Starting a new thread in response to Bruce rather than hijack Bianca's here http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22286.
A lot of the mining companies are not as desperate to build new properties as you'd think. Though many of the towns were originally built by the mining companies, a lot of the housing stock was sold off to wages employees and they now only house their staff. Staff numbers have increased with the boom but only enough to take up the excess housing stock (it is mainly contractors and some wages employees that have expanded in numbers). There may be some requirement for them to build extra housing (I'm thinking about Moranbah here, this isn't the case in Blackwater yet) but I can't imagine it would be too extensive. As for releasing stock, I think they have already offloaded a significant amount in the previous trough and there would have to be a fairly big downturn for them to offload any more.
As far as further subdivisions, the council in Blackwater at least is having a lot of problems getting Qld DNRM approval so if you have a short to mid term approach to building and reselling, I see very little downside risk. Long-term there is obviously a lot more potential for some downside. Hard to tell if we are at a peak but we are definitely closer to it than it was two years ago.
With regards to the coke plant at Stanwell, I doubt I have any more info than what you've heard in the news. However, my understanding is that they aren't very labour intensive so I can't see it directly affecting housing demand although coke plants obviously affect coking coal demand. They are also very costly to shut down once started so demand for coking coal should remain fairly high if more are built.
Todd
thefirstbruce said:Would be interested to hear more from you. The risks with many of these towns is that more product will be released downstream by the mining companies themselves, and that large sub divisions may eventually even supply and demand, and erode rents. I understand there is a large men's quarters going up in Blackwater. And much of the land in these towns is leasehold to the mining companies. The other risk is how much growth one might see in the next 10 years. THough I remain confident on coal exports.
But then, as you suggest, there's no risk if one builds and sells immediately...
Do you know what the latest is regarding the MacCarthur Coal coking plant at Stanwell outside Rocky?
A lot of the mining companies are not as desperate to build new properties as you'd think. Though many of the towns were originally built by the mining companies, a lot of the housing stock was sold off to wages employees and they now only house their staff. Staff numbers have increased with the boom but only enough to take up the excess housing stock (it is mainly contractors and some wages employees that have expanded in numbers). There may be some requirement for them to build extra housing (I'm thinking about Moranbah here, this isn't the case in Blackwater yet) but I can't imagine it would be too extensive. As for releasing stock, I think they have already offloaded a significant amount in the previous trough and there would have to be a fairly big downturn for them to offload any more.
As far as further subdivisions, the council in Blackwater at least is having a lot of problems getting Qld DNRM approval so if you have a short to mid term approach to building and reselling, I see very little downside risk. Long-term there is obviously a lot more potential for some downside. Hard to tell if we are at a peak but we are definitely closer to it than it was two years ago.
With regards to the coke plant at Stanwell, I doubt I have any more info than what you've heard in the news. However, my understanding is that they aren't very labour intensive so I can't see it directly affecting housing demand although coke plants obviously affect coking coal demand. They are also very costly to shut down once started so demand for coking coal should remain fairly high if more are built.
Todd
