Realistic growth expectations

Growth in Resi property over next 10-20yrs P.A

  • Negative growth (mention percentage as reply)

    Votes: 6 5.3%
  • 1-3% P.A

    Votes: 13 11.4%
  • 3-5% P.A

    Votes: 32 28.1%
  • 5-7% P.A

    Votes: 35 30.7%
  • 7-9% P.A

    Votes: 14 12.3%
  • 9%+ P.A

    Votes: 14 12.3%

  • Total voters
    114
  • Poll closed .
It takes only 5% -7% fall per year plus inflation to realise a 30% drop in 3-4 years. Thats not much and it certainly doesnt take a crash.

I think we will be flat/slightly falling for years as i cant see anything to drive above average demand in property. Can anyone else?

A similar scenario to the 90's decade with the only thing that started demand then was high rental yields as property prices had done nothing for most of the decade.

Remember, if property prices are stagnant, in reality that is a 3% - 4% drop per year.
 
"So start providing ideas how to make money." I've told you..... resources.

Gold and silver on a tear tonight. Silver up X5 since I started buying it sub $7 oz.

yes Sunfish both you and hobojo highlight your views and then come up with alternative investment strategies.

Although we disagree often, i still respect both of you as posters on this forum.

Its easy to be a D&G'er, but its not very profitable unless one can show an alternative investment opportunity (and one thats works).
 
Why must you always be doing something? Jesse Livermore was an incurable daytrader but even he admits he sometimes did his best when he did nothing.

I resent being dismissed as a D&Ger with the inference that I'm too timid and stupid to do anything positive (I buy resource stocks, remember?) but if all you know is RE then this is a good time to get your house in order. Isn't that "doing something"?
 
I wouldn't say you're a doom and gloomer. I'm talking about those people out there who are angry that they have missed out on a big boom....
 
I wouldn't say you're a doom and gloomer. I'm talking about those people out there who are angry that they have missed out on a big boom....

I have often been abused as such. How do you know everyone else's motives? I think the one you quote is a crock. Many here who think it is the wrong time for property do own, or have recently owned, it. They think of themselves as realists.

I only know one person who genuinely fits your description and he posts on another "SS" forum.
 
Any time a newspaper article comes out on the property market/sales, before long 200 comments are posted talking about the pending 30% crash/overpriced/housing affordability etc. My example is not isolated nor is it erroneous.
 
Why must you always be doing something? Jesse Livermore was an incurable daytrader but even he admits he sometimes did his best when he did nothing.

I resent being dismissed as a D&Ger with the inference that I'm too timid and stupid to do anything positive (I buy resource stocks, remember?) but if all you know is RE then this is a good time to get your house in order. Isn't that "doing something"?

"Doing something" does not necessarily mean moving in and out of positions.

Jessie Livermore reference to doing "nothing" is related to two things:
(a) Mr Turkey: If one is positioned in the correct trend, and the overall trend is upwards, then do nothing. Sit tight.
(b) staleness. Do not trade for the sake of trading. If ones mind is stale, sit on the sidelines and look for the next opportunity.
 
I only know one person who genuinely fits your description and he posts on another "SS" forum.

Apologies about the length of the following post and so that people do not waste their time reading it; if you are not interested in personal opinion / information then I suggest you don't bother reading it.

Anyway I have the words to that; 'your so vein' song rattling around in my head so I will assume the above is 'probably about me'?

If you mean me, my issues lie with government policy making it so difficult to do anything in this fine country. If it sounds like I am crying poor, I guess I am, but it will be the whole country crying poor if the government continues to forget precisely what a competitive advantage is and how stupid it is to handcuff your own population with stupid policy.

Yes I would prefer the government to streamline development and infrastructure deployment and yes it would benefit those looking to buy their first home at the expense of those who bought before development was considered by the community as a mortal sin who have profited from urban consolidation and other policy responses to community anger over development.

I have for too long been involved in wasting taxpayers money and seen it wasted in the construction sector where before you can do anything you might spend 10s of thousands relocating a handfull of lizards at 20k a pop by the time you find the buggers. Far better spent on habitat restoration elsewhere but anyway I digress....

Anyway in this country the government sponge off the private sector which works as long as you have a powerhouse like the resources sector which we have in this country keeping the economy ticking along in spite of government policy. Certainly this country is not the way it is because of good government policy and investment in the infrastructure the private sector needs to be competitive with the rest of the world. Due to my firm belief that the population of a country is only as prosporous as it is as a result of the infrastructure and education / tenacity of its people I believe we will not know what hit us if and when the investment in our commodities sector slows.

We will look back on this era of opportunity, more accurately opportunity squandered in the coming years and realise we had a chance to build this country and instead we made it so bloody difficult for anyone to build anything that at the end of a massive mineral push on our trade figures we are left with no government savings, small private sector savings and very little to show for it in infrastructure.

Anyway all that aside why am I here? As I save a deposit it has dawned on me that even if you have a bearish outlook on housing a PPOR is still a good "investment" should you have a large deposit. Even assuming 0% nominal house price growth (pretty bearish) and 7% interest it is line ball with renting if you can fund the entire house purchase due to the tax treatment of savings. Compared to sticking it in a deposit account and getting 4% after tax return saving 25k on rent per annum seems like a good enough proposition to put your money. To be clear I do not have a 500k deposit, but as I save more and as my wifes marginal rate of tax ticks up (this is where we save our coin in my wifes name, lucky I trust her!) it gets to a point where buying becomes a proposition. DO I agree with such a tax system on savings? Maybe not but the moves to change it are so marginal as a result of the henry review I don't hold up hopes of it ever changing substantively.

So even being bearish there does come a time that buying a PPOR makes sense if you also include still tangible but not financial things. I know how much those who do not invest in homes are derided here (only by some) but even a PPOR is a significant investment if you like looking at such things in those terms. For mine it will be around the 500k mark. The biggest investment I will ever make and given the time spent on such purchases when I make them in my employment I think it is worth investing some time in the same for my personal acquisitions. Also in the long term I would buy residential properties in capital cities as for a retirement vehicle they make a lot of sense being both an inflationh hedge and a source of income. The yields just do not justify it in my opinion at present. Again this is different to a PPOR decision.

So to summarise my position while I do not think buying PPOR's on high LVR's is a prudent thing to do including for our financial system to allow it I am realistic enough to understand that our taxation system on savings encourages the purchase of a home if only to allow you to avoid that after tax expense of rent.

Anyway I don't plan on buying till at least after July this year when our 2 FHSA mature (one place your savings are not taxed ridiculously!) and more than likely end of 2011 when our lease expires, so short of being banned I plan on posting here on occasions for the next several months. Maybe my 0.5 posts per day count might even get higher...
 
Stop being angry buddy. It costs money to live - get over it. This country doesn't owe you anything just because you were born with an Australian passport. You have to pay your way through life - and only then will you value what you have. Otherwise you end up with bogan welfare leechers who live in Frankston and post nude pictures of football players
 
Remember writing this Tom?

I'm more aware of the fact that we don't live in a perfect world than you appreciate. The fact that you're still allowed to waste air by breathing tells me straight up the truth of that statement.
You'd have to be the most qualified option for a solvent green program that I've ever had the displeasure to deal with *********. Seriously.
 
Remember writing this Tom?

I'm more aware of the fact that we don't live in a perfect world than you appreciate. The fact that you're still allowed to waste air by breathing tells me straight up the truth of that statement.
You'd have to be the most qualified option for a solvent green program that I've ever had the displeasure to deal with *********. Seriously.

No I don't?
 
In which case you aren't the guy I referred to. He DID post that and last I looked it was allowed to stand.

Edit: You do have the same "style" of writing though.

Yeh, I am tom on every forum I have posted on either tom or tom32. I cannot lay claim to every tom on the internet but they would have this name if they were me.
 
Stop being angry buddy. It costs money to live - get over it. This country doesn't owe you anything just because you were born with an Australian passport. You have to pay your way through life - and only then will you value what you have. Otherwise you end up with bogan welfare leechers who live in Frankston and post nude pictures of football players

I do pay my way through life? If there is a way to limit the amount of tax I pay of course I would adopt such an approach. Is this very thing though part of an investment properties appeal anyway? How is me buying a PPOR to avoid paying tax on my interest payments any different to someone negative gearing? There is nothing dodgy about it, it's just the way it is? I might say it is not a good way to levy tax, being inneficient, but this does not mean I should not take advantage of the system as it stands, should I?

I am certainly not angry with the cards I have been dealt, I am personally lucky. I do well enough because I was given near free access to uni through a cadetship and as luck would have it I studied a construction profession during the mid 90s when it was not trendy nor rewarding financially to do so, so very few were doing it. By the 2000s this turned around to the point where now graduates are able to get near 6 figures straight out of uni if they start in the production rather than the design side of things, far different to the 25k on offer in my day (I guess comparable to 50k these days?). I personally don't think these wages are sustainable, and even perhaps more importantly an economies access to engineers at the right costs is important for an economies efficiency anyway, I suspect why it is an easy one to come in with a 457 visa if you are one.

Anyway I certainly do not complain about the outcome on the hip pocket and that this is the state of our country at present does not hurt me personally. Perhaps the above post sounded like whinging but I would prefer to look at it as critical observation for the greater good for what it is worth.
 
Well I agree with you that negative gearing is responsible for why houses are the prices what they are, especially in inner-city suburbs. Otherwise it would make no sense to lose money on a house every year
 
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