west oz 6019 post code
Professor Sepius nefas claims Property Burst this year!
- Thread starter tcocaro
- Start date
west oz 6019 post code
Your argument contradicts itself on one hand you say that $150 barrel is unsustainable but on the other hand you say your bullish long term? So which is it?
As you are aware there are cycles, no ecnomist, or industry expert would have been suggesting that petrol would rise non-stop in a straight line from $150 onwards.
I can however put my hand on my heart and say petrol will ALWAYS trend up and never down except under one scenario. A replacement for petrol is found that has quick uptake. Then the opposite will occur oversupply and prices will fall.
The reason is simple demand and supply. There is a limited and worse "finite" source of oil.. so basically prices will always trend up.
Property is in a similar boat but not as extreme i.e. there is no more land being produced than whats already available.
However ineffective policy in Australia and elsewhere in the world has made property a limited resource. Due to no large scale infrastructure, poor planning etc the supply of property has been severely restrained and hence pushes prices up. This situation will obviously change however given the required fix cannot be rolled out soon you will find property prices plateuo rather than collapse.
To compare oil with housing is just wrong there is no real correlation, look at the price spike in the 80s which is similar to that in 2008 you refer too. However the long term trend in undeniably UP, except for the early years but than can be explained by a LOT of supply and relatively small market (the west mainly).
To say price rises across the board in Australia is due to speculation is wrong. Just look at finance figures investment loans are down so whose speculating? let me guess foreigners??? That was the latest crazy idea being thrown around their impact would be negligiable at best.
Everything points to Demand & Supply a boring concept everything else just affects the fringes but isnt the underlying reason.
As you are aware there are cycles, no ecnomist, or industry expert would have been suggesting that petrol would rise non-stop in a straight line from $150 onwards.
I can however put my hand on my heart and say petrol will ALWAYS trend up and never down except under one scenario. A replacement for petrol is found that has quick uptake. Then the opposite will occur oversupply and prices will fall.
The reason is simple demand and supply. There is a limited and worse "finite" source of oil.. so basically prices will always trend up.
Property is in a similar boat but not as extreme i.e. there is no more land being produced than whats already available.
However ineffective policy in Australia and elsewhere in the world has made property a limited resource. Due to no large scale infrastructure, poor planning etc the supply of property has been severely restrained and hence pushes prices up. This situation will obviously change however given the required fix cannot be rolled out soon you will find property prices plateuo rather than collapse.
To compare oil with housing is just wrong there is no real correlation, look at the price spike in the 80s which is similar to that in 2008 you refer too. However the long term trend in undeniably UP, except for the early years but than can be explained by a LOT of supply and relatively small market (the west mainly).
To say price rises across the board in Australia is due to speculation is wrong. Just look at finance figures investment loans are down so whose speculating? let me guess foreigners??? That was the latest crazy idea being thrown around their impact would be negligiable at best.
Everything points to Demand & Supply a boring concept everything else just affects the fringes but isnt the underlying reason.
www.etcproperty.com.au/franklinresidences, (settlement January 09) the eye of the GFC storm (sold June 2009) for $Xm profit.
The only affect PIIGS will have is when i plan my trip to Spain next year it will be a cheap holiday. Oh and by the way feel free to look up the address on RPDATA to confirm my figures.
Enjoy your anxious wait to prove me wrong my care factor is 0 as I post on this forum to learn something and to share not to prove you right or wrong.
The only affect PIIGS will have is when i plan my trip to Spain next year it will be a cheap holiday. Oh and by the way feel free to look up the address on RPDATA to confirm my figures.
Enjoy your anxious wait to prove me wrong my care factor is 0 as I post on this forum to learn something and to share not to prove you right or wrong.
Last edited:
I would agree with most of what you are saying. More demand than supply and prices will rise. The problem at the moment is that we are not in a normal climate. We have a lot of speculation on property prices and the increased demand is being caused by cheap credit rather than the need for housing.
According to the ABS there are almost 10 million empty bedrooms around Australia. Sure, the owners want it that way, but this is a phenomenon of a cheap and easy credit society.
Credit tightens, interest rates go up, and you will see some of the demand that you are currently seeing moving across to these empty rooms. People will still be selling, so what you will get is more supply than demand and thats when prices fall. It happens every time at the turn of a credit cycle, particularly a booming one like we have just had.
Regarding your first paragraph, you have confused long term trends with the short term exuberant spikes that occur from time to time. Oil shot up too far too fast a couple of years back.
retired not worked at all since 2002 i'm 42 .. care factor 0 /look at the average price daglish w.a 6008 . owned there outright as well as the scarb resi the same . up 60% on my bullion investments since 2008 .
you should read about the piigs situation and you will find it will effect you a lot more than you think
was in fact offering my thoughts as a warning to those going inm blind . as they media tells them it is .. but the media says that because lobbyists and the real estate groups with vested interests pay then to say it
gold!!!! i use this quote a lot so i recognised it straight away.
"nunquam in nuto"
funny stuff though.
"nunquam in nuto"
funny stuff though.
well stocks down 2+% this morn gold up 1% so far
one of the effects of piigs
say we have another big down in stocks,as i expect this to continue . what is the effect going to be on property ??
one of the effects of piigs
say we have another big down in stocks,as i expect this to continue . what is the effect going to be on property ??
Interesting. after house prices crashed up to 40% and banks stopped being banks is it any wonder that demand for dev sites fell thru the floor? Your timing was beautiful!
ty i have a friend i discuss things with in the usa .as very important to follow whats going on overseas has more impact here than others realise .
i spend 8 + hours everyday researching markets of various types
stocks , bullion ,housing etc
i did a quick clean up paved back courtyard threw a few plants in ,2 weeks sold first day at asking price . told the agent i thought it was all going down and showed him an ounce of gold .
am i the only one here that finds what he writes complete jibberish? you trade in gold bullion? so unless your trading options over them how much money do you actually make? i find it strange someone says i actually trade in "BULLION" here is an "ounce"?
like me saying i trade pork bellies here is my pig..
An ounce of gold is approx 1200 US an ounce fluctuated about $20 this month? approx? so lets see thats a profit of $20 bucks profit $20 an ounce? for a 100k investment you make a massive $2000 profit for a $1m investment you make $20k? profit? Not taking into account buying selling fees? or the cost of money you invest...
Hmmm this is the reason why i have rarely met someone that actually trades "bullion" aside from governments or your on some kind of forbes list.
If you trade options over the price of gold then thats another thing but you are very flippant in how you describe your investments it hints of "look at how good I am" rather than providing any usefull advice or commentry.
You go from bullion investing to fixing a deck out back of the house and selling it at asking? So what? what was the ROI on that? doubt very much it came anywhere near 20%.
Not sure what your trying to acheive in talking to a mate about whats happening in the USA, unless your mate is bernake i suggest you stick to reading reports coming out of the USA it will be better... and just humor me how does talking to your mate help with your "deck conversion" strategy.
Mate i am not trying to be insulting but when i hear these comments and I actually do invest in property in a large scale and have previously invested in stocks i find your comments bizzar to say the least.
If you are going to reply with more dribble please dont, atleast do me the courtesy of reading over your post before quickly clicking SUBMIT as half of what you say makes little to no sense.
like me saying i trade pork bellies here is my pig..
An ounce of gold is approx 1200 US an ounce fluctuated about $20 this month? approx? so lets see thats a profit of $20 bucks profit $20 an ounce? for a 100k investment you make a massive $2000 profit for a $1m investment you make $20k? profit? Not taking into account buying selling fees? or the cost of money you invest...
Hmmm this is the reason why i have rarely met someone that actually trades "bullion" aside from governments or your on some kind of forbes list.
If you trade options over the price of gold then thats another thing but you are very flippant in how you describe your investments it hints of "look at how good I am" rather than providing any usefull advice or commentry.
You go from bullion investing to fixing a deck out back of the house and selling it at asking? So what? what was the ROI on that? doubt very much it came anywhere near 20%.
Not sure what your trying to acheive in talking to a mate about whats happening in the USA, unless your mate is bernake i suggest you stick to reading reports coming out of the USA it will be better... and just humor me how does talking to your mate help with your "deck conversion" strategy.
Mate i am not trying to be insulting but when i hear these comments and I actually do invest in property in a large scale and have previously invested in stocks i find your comments bizzar to say the least.
If you are going to reply with more dribble please dont, atleast do me the courtesy of reading over your post before quickly clicking SUBMIT as half of what you say makes little to no sense.
ty i have a friend i discuss things with in the usa .as very important to follow whats going on overseas has more impact here than others realise .
i spend 8 + hours everyday researching markets of various types
stocks , bullion ,housing etc
i did a quick clean up paved back courtyard threw a few plants in ,2 weeks sold first day at asking price . told the agent i thought it was all going down and showed him an ounce of gold .
lets make a deal if stocks go up tommorow and gold goes down does that means the bay of piigs crisis is now over?
your analysis is childish... it serves no one any purpose... i will stop contributing to this thread as its been reduced to a jibberish match and well and trully left the the original reason for the post.
Have you ever seen a smart man screaming at a moron? to a third person they both look like morons...
your analysis is childish... it serves no one any purpose... i will stop contributing to this thread as its been reduced to a jibberish match and well and trully left the the original reason for the post.
Have you ever seen a smart man screaming at a moron? to a third person they both look like morons...
well the news agrees with me now on the piigs
ounce of gold pmsl
in australian $ gold is up $150 an ounce in 30 days
silver has doubled in a year and half
back to the piigs
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...lian-sharemarket/story-e6frg8zx-1225867936990
He said the euro-zone debt crisis had created a similar market reaction to the peak of the financial crisis in 2008.
Merrill Lynch, meanwhile, has highlighted the nation's vulnerability to external problems.
"Australia is exposed . . . in the event of another crisis in global debt markets, whether it be a recognition of Europe or another source," it said. "If Australian banks run into problems with the cost and availability of credit, the expected expansion in the business sector will be constrained and more mortgage borrowers will run into difficulties."
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...lian-sharemarket/story-e6frg8zx-1225867936990
have posted commentary on other threads .
same argument could be used for houses a very illiquid asset. high in and out cost . on going costs also
Have you considered that the markets had gone up too far too fast and a correction was to happen anyway?
The markets IMO are manipulated by big players and the European issues although concerning are an excuse for bringing the markets down.
Volatility helps big players and is in their interest to create the conditions for a correction.
IMO we should look at this correction as an opportunity
because if the EU push for more regulation in the markets and succeed, then we might have to wait a long time for the next correction to come.
Something to think about...
Hiya urbanprospector,
I appreciate your comments regarding the effect of Euro debt on Australia and the fact that some of us don't always understand to what extent our countries prosperity is put at risk by those events. Certainly stirs up some strong feelings here.
Could it get as bad here as in the US with many houses unable to be sold and some changing hands for $1.00? Who knows.
One thing about the stock market is in the now near total disconnect of stock price and company value.
Take the strange 1000 point slump the other day. The Australian housing market is not somewhere you will find an investor "hedging against the risk spread of a synthetic collatoralized debt obligation." Not alot of "automatic algorithm driven high volume micro-trades" going on either.
I am building a PPR house at the moment. Pretty simple design, not huge, just a well built 4 x 2. The contract price is $268,000. There are a bunch of moderately paid tradesmen working thier butts off for several months. We are sourcing some second hand materials, there is very little waste. It is value you can see and touch.
If my house value declines to $1, like many many Australians, I will sit tight until it doesn't.
I think we have a very low level of foreclosure and not a lot of NINJA loans in this country.
I think it was you who brought up the little guy with kids on $50k trying to buy a house but couldn't leading to a drop in demand.
Let him rent then.
yes i agree on many points and i still have 5 acres i own to build on i will be doing it myself though .also handy having 5 acres of hardwood.
was only 79k and has creek .inland 20 mins from rainbow bch qld
foreclosures is going to depend on how the rba goes with inflation.
on the ninja loans .. more out there than you think . i called a broker . she said go get an ABN. i had no job and no income apart from bank interest .
borrowed the money as suited my situation .. paid in full
the dow la vegas is a feeking joke .they trying to bring flash trading here too .. yes hard not to make money when you get the money at 0% have the fastest trading system and even if you make a loss your bailed out .
all four of the big banks in the usa had a perfect quarter .. they made money everyday they traded .. average time they own a stock was 11 seconds . is the only reason why decent volume on the market ..
so i give that stupidity a miss..
it's bad enough with the naked shorting in the bullion market .
asx looks to continue its down path with blips on the way down. imo
gold target 1400 us will be choppy on the way . this depending on 1218 holding
aussie $ to continue down i feel .no target worked out yet ..
imo and dyodd
lets see how that pans out
gold broke the 1218 resistance could see as low as 1145 before tuesday to close out options worthless .large amount due 1150 tuesday .
asx and $ no change continue down but choppy .. trend is down
asx and $ no change continue down but choppy .. trend is down
well hows it doing so far
