Professor Sepius nefas claims Property Burst this year!

Well the average Joe investment is what interests me because I'm looking at what's happenning to the market.

I know some of you have invested very well - so Skater or Bayview no need to cite me examples, as I don't need proof as I have no doubt you two are superior investors in Australia - but the average investment at the moment is not very good.

The original thread was why this place was going to crash like a silly bugger. But each to his own.

Dazz - if I wanted to build in tax it'd probably take me 10 minutes, but I probably shouldn't waste my time since the successful investors out there don't know what an IRR is anyway
 
Skater, perhaps if you prefer I could interest you in this lovely brick wall to bang your head against instead. ;) :D

brickwall.jpg

That's a great suggestion. I highly recommend you do it skater.
 
Analysing and modelling is all very well, most economists and University professors and Lecturers do heaps of that stuff, and could probably run rings around you in that dept. Their models are able to take tax into account. None of them are wealthy, certainly none that I have ever met.

My lecturer in finance moved on to a hedge fund in the US. I think he became very wealthy, though I don't know if he's half as succesful as the investors you met.
 
Well the average Joe investment is what interests me because I'm looking at what's happenning to the market.

- but the average investment at the moment is not very good.

That's the point. My two examples are just two average investments, that any average Joe could pick up. Granted, they may well have paid a little more than I did, but even if they paid another $20k on top of my prices, they still well and truely outperform the examples you are throwing around.

My lecturer in finance moved on to a hedge fund in the US. I think he became very wealthy, though I don't know if he's half as succesful as the investors you met.

That explains everything, doesn't it. Another Uni interlectual who has all this "book learning" without any real life experience, relying on what his lecturer's views at the time are. Oh well.............. :rolleyes:
 
Well the average Joe investment is what interests me because I'm looking at what's happenning to the market.

It might interest you to know that I am just one of these average Joes you mention. I just do average stuff, and keep looking for an opportunity that will be right for me at the time. The state of the market is a factor, but not an impediment to me doing something.

You are looking at the market, whereas I look at the area and what's happening in it's vicinity.

No matter what the state of the market, there are markets withing markets, and opportunities within those.

But, as you said; you are wasting your time, and we are wasting out time with you.

I prefer to talk with others who are looking for an opportunity.
 
Rather than look at the numbers for what they are, this is what you come back with...? Plenty of people buy at these yields and lower and indeed most metropolitan auctions sell far below these yields. That's why the market is overvalued and not sustainable because the overwhelming majority of auctions (by value) yield even less than my simulation exercise.
Given that most people don't invest in property, and of those who do, most only ever own one and often sell it, this would explain why so few people do well out of property investing.

People who go on to own more than 5 IP's - which is around 2% of property investors - don't do this sort of investing with the numbers you keep trotting out.

Also please don't use a 2003 purchase price to calculate your yield based on current rent. Why don't you use something purchased in 1998 and tell me what it's yielding now while you're at it?
Absolutely I will mention 1993. The return I receive is always going to be based on what I put into an investment at time of purchase.

I have to look at what return I'm getting on the dollars I invested, not on what someone else would get if they invested in that same property today. I didn't buy it today.

If you look at my purchase yield, it was a shabby 8.4% by the way.

What I love about forums is that I never talk about what I own or what I'm doing, because there're always people out there (including on this forum) doing much better than me, much more than me. So if you're going to talk about a $220k property yielding 6.3% from which I have a lot to learn from, then with all due respect, maybe think again?

It may be yielding 6.3% at today's prices, but I wouldn't buy it at today's yields. As per above, I bought it at the yield of 8.4%.

That's allowing for 5% purchase costs on top of the purchase price of $105k, divided by the rent of $180p/w x 52 weeks.

By the way, I helped you calculate your current yield based on your $280 rent and $220k market value. Chuck on stamp duty it does around 6.3%. Just in case you didn't realise since I know you're all so attuned with manipulating numbers (ie 2010 rent / 2003 price)

If I buy a property today, the rental yield I will look at is based on that price. If it is no good, then why would I buy it?

Therefore, why would I look at today's rental yield based on today's purchase price, but bought in 2003?

Noone is going to buy any property today, but want to look back on what the rental yield was in 2003 to determine it's return.

So, the purchase figures (number crunching) will always be based on today's purchase price, and today's yield.

This is why, with every property I own I calculate what my return is now based on what I paid for it.

As anyone who owns Google shares bought in 1990 of their return on their investment today is cr@p.
 
And as you'd expect, as rates go up and your IRR comes down, my money in the term deposits yield more :D:D:D

So, you're a TD investor?

Is that all?

Haven't your various models taught you something else that will allow you to invest in other vehicles?

If you are getting around 6% or so currently, and you allow for 3% inflation and tax on the interest, what is the nett return on your money if you put in $10k on July 1, and pull it out a year later?

If you put in $10k in 2003, and put in no extra funds, but re-invested the returns each year until today, what would be your nett worth from that one $10k investment?

The reason I ask this is because with my $105k property bought in 2003, I used only borrowed funds to buy it, and have not put in any other cash.

Actually, in fact, I have - I try to reduce debt even though some recommend not to. The reason is because I could not keep investing more regularly on the wages I used to earn, and waiting for cap growth is not guaranteed, so the combo of the cap growth and the debt reduction allowed me to increase the equity position sooner and accelerate the ability to buy again.

Yes, this decreases the IRR, but assume I put no cash into it and the IRR is quite good - infinity I believe.

I don't think borrowed funds to whack in a TD would do a lot for me.
 
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Yea hmm... let's just give it a rest. You said it yourself, it's a waste of time. On to another topic, this one with you is over for me.

We're not even on the same page. Not sure if you realise... you keep talking historical.
 
Well the average Joe investment is what interests me because I'm looking at what's happenning to the market.

I know some of you have invested very well - so Skater or Bayview no need to cite me examples, as I don't need proof as I have no doubt you two are superior investors in Australia - but the average investment at the moment is not very good.

Here ya go mate, average investments doing well all over the place. Take your pick, throw a dart, do whatever, all good...

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=696844&postcount=72

Cheers,
Michael
 
We're not even on the same page. Not sure if you realise... you keep talking historical.

Interesting.

It has to always be historical as you cannot review an investment/s until after they are made.

I've given you both long term and short term results.

What more proof do you need?

But, if you wish to only see the red lights up and down the street, and ignore the green ones, then I feel sorry for you.

Maybe you should stick to TD's - Property Investing is not for you.
 
It has to always be historical as you cannot review an investment/s until after they are made.

I've given you both long term and short term results.

What more proof do you need?

But, if you wish to only see the red lights up and down the street, and ignore the green ones, then I feel sorry for you.

Maybe you should stick to TD's - Property Investing is not for you.

What I find even more interesting is that after complaining about your investment his rebuttal to you was that yours was a dated purchase, well, fair enough, so I gave him two current ones purchased this year. Now, I know that neither one of these purchases is going to set the world on fire, but the point was that they were "average". Something anyone earning an income could purchase.

After I pulled him up on the fact that he had studied finance at Uni and probably only had theoretical experience, rather than real life experience he claimed that I was being aggressive. :rolleyes: That was his answer. No come back! No admission that perhaps he had been mistaken. Nothing! Except of course to mention that your data is historical.

Now Micheal helped him out further with more examples. I'm wondering if this thread is now becoming too difficult.:p :D
 
Now Micheal helped him out further with more examples. I'm wondering if this thread is now becoming too difficult.:p :D

Nah... I love this stuff; maybe only too difficult for DB.

I can keep on annoying blokes like him until the cows come home, or until they go away. ;):D
 
You two are right. Your cited examples are far superior to what I've ever done with property but it's too embarrassing to ask for advice now. So how do I find such good investments? Do you have one to recommend me?
 
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You two are right. Your cited examples are far superior to what I've ever done with property but it's too embarrassing to ask for advice now. So how do I find such good investments? Do you have one to recommend me?

I haven't read what was said previously.

But you should never be embarrassed to ask questions, we ain't born with the knowledge to be good at something (investing or whatever). Just educate urself hard about what you want to achieve and it will come

Regards,

RH
 
You two are right. Your cited examples are far superior to what I've ever done with property but it's too embarrassing to ask for advice now. So how do I find such good investments? Do you have one to recommend me?

Don't be too embarrassed to ask for advice.
As has been stated; everyone has given examples of how it can and is being done, and they are not extra special or clever.

In my case; my expertise is not that great. All I've been clever at is going out and buying when I could.

As I've gone along I have learned to buy "better" in terms of the numbers and how they work for me.

I'm a cashflow investor, so yer low yield "blue chip" areas are places I never look at.

So there's a clue; look outside the box and don't follow the herd - most people in the cities can only see as far as their immediate area.
 
DB,

Nah, don't educate yourself, that takes too long. Just buy what you can when you can afford to buy it. Rinse and repeat.

It really is a very simple thing to do. Investing in property is not mensa. Sure, you can get all fancy and do commercial like Daz, or renos like Skater or splitter blocks, or DCA like Rixter or full blown unit block developments like HandyAndy or any other of many successful techniques. But at the end of the day, if you don't start you'll never improve your technique. Basic buy and hold is better than sideline observation.

I've figured out that investing is not 90% mindset, its 100% mindset. It will get tough, it will get difficult, there will be some textbook expert telling you the end of the property world is nigh. But that's the stuff that just inspires you to work harder. Those guys and their doom and gloom are not part of my world. They don't exist for me. In my world, property makes me money, lots of money and their theoretical debates are just an interesting sideline with no bearing on my outcomes.

The best investment property ever is the one you actually bought. Period. The rest is just forum and textbook self-pleasuring. Hey, that's fun too, I've engaged in a bit of that over the years, but am scaling back my habit a bit lately as I'm too busy actually making my family a fortune. I might post up a bit of an update soon, its all looking hunky dory.

And I take full 100% ownership of my recent successes too. I own my failures so I have the right to own my successes. Not this forum, not some super coach, not Jan, not Peter, not anybody else. Me, myself, I. I am the master of my own destiny and take full credit for what I've achieved. If you think that's arrogance, then maybe you don't have the right mettle to play in this game. Own your decisions and take action. The rest will take care of itself.

Cheers,
Michael
 
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