are now onto their second agent and have not even had a serious offer (and I don't think it's because of their neighbours
Two other properties that are on the esplanade which would have sold in a few weeks before Christmas are still on the market after 8 weeks or so. This may be a seasonal variation, I'm not sure. None of the three vendors have yet reduced their price, in fact in the first few weeks of my neighbour's house being for sale it went from "$500K + " to "mid $500K". It is now at $550K with the second agent. They have talked to me at length about the issues they had with the first agent, but have not even considered that the price may be an issue.
WaySolid, I guess I am echoing your post here.
Regards,
ChrisOs.
Chris,
There is only one reason a property wont sell and thats because its overpriced for the current market. And those 4 respondents who polled their target market has risen since late last year,can you tell the rest of the forum where they are
Townsville (I'm not scrouge and don't check daily though)McKlusky said:Chris,
There is only one reason a property wont sell and thats because its overpriced for the current market. And those 4 respondents who polled their target market has risen since late last year,can you tell the rest of the forum where they are
Remember that it is a regional and goto; http://jobs.careerone.com.au/search..."&VAR_DISPLAY=20&Show_Details=1&Ref=Decideint
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McKlusky said:Chris,
There is only one reason a property wont sell and thats because its overpriced for the current market. And those 4 respondents who polled their target market has risen since late last year,can you tell the rest of the forum where they are
Didn't answer poll as some places I buy have gone down , but most places in N'th Qland are still going up , certainly Rocky and Townsville where I have last bought have, and looking at the forum , so has cairns. BUT these places were the last places to start moving.
See Change
This is only from the way i look at the real estate market in brisbane,
in the last 8 weeks i have sold 2 properties on the northside of brisbane
part of my fathers estate,i went for 20% on the poll,and imho i think thats
in the price area that i sold the properties for, one the contract fell over 3 times signed a new contract last week on that property that makes 4 contracts on that property alone,real estate sales people must work for there money these days i have sold all those properties by private means.in the areas that we invest in imho i would say that in my eyes last october was the high peak,and as of today some have gone backwards maybe 10 to 12%,but that only normal after so much overvalued properties being sold,anyway that only the way i see the market, and i do think investors attitude
are starting to change with real estate the horizon and crosscurrents are eventually
uncertain..
Good luck
willair
in the last 8 weeks i have sold 2 properties on the northside of brisbane
part of my fathers estate,i went for 20% on the poll,and imho i think thats
in the price area that i sold the properties for, one the contract fell over 3 times signed a new contract last week on that property that makes 4 contracts on that property alone,real estate sales people must work for there money these days i have sold all those properties by private means.in the areas that we invest in imho i would say that in my eyes last october was the high peak,and as of today some have gone backwards maybe 10 to 12%,but that only normal after so much overvalued properties being sold,anyway that only the way i see the market, and i do think investors attitude
are starting to change with real estate the horizon and crosscurrents are eventually
uncertain..
Good luck
willair
Alice Springs is one of the markets that continued to grow after November last year by about 10%. It has levelled out now. An average 3 bed will sell at about $230K return gross 6%, Two bed flat $130K return of 7% and a 1 bed flat $85K return of 9%. Note I wrote average. The market goes from very average to plush. Just to add the towns vacant rate is approx 4%. Well priced rentals will go off within a few days if asking these returns.
Corey.
Corey.
I actually agreed with Acey's original reply...all except the bit questioning the investment credentials.
I personally buy a property, when I spot one that needs to be bought, regardless of the state of the market.
BTW how do you determine that the market has dropped by 'x' or more percent ?
Unless you are comparing the sales history on the same property and note a decrease in the latest selling price, where does this "decrease" in market price come from ??
KPH
I personally buy a property, when I spot one that needs to be bought, regardless of the state of the market.
BTW how do you determine that the market has dropped by 'x' or more percent ?
Unless you are comparing the sales history on the same property and note a decrease in the latest selling price, where does this "decrease" in market price come from ??
KPH
i think most people understand it's not a quantative/statistical survey result yet merely a gut feel after watching a given market for years on end and simply observing and commenting on current trends as they see it for their target market, why does it have to be more precise/scientific, the original question doesnt call for it.
forrestd said:
This is absolutley correct. Property pricing is not an exact science. You need to have a feel for the market you are concentrating on.
kph, you say you buy a property regardless of the state of the market. Thats crazy as all investors know there are good times and bad times to buy property. At the moment there is low yields and high prices (still), experienced investors know this and stay out of the market, hence the near disapearance of investors in todays market.
Why would you buy a properrty in this market when you can buy one with a much better deal in a couple of years or could have a few years ago.
Dont believe that 'time in the market' is more important than timing the market. Its not better, just a different way of investing in property and the for my style of investing, a much inferior way.
As to the poll. It has panned out pretty predictably. Except for the high percentage of responses stating that property is still rising in price.
I find it wierd that most of the country is stable or falling in price but a few areas are still rising. It could be that some respondents misinterpret their markets or dont have that gut feel mentioned above. Its one thing to say prices are rising but the proof of the pudding is are the properties selling (and quickly)? in this rising market. If they are not then prices arent rising. See the post from ChrisOS for evidence of this.
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G'day McK,
HOW could that work (I hear you ask.. ) Well, how about this:-
1. Is the area you are buying in REALLY going to drop in the future? As a broad example, Brisbane has virtually never DROPPED after a boom in recent times (last 25 years). Sometimes it's flat (for years) but negative drops are minimal (with the exception of a few - i.e. not many - areas within the "Brisbane" area).
2. Are Interest rates NOT going to increase over the next two years? Why not buy now, (in an area like 1. above) and fix the current interest rates. Wouldn't kph (or anyone else) be better off that way?
But, of course, I am also assuming here in suggesting that Interest rates WILL rise.....
3. As investors have left the market (as you say), won't it affect vacancy rates (and therefore rents) to make your purchase at this time both easier to rent, and return more immediately?
4. If things really are as bad as you seem to think, who's to say that lenders aren't about to drastically tighten their lending requirements - or, in other words, who's to say you'll be able to buy in 2 years time (unless you've got lots of cash...)
I do agree that this may well NOT work in some (most??) areas today - it really is a matter of "knowing YOUR market". But, as with the sharemarket, even when a raging bear is growling, there are some stocks going up.
So, crazy?????? Hmmmm - maybe, maybe not !!!??? To me, it really depends who you are, and where you are....
Regards,
Les, with his devil's advocate hat on
Does that mean Jan Somers was crazy too when she did just that? If it worked for her, why not buy now?
HOW could that work (I hear you ask..
) Well, how about this:-To me there might be a couple of assumptions there ("...when you can buy one with a much better deal in a couple of years"):-
1. Is the area you are buying in REALLY going to drop in the future? As a broad example, Brisbane has virtually never DROPPED after a boom in recent times (last 25 years). Sometimes it's flat (for years) but negative drops are minimal (with the exception of a few - i.e. not many - areas within the "Brisbane" area).
2. Are Interest rates NOT going to increase over the next two years? Why not buy now, (in an area like 1. above) and fix the current interest rates. Wouldn't kph (or anyone else) be better off that way?
But, of course, I am also assuming here in suggesting that Interest rates WILL rise.....
3. As investors have left the market (as you say), won't it affect vacancy rates (and therefore rents) to make your purchase at this time both easier to rent, and return more immediately?
4. If things really are as bad as you seem to think, who's to say that lenders aren't about to drastically tighten their lending requirements - or, in other words, who's to say you'll be able to buy in 2 years time (unless you've got lots of cash...)
I do agree that this may well NOT work in some (most??) areas today - it really is a matter of "knowing YOUR market". But, as with the sharemarket, even when a raging bear is growling, there are some stocks going up.
So, crazy?????? Hmmmm - maybe, maybe not !!!??? To me, it really depends who you are, and where you are....
Fair enough, McK - if "timing" suits your style, then that's what you'll use. Good luck with it,
Regards,
Les, with his devil's advocate hat on
Could it be that some people are going by the median figures produced by organisations such as http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/snapshot/McKlusky said:
who have produced figures like this:
Median House Price for Postcode 4165
Feb-04 $329,000
Mar-04 $330,000
Apr-04 $339,500
May-04 $349,500
Jun-04 $354,875
To a lot of people this will indicate an upward trend, with a slight stalling in March.
One good reason, you can't buy a property in the past or in the future. The only time you can actually buy a property is in the present. The past is over, the future is a hope or fear (or a gamble).McKlusky said:
Another reason, if you're following a long-term buy & hold strategy, the precise portion of the cycle in which you buy a property tends to be averaged out over several cycles. And long term buy & hold isn't an inferior strategy, it's simply a different strategy that suits certain people better than shorter term buy & flips do.
A good comparison I find is looking at the effects of buying shares over a period longer than 20 years. If you buy at the peak vs the trough of prices, it actually makes little difference to your portfolio's value over these longer time periods.
Another good reason: the time value of money. $200K cash today, at 3% inflation, is worth $171K in 5 years, or $147K in 10 years..... at 6% inflation it's worth only $146K in 5 and $107K in 10 years.
If you buy a property that merely grows a few percent ahead of inflation over a 5-10 year period you're still getting ahead.
Best of all, of course, is if you can buy properties with future dollars in today's prices - that's the place of vendor finance
At the end of the day everyone chooses the strategy that they feel is best for them.
McKlusky I respect your right to pick the best strategy for you & I hope you equally respect others' choices to follow their own best strategy - even when to the rest of us it mightn't seem the best.
Cheers,
Aceyducey
