People have been saying that about nsw & qld for a while but clock hasn't ticked much
Yes, you are right, but we cannot generalize with property per state, in the past we perhaps could. An interesting read is, "Mastering the Australian Housing Market" by John Lindeman. I attended one of his presentations and he was great!
He explains how the housing market works (since 1901 to 2012 present). He mentions Housing markets theories (the generalization of property market cycle, the long term 8% growth). Example, of ABS data was for around 100 years representing around 8% growth but (30 years 3%, 10 years -3%, 10 years 12%, 43 years 9%, 4 years 2%). So some luck has to play on our part when the growth occurred. Gave example of Aguarelle North Sydney suburb sale in 2003 at $1.45K, sold in 2012 at $1.25K. This is 14% loss, real loss 50% if we add inflation.
I do not wish to scare you here, but just to make you realize property is trading to no growth so being picky/selective/knowledgeable is the key.
Example since 2007 to 2012: Kurrajong fell in value, Homebush rose 40%, Sydney not changed since 2007, so you see there are suburbs that may perform while others don't. IMO, times have changed where we no longer can generalize about drivers of property but we need to rather specialize.
He mentioned lagging indicators (looking at median price), and misleading indicators (time on market, vendor discounting, rental yields - e.g. yields could be rising due to property prices falling not just new jobs being created - so we need to look at the cause and effect, different cause produces different effect on rental yield).
Leading indicators (Sales trends, for potential buyers and Listing trends). Quickstats and YIP or API magazines he used to predict distressed sales in suburbs and compared 1 years listings of sellers to buyers to see if they were coming down.
It was quite analytical and fast paced but it was really informative...
Perhaps the book above will help?
I haven't bought it yet, but I plan to!
