seaford vic gaining?

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by bigbucks, 15th Aug, 2009.

  1. Sunfish

    Sunfish Member

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    As a share trader I'm amused by this post. It must have been said here a thousand times that property investors buy and hold and share investors rely on timing and stock selection. And we all know that they are totally unpredictable therefore gambling.

    Am I the only one who sees the irony here?
     
  2. meconium

    meconium Banned

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    Although property is usually a buy and hold proposition, there are times when a catalyst can make property prices in a particular area move up sharply

    1. The arrival of St Kilda football club in Seaford will almost certainly have a positive effect on prices as players and staff will most likely relocate to the area.

    2. Most local houses are on dual-occ blocks; the area is ripe for redevelopment and will be transformed, thanks to the pro-development stance of the Council.
     
  3. BayView

    BayView Member

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    I agree in part SF.

    The critical aspect of the Saints in Seaford as an influence on the area will be if the players and Club associates move into the area to add their "celebrity" to it. Then watch it go.

    People are very sheep-like (penguins is my pet description :D) and will follow a bit of fame and fortune no matter if the decision is good or bad.

    I have seen this with McCrae near us - no infrastructure, no "near the beach" dwellings, and yet the place has boomed to oblivion. :confused:

    I guess what happened was one lawyer bought there, so then his mate did, then their surgeon mate did as well and so on. The Joneses?

    Everyone wants to be famous, rich, or live near both.
     
  4. steve00

    steve00 Member

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    ..

    seen a house in seacrest ave for sale, anyone got any info on that street????
     
  5. bigbucks

    bigbucks Member

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    Yes Steve I know this area well sea crest ave is near the Austin road shop strip mainly working class area blocks are a nice size and the people in that area vary from retired to young trades and families a lot of nice renovations in that street.
    The area is probably the better part non beachside I would imagine 350k is starting point and probably good value at that if you can find a well looked after and livable b/v I have seen a few in the adjoining streets sold recently at about 375k.
    Also know a property sold in chicquita ave for 490k and another at 360k
    I would have thought this area to be the first choice for buyers priced out of the beachside area of seaford.
    Dept of housing also have property in the top end of Austin road area.
    Had a goon redneck vibe to the area but has cleaned up a lot of late.
    Nice primary school also in the area near sea crest.
    I would think this area would be a hold proposition up to the 500k spike.
     
  6. bigbucks

    bigbucks Member

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    Also anything in that area of seaford under 175k per unit site value would make good sense.
    Just add the value of the building to that per unit site value and would explain my thoughts that anything at 350k ish would be a good proposition.
     
  7. bigbucks

    bigbucks Member

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    The property in chaquita ave that sold at 490k had a huge b/v about 4years old that would have cost at least 300k to build and sat on a 600 plus sq' metro block
     
  8. Ms Jade

    Ms Jade Down the Rabbit Hole

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    Too true. But how likely do you think it is that the players will actually live in Seaford? They trained in Moorabbin up til now and I believe many of them live in Brighton. My guess it that club associates will move within 15 minutes of the ground but won't necessarily live in the suburb.
     
  9. ramzd

    ramzd Member

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    I dont think the players or staff need to live in the area for it to gain the celebrity feel. The players will spend a high percentage of their time at the training facility anyway. Can you imagine what sort of effect the players going on their morning jogs through streets such as Austin, Centernary Ave etc etc would have??

    And what about if St Kilda make the finals again in 2010??? You'll have fans pumping through the area to catch a glimpse of the stars as they train.l
     
  10. bigbucks

    bigbucks Member

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    I think that due to the latest increase in interest rates price rises to property in Seaford and other areas are now dead in the water.
    Houses will be a lot harder to move with the higher rates and reduced lending capacity.
    I think history will show prices have now peaked for the short term.
    This may also result in less income for r/e agents.
    May be time to look for a second job folks.
    I have a friend in retail and things are looking bleak for Xmas.
     
  11. meconium

    meconium Banned

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    Thanks for perpetuating the negativity and the doom and gloom. Actually, there have been innumerable examples in Australia's economic history where house prices rose as interest rates crept up. No matter what, people need a place to live and Seaford is still incredibly cheap when compared to the rest of Melbourne.
     
  12. pickle pickle

    pickle pickle Member

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    Unless you are relying on capital growth in the short term, most property investors will actually beneifit in a drop of prices as it gives them a chance to get more property. It may bruise the ego a bit but if one isn't forced to sell, the investor has nothing to be worried about with a marginal fall in prices. Heck most investors will benifit from it. If rent also drops, then we'll have an issue.
     
  13. Peter Parker

    Peter Parker Member

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    I'm not sure if that's the case.

    The average Melbourne suburb is 20km from the CBD. Seaford is over 35km away. Seaford is significantly further away from large universities (in particular) than many other middle/outer distance suburbs eg Noble Park, Mitcham or Mill Park.

    Melbourne's weather and people don't value the beach as much as (say) Perthites or Sydneysiders so our bayside suburbs are relatively cheaper, especially if a fair distance from the city. And you'd be suprised at the number of people who hate the beach.

    And most of Seaford is beyond walking distance to the beach.

    If people need to drive is there much difference between a 5 min drive and a 20 min drive that on average might be made 5 times a year?

    Whereas a similar difference in commuting (which might be almost a daily trip) is far more significant.
     
  14. maccaz69

    maccaz69 Member

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    I'd be interested to know why no one seems to have the foresight to compare suburbs on their proximity to a cad as opposed to melbourne cbd? I think Seaford will appreciate in the future based on its proximity to frankston. Frankston I believe will be a mini melbourne cbd in the future especially if swinbourne establish a campus there. And looking at the beachside suburbs north and south of seaford one must conclude melbournians do indeed rate proximity to the coastline highly & contrary to your statement the entire area beachside of the freeway in seaford is walking distance to the beach. That would be well more than half given seaford extends as far north as eel race rd and as far south as overton rd. And if you asked a sample of people who live within walking distance of the beach how often they frequent the beach I believe your 5 times a year statement will be proven far from correct - I live within walking distance to the beach & walk the beach with my dog every wkend, usually more.

    I also think that whilst seaford is perhaps considered too far away from the city by some (which is what people said about Moorabbin & Highett 30 years ago) public transport moves more people to & from the cbd daily than do cars. Considering most of Seaford residents can walk to a station (considering it is probably the only suburb served by two trainstations) & express services run in peak times, one can commute to the city in 45 mins without having to even get in a car. No 2nd car required, no traffic to worry about, no parking a kilometre down the back of the station carpark & having to walk 10 minutes anyway. Compare that to Mulgrave for example - enter the Monash at peak hr and travel an average of 35 km p/h to reach the city in the same time without being able to drink a coffee and read the paper during that time. No comparison!
     
  15. The Donners

    The Donners Member

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    It's painfully true! Thanks for the reality check buddy!!! :mad::p:)

    I've moved from Rowville and now live at the foot of the Dandenongs. It takes me the same amount of time to get to work as it did previously, the road is beautiful until you hit Ferntree Gully Rd, Wheelers Hill - which was a lovely suburb that I grew up in - en route to the Monash on-ramp. Same problem I had in Rowville only it was the Wellington Rd, Mulgrave on-ramp.

    There aren't many more frustrating things than taking well over 60mins to travel 25km-30km on ocassions. The Monash carpark, gotta love it! :rolleyes:
     
  16. schweedy

    schweedy Member

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    Have you done a comparision to beachside/neighbouring suburbs in the other major cities???? Sadly you get beach junkies in all states and the Victorians seem to be used to the cold and adapt anyway.

    I just think if you look at the markets in say sydney, brisbane and perth for comparisions, you will find that living on the outskirts of the city, but close to the beach , is certainly appealing to many and does help keep the prices on the rise.
     
  17. Righteous Toss

    Righteous Toss Member

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    I think being further away from the city is one of Seafords good points. It keeps the beach in better condition and crowd numbers down. Seaford beach has one of the finest examples of remnent Coastal Banksia woodlands on the bay. It's the last bastion so fairly significant.
    I'm into arts & music and all things cultural and I don't have any trouble getting into the city, St. Kilda, Fitzroy, Brunswick etc every weekend.
    Even better I still get to enjoy all the good things that living beachside has to offer.
     
  18. Peter Parker

    Peter Parker Member

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    As much as I like the idea of Frankston being a suburban centre, the track record of these centres isn't so good. Just because it's in a government plan does not mean it's going to happen.

    An example is the District Centres policy of the 1950s, where certain centres (eg Moorabbin & Box Hill) were nominated as satellite centres. Box Hill did develop as a centre, but still has fewer jobs than Clayton or Tullamarine.

    Moorabbin failed; today is a traffic sewer surrounding an ugly railway station that lost its local government status. Local residents are resisting a social housing project mooted for the area. Meanwhile nearby Southland kept growing, and even expanded across the Nepean Hwy. Central Footscray (another planned centre) is similarly a squalid slum while Highpoint has thrived.

    Hence basing investment decisions on government plans for an area (that may or may not happen) is risky. Better to look at where private money is going as well.

    But nowhere near as highly as (say) Sydneysiders rank their northern beach suburbs 30-40 odd km from the CBD.


    Sure you can walk it, but I suspect most families, with their frisbees, shade tents, towels etc would drive rather than walk.



    Agreed. But that's a skewed sample - those who like the beach are more likely than average to live near it.

    A better survey method would be to compare the % of prospective buyers who value living near the beach versus other attractions eg work and education, as well as factors like a particular house and family ties.

    True, but the vast majority of people do not work in the CBD. And for these commuters public transport has a much lower share.

    There are substantial employment concentrations in suburban Melbourne in areas such as Tullamarine and Clayton. Seaford and surrounds has much sparser employment levels. Hence the proportion of Melbourne's jobs within say a 30 minute commute much lower than a suburb like Camberwell, Oakleigh or even Springvale.

    Don't get me wrong - I love parts of Seaford and the shopping area has picked up well compared to 5 years or so ago. However it's an extremely varied suburb and less than 25% of its area would be walkable (ie <10 min) of the supermarket, shopping strip, station and beach.

    Areas inland of the freeway aren't so handy to the beach, and a large section of south Seaford (where most of the cheap units are) have no significant shops easily walkable and has Kananook as its local station (due to its clientele is less desirable than others on the line, and won't be getting staffing upgrades, unlike Seaford).
     
  19. maccaz69

    maccaz69 Member

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    I do agree that the track record for regional centres has had a mixed history but I think that given urban sprawl far too many people are living too far away from the cbd and have too poor an access to any facilities &/or infrastructure which the cbd provides. The government know this and it is leading to apartments and units sprawling up everywhere so people can access the cbd which I believe will lead to regional centres becoming hugely important in the future once we reach saturation point. There are only so many people who will put up with crammed living conditions to access the
    cbd.

    Moorabbin and Box hill are different; they were nothing suburbs with nothing to attract people to the area. Frankston is different; it is not only attractive but it is really the only viable 'city' for people living down the mornington peninsula. Ask anyone from Sorrento where they go to shop and they say they head into frankston for anything they can't source locally.

    The other thing is that frankston is only a half hr drive to dandenong/clayton and about 15 mins to springvale so it is not far from these employment centres either whilst still retaining the ability to easily access the cbd via train. It has poor access to Tullamarine but then again no one who lives south of the yarra really ever wants to visit the 'north'!

    And to see the number of people who appreciate the beach one only needs to check out springvale/edithvale rd on any warm night it is mayhem. These are the inlanders trying to access the closest beach. Whilst only a tiny example it shows there are a lot of people who appreciate the beach; not to mention the crowds actually all over the beach and the rediculous prices houses in bonbeach are even pulling at the moment. Most of beachside seaford is within a 10 to 12 minute walk from the beach I would estimate. Seaford probably contains more homes within this walking distance to the beach than any suburb north of it (other than brighton) and I think being within 10 min walk of the beach is considered close. Try and drive to any beach and park - if it takes less than 10 minutes to find a spot and pay for a ticket on a good day i'll be surprised. You will probably end up parking so far away its a 10 min walk anyway.

    Yes unfortunately seaford beachside only has the one supermarket - safeway. However most people (unless your into walking a shopping trolley home!) always drive for supermarket shopping anyway as its impossible to walk even 5 minutes carrying the weekly shop. I think the importance of shopping is the small food/cafe/restaurant scene which is improving especially with the lifesaving club. A nice posh resaurant would be great but I don't think a buying decision is won or lost based on a fancy restaurant. Unfortunately the south doesn't have a shopping precinct other than a milkbar but horses for courses I guess. I also don't think kananook station is a problem anymore - those living in the past remembering that girl who got kidnapped there fail to realise not only was that a lifetime ago but she wasn't the only girl to go missing just about every suburb has had some one go missing, get assaulted or be murdered. Not sure why the kananook one sticks in so many peoples minds - I think its because everyone is keen to hate Frankston but I don't know why.

    In any event I don't really want people to like the suburb too much yet as I want an ip there in the nearish future and if too many people like it before then I won't be able to afford it!!
     
  20. meconium

    meconium Banned

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    Some of you folks are over-analyzing. It's hard not to make money in Seaford/Frankston as both suburbs are coming off an extremely low price base, priced well below the Melbourne median.

    For me, the attraction is the size of the blocks - most are ripe for development and two houses can be constructed where there was once one. Rentable homes on large developable blocks can still be had for around $350,000 - pretty darn cheap. Try doing that on the cheap in any other bayside suburb!

    I don't know or care if Frankston/Seaford are great places to live in right now. What I do know is this: the smart money is moving in while prices remain low; change is an inevitability.