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Is this just a no-brainer great way to ;
- add value
- increase depreciation schedule figures, and
- rental returns
We paid $12.5K for a system. Our saving for the 90 days is $290.
Hi wylie,
This is the reason why solar hasn't taken off.
Even at a risk free, unleveraged 5% p.a. bank deposit rate, you could have preserved your 12.5K capital and received $ 156 in interest for the 90 days.
Obviously, exposing the same amount of capital to a prudent amount of risk and a sensible leverage would see the returns easily outperform the solar panel returns.
I understand people purchase these for the feel good factor, and that's great, but it certainly doesn't stack up economically to buy solar panels.
Unfortunately, everyone who buys a solar system tries in vain to justify to everyone who will listen that it is a good move from a money perspective. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Hi wylie,
This is the reason why solar hasn't taken off.
Even at a risk free, unleveraged 5% p.a. bank deposit rate, you could have preserved your 12.5K capital and received $ 156 in interest for the 90 days.
Obviously, exposing the same amount of capital to a prudent amount of risk and a sensible leverage would see the returns easily outperform the solar panel returns.
I understand people purchase these for the feel good factor, and that's great, but it certainly doesn't stack up economically to buy solar panels.
Unfortunately, everyone who buys a solar system tries in vain to justify to everyone who will listen that it is a good move from a money perspective. Nothing could be further from the truth.
...and that's in year 1.
In 15 years time when the system is stuffed / rusted / cracked / conks out and your capital has gone and you need to inject further amounts of capital to replace it, that is when the solar industry is really exposed as a greeny feel good thing, and nothing more.
Everyone looks at the lowered opex, and deliberately ignores both the opportunity cost of the capex and the large back end capex required to continue having slightly lower opex charges.
For it to work, supply charges will need to come down dramatically, as well as installation and commissioning costs. With Australian labour components in most of those 3 areas, I won't hold my breath for any major downward movements.....and hence the solar industry will be a dead duck for a good while yet.
Hi Dazz. Its a bit misleading to compare yield returns without considering taxation imo.
You seemed to ignore my further statement, that with a sensible amount of risk applied, and a sensible amount of leverage, the return on capital applied could easily achieve greater returns than what solar panels deliver.
I don't see any large investor (company or individual) throwing huge amounts at this type of "investment".....as the numbers simply don't stack up.
The discounted cashflow models which make the back end capex requirements of solar seem irrelevant in today's money won't be in 20 years time.
Those who chose to pay thru the roof (literally) and installed old inefficient panels back in the early 90's have now lost their capital completely, and if they wish to continue with their yield, will now have to spend another large amount of capital to replace their rusted / stuffed units.
arms - I guess it's an old argument because, like politics, you only see what you want to see. Selectively viewing mathematical numbers is a nonsense. There is no personal opinion with maths.
I understand entirely your points of potential opportunity cost of capital and the potential of future costs to add to the cost base of the solar investment as the system depreciates. They are quite valid and would need to be taken into consideration.
But I feel the risk that needs to be undertaken to achieve a Real Return of 6.28% from direct property or shares would far outweigh the risks associated with the solar system that wylie has. I would go so far as to say the vast majority of people are simply incapable of actually achieving that level of return in there investing endeavours. You could be an exception
RandR - in your comparison of benefits, don't forget that the hot water system has a limited life. A deposit in a bank does not. That's what the "benefit" of depreciation is about.
I don't know the likely life so I couldn't say. But a lifetime of say, perhaps optimistically, 20 years, reduces the numbers you mention by 5% pa.
I wash at night (used to do that mostly anyway) and I'm running the pool filter at night. I also run the dishwasher at night (used to do that too mostly).
So we have not changed too much except to tweak a few things.
The solar system is only generating during the day. This is when you need to be consuming the power.
I am sure you have the experience/knowledge and means to be able to do so. The majority of people (imo) seem incabable of actually realizing any return.
Just because you cant see any potential for acceptable returns from this area doesnt mean they aren't there Dazz
Personally I know someone who has invested a considerable sum of money into solar PV, and done so quite succesfully.
Fwiw alot of PV panels come with 25 year performance output warranties, according to manufacturers the efficiency tends to trend downwards after that time period.
The solar system is only generating during the day. This is when you need to be consuming the power.
Best to let it feed back into the grid during the day and get paid for it and then use things during the night to use off peak power. We were getting the PFIT at 66c and only paying about 11c for off peak so used power as little as possible during the day. This is one thing many don't understand about maximising the benefits of solar.
Not much use to those on the new crappy FIT though.