Recent presentations that may be of interest.

[MarkB]

Have a look at:

http://www.abe.org.au/pindex.html

and note the presentations by:

- Glenn Stevens

- Mark Bouris

- Brendan Crotty

MB

 

[Garry K]

Thanks MB

The effect of smaller size households is not one I realised had such an impact - but clearly it is.

Interesting that the future "need" may not be in houses, but in townhouses - for our retiring babyboomers.

Garry

 

[MarkB]

Garry

Buy an older Queenslander on a huge block and in 10-15 years time build townhouses.

Have your cake and eat it too.

Mark

 

[plainsong]

Garrys comment is interesting -

At the recent investment expo in Bris someone put up a chart
with the population bulge at around the age 50 something ..
the baby boomers are getting up toward retirement and when that bulge (although slimmer) hits retirement age in around 6 to ten years there will surely be a bigger demand for suitable
housing for people looking for residences without stairs to navigate, close to shops and doctors and transport, in a pleasant
area --lots of people i know about the 60 age group are just
hanging out to sell the old queenslander and find a smaller place with good security where they can lock up their stuff and go on a holiday, no more house mantainence for them they have had enough of that,
If i were a developer I would be looking at building with the 50
to 65 year old market in mind --such as Villa's (no stairs) ect,
I dont believe that end of the market is being catered for -everyone doesnt want to live in a retirement village, but many people would like some alternatives..

my 2 cents worth anyhow,

cheers,

 

[Peter Parker]

I'd argue that part of the reason why the property market is booming is the rate of household formation, which is outstripping population growth (ie average household size falling and more homes needed for a given population due to divorce rate, smaller families, more living along, ageing of pop, etc). Note that this is not a necessary condition, however, as the same trends occurred in the early 90s, where prices were stagnant.

Neil Jenman pointed out the household size trend in a recent talk:

Early 1900s: Avg new house 2br, Average household 4 people
2003: Average new house 4br, Average household 2.? people

Therefore population can be stable, but demand for housing can still grow. This is a long-trend trend that's been going on for the better part of a century. For it to reverse, there would need to be some social and economic changes, eg swing back to larger families, more people sharing houses, communal living, etc.

Given that flats/villas are a higher proportion of houses in capital cities than in country centres, I can see well-located quality villas being good long-term rental propositions in regional towns, even those showing negligible population growth. By quality, I mean air-conditioned, brick & tile and with garage/storage space.

Peter