See Change Strategy

In one of the LOE threads Steve asked me to describe what we've done

Our strategy has been simple.

Twice we've done ( well ,one done , one about to be ) subdivisions in sydneys north shore. They say, start close at home and that's were we started .... our home ( Even though we were told by council officials that it was not subdividable ...but that another story .... never trust Experts :). Listen to them , but then make up your own mind.

We subdivided and due to finance concerns sold one block, built on the second and then sold that. To find the second we looked at every property that came up for sale for several months in our target suburbs .

You'd think if some one was on a 3070M2 block they'd advertise the size , but their loss was our gain. Bought this for about half the price of what we'd got for our previous house , so with no PPOR mortgage ( Quickly rectified by Rolf ) we went on a spending spree in Hobart, Logan , Rockhampton and Townsville.

People talk about low returns of 5% for property, but if you buy in the right time of the cycle you can get good returns on well placed properties. A block of units we bought in Newtown , Hobart are returning gross 15 % on the purchase price with minimal in the way of maintainence. I know several members on the forum who have achieved these and better returns. Difficult know but probably not impossible. There's some very creative members on the forum . Even Logan is returning 12 % for people who bought prior to the current boom , though it tends to have more maintainence issues, and anyone buying into these types of areas expecting to get a cash return on a 8% gross return is likely to be disappointed.

It's taken about two years to get a dual occ / subdivision approved on our new home , though this time we're going to develope it fully ourselves. While we could pay for it with borrowed funds, we're selling / sold some of our properties in order to keep the debt level down mainly from the SANF point of view. Hope to finish building this year and if the sydney market is OK we'll sell, but if it's tanked, we'll be in the position to transfer it into a trust fund and hold it there untill the market picks up again.

If we sell, I'll have the option of selling my business and moving onto something else ( though I may keep going for a while yet). I'll also be looking at share investing. I've had an interest in shares predating property ( though it's been mainly on hold for the last three years ) I've recently developed a mechanical trading system which I've started trading about two months ago. After about five weeks I thought I was a f.... genius , but it is a long term system and I knew I shouldn't expect to make money quickly :( . The thing that got me excited at the moment if meeting a friend who's returning 40% pa on a conservative mechanical system. My system is a variation of his and on back testing returns over 50 % . I'll just have to wait to see if I can get that sort of return in real life.

I would like to trade shares successfully myself , however if I find I'm in the majority with most people and just end up loosing money, I'll be looking at investing with some more aggressive managed funds , with some degree of gearing. Steve would certainly be one person I'd be talking to at this stage as, after all his original expertise is in shares.

I will be looking at buying somewhere in Sydney in 2006 ( not cash flow , good capital growth ) because I think there are some areas that have the potential to give above average growth in the next cycle and possibly go up even if the overall market is sick. Within that area, I'll be looking for a renovator or possible something that can be developed as a dual occ , or rented on a room / room basis. A more exciting option would be trying to aggragate several blocks for a medium density / or a high rise using options , with the intention to flip the sale.

Once there are signs that the sysdney market is moving then I'd start buying more aggressively , Keeping some for longer term , but also I'd be happy to more actively trade in some areas in a company structure. Advantage of this is you only pay company tax rates if you hold for less than 1 year, and with this I'd be looking at some short term trading as well as possibly trying to get a team of reliable tradesman to do short term reno's with a view to sell quickly. Then Gradually doing the same moving along the east coast.

Of course this is just the back up plan in case I don't write a worldwide number one hit song...... :D and that will become a priority after we finish our current project.

I also put some of my thinking in these posts last year.

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14045&highlight=turn
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11656

See Change
 
thanks for sharing SC.
I interpreted that you got your good buys at least a year ago.
Have you bought anything since the market tanked?

Like a bull share market, I think it is easy to create a mechanical system for making money in a bull property market.

However, I am reading a book called American Sucker at the moment, about a journo who got burnt in the tech crash. Further, I was trading resource stocks intensively last year thinking I was a f*rt smeller. But I realized I'd have to do options and warrants to sustain the result when the market levelled out, plus it would be ten times harder. So i ditched the heavy time commitment, and went back to the 3D world to work on the cash flow and try and build a business I could sell.

Do you think your mechanical monster can sustain results through a flat share market?

Have you looked at systems for trading high leverage, liquidity, volume, and volatility things like forex and stock indices?
 
Bruce

In my share system I have an index filter which divides the Market into Up Trend and non up Trend . The system has different triggers for these two senario's. Even when the market is going backwards there are some shares that go forwards, even it it's only the people specialising in insolvencies .....

On back testing it has made money consistently over the last 8 or so years. There are six month periods where it goes sideways , but once it gets up to 18 - 24 months it's around it's long term average.

I havn't looked at any leveraging or derivative markets at this stage. If I find I can make money consistently in shares I'd think about derivatives, but talking to other traders , if you can't make money consistently in the share market , you're going to find derivatives just a quicker way to loose money.

See Change
 
see_change said:
If I find I can make money consistently in shares I'd think about derivatives, but talking to other traders , if you can't make money consistently in the share market , you're going to find derivatives just a quicker way to loose money.
Personally I'm always interested in ways to reach loose money :)


SC, have you moved beyond paper trading the system yet?

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
Aceyducey said:
Personally I'm always interested in ways to reach loose money :)


SC, have you moved beyond paper trading the system yet?

Cheers,

Aceyducey

Started trading at the begining of Dec. Mid way through Jan I thought I was a.... genius , but Febuary undid that.

My biggest problem is that I'm instinctively a short term trader, while my system is more a medium term system. I'm sticking to the rules , but that doesn't stop me checking what the prices are doing during the day and experiencing all the emotions that go with seeing a share rise 15 % the day after :D you bought it then hitting it's stop at a loss two weeks later :mad:.

I must admitt I'm getting better and now have somedays where I don't check the prices. It's a weekly system so I make all the decisions on the weekend.

Had a nice day today , mainly due to NMS which was up over 15 % on the day..... :cool:

See Change
 
see_change said:
all the emotions that go with seeing a share rise 15 % the day after :D you bought it then hitting it's stop at a loss two weeks later :mad:.

Don't you raise your stop losses to protect significant gains? My attitude is near money is dear money, so if you raise the stop loss, and it gets triggered, well you just realized your gain; and start afresh.


Was talking with Waysolid today about the trust we put in stop losses always stopping losses. But if you look at the terms the brokers protect themselves with, they don't put any guarantee on a stop loss. Events like 9/11 make a mockery of them. If you have 2000 contracts triggered, and there's only 3 buyers, then stop loss slippage is very cruel......
 
Hi SC,

I’ve found trading is a waste of time unless you devote to it as a full time job – what a boring job it is though! I was turning over large amounts with 100+ trades per year. I was thinking am a share trader genius and even tech crash didn’t effect me that much (thanks to stop losses, though I bought back a bit too soon :mad: ). I was so involved that it was an absolute shock when my accountant raised a concern about rate of return to number of trades. It really hit me hard – I WAS WASTING MY TIME :eek: !!! This is exactly how it was –January/Monday/Morning is fantastic, February/Tuesday/Afternoon takes it back and round and round it goes.

Please don’t take it as a negative comment. This is just my 2 cents and I sincerely hope you got your mechanical system right.

Good luck.

M.

P.S. Your friend who achieves consistently 40% returns on a mechanical system must be a genius :eek: !
 
thefirstbruce said:
Don't you raise your stop losses to protect significant gains? My attitude is near money is dear money, so if you raise the stop loss, and it gets triggered, well you just realized your gain; and start afresh.


Was talking with Waysolid today about the trust we put in stop losses always stopping losses. But if you look at the terms the brokers protect themselves with, they don't put any guarantee on a stop loss. Events like 9/11 make a mockery of them. If you have 2000 contracts triggered, and there's only 3 buyers, then stop loss slippage is very cruel......


Bruce I do have a stop loss. It's an ATR trailing loss with a multiplier which is volitility based . I found with my back testing that having a wider stop gives you better long term results as you don't get whipsawed in and out of trades as easily. My system is a weekly system , which I did deliberatly so I don't have to spend time on the computer every day..... All the time on the computer went into the design of the system , rather than in the execution of the system .

See Change
 
boring,boring,boring

Mikhaila said:
I’ve found trading is a waste of time unless you devote to it as a full time job – what a boring job it is though!
I agree 100% - boring, boring boring.
 
Hi SC,

Thanks for your incredibly generous post :) . It's inspiring to hear your investing story, and all the lessons your learning from both the share and property markets!

Cheers, Medine.
 
keithj said:
I agree 100% - boring, boring boring.


LoL real boring having two many coffees in the morning, going to the gym and having excess free time to do well nothing ;-)

For me it was a case of creating a lifestyle I wanted from earning an income (re the boring trading job) as i didnt have enough assets to derive a passive income to create the same liefstyle ;-)

The boring trading job basically creates time which a "normal" job doesnt.

Time needs to be the main criteria, as you dont have much of it!!
 
I'd agree with all the comment about trading being boring . For most poeple it's f....... boring. For me the challange is to get the point where I can consistently make money. This has to involve as minimal wrok as possible

My main hoby is song writing. I get my thrill from writing the song, not singing it adnausea

See Change
 
Mikhaila said:
Hi SC,

P.S. Your friend who achieves consistently 40% returns on a mechanical system must be a genius :eek: !

Steve is the first to admitt that the last two years have been good for trend following systems. He's no more genius that many people on the forum. He 's persistent , looks at thing from different angles and keeps checking thingd out until he finds what he is looking for.

Steve If you read this I just wrote this so the people here don't feel too disillusioned... I mean you are a f,,,,,,, genius. I just don't want them to know that and get discouraged :)


See Change
 
Thanks for the inspiring post SC,

Would you say that you've spent more time developing the system for share trading than developing a system for property investment?

Regards,

Kenny
 
Kenny said:
Thanks for the inspiring post SC,

Would you say that you've spent more time developing the system for share trading than developing a system for property investment?

Regards,

Kenny

I've spent more time over the years reading up about shares and working out how to develop systems than I have with property. The basics of property investing are much easier to understand.

The advantage of shares is that it's easier and cheaper to physically do. Just log on the computer , enter a few numbers press ok and you own shares. Once you know what you're doing you can also make money in any type of market. The reality is most people who buy shares , don't know what they're doing.

There was a great example a few months ago of someone on the forum saying they'd bought shares in a particular company and then asking about the company....


See Change
 
Hi SC,

I thought you were talking about Steve. I disagree that NavTrade is a mechanical system though. It based on a rigid fundamental analysis of what stocks to trade. Well, this is my understanding of it based on what Steve explained on the seminar couple of years ago.

I understand your challenge about the system way too well. I spent weeks(may be it takes months or years) of fascinating research and programming different searches, indicators and buy/sell signals in MetaStock. It was fairly interesting as I am a software engineer and was able to write some complex stuff. However, I’ve come to conclusion it is simpler and in my instance more rewarding (money and time) to invest rather than trade.

M.
 
see_change said:
My main hoby is song writing. I get my thrill from writing the song, not singing it adnausea
Hi see change.

Remember reading in another thread where you mentioned song writing. I thought you were kidding.

Have you written anything that has ever been released/published?

I think that is a great hobby to have, the best I can ever come up with would be viewed as "dirty ditties", such as; The boy stood on the burning deck bla bla bla............

Regards
Marty
 
When Does trading become investing? There can be a fine cut off line.

I'm using a medium - long term trending system with a stop loss. I'm not aiming at short term trades, though if a share I buy goes through it's stop loss I'll sell one week after I buy.

I think anyone who invests in shares without a stop loss is asking for trouble.

I'm not using Steve's fund , though if I was putting money in a Managed Fund I'd consider it ( Steve Does know what he's talking about when it comes to shares ) , though only after I carefully checked out other options.

I sometimes wonder how many people on the forum who have put money in his fund , have checked out alternatives as carefully as they check out alternative IP's.

See Change
 
see_change said:
When Does trading become investing? There can be a fine cut off line.

I'm using a medium - long term trending system with a stop loss. I'm not aiming at short term trades, though if a share I buy goes through it's stop loss I'll sell one week after I buy.

I think anyone who invests in shares without a stop loss is asking for trouble.
This is funny! I started to write a reply and decided to google a bit to save time… Here is a link with pretty good definitions:
http://www.netpicks.com/articles/dayvsswingtrd.html

I am a "Long Term Swing Trader" according to the article, though I believe it can be called just a switched on investor.

see_change said:
I'm not using Steve's fund , though if I was putting money in a Managed Fund I'd consider it ( Steve Does know what he's talking about when it comes to shares ) , though only after I carefully checked out other options.

I sometimes wonder how many people on the forum who have put money in his fund , have checked out alternatives as carefully as they check out alternative IP's.

See Change
This is a good question. Personally I have part of the money in the Navra fund and I did check the alternatives.

M.
 
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