Solar Panels for IPs?!

[RandR]

So more than 9 out of every 10 households are utterly unconvinced....

About 11% of people vote for the Greens as well.....or conversely, 89% of all Australians do not.

The numbers for both seem to match up quite well....as expected.

The whole concept in it's present form (technologically / contractually) is a dead duck.....but it makes those 11% feel really good....and that's the main thing from their point of view.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBRKPoAPXEQ&list=UU2UqtQAPcmYah01ZrkVuXZQ&index=7&feature=plcp

 

[mikew]

So more than 9 out of every 10 households are utterly unconvinced....

I know you're joking here, no one could jump to such an utterly naive conclusion.

 

[mikew]

Mike
BTW you're from Perth and in the solar business. What do you estimate is the current return on investment for a quality typical residential solar system bought today in Perth? It would be interesting to see your numbers...

You can buy a good quality 1.5kW system (SMA inverter, Suntech/REC/ET panels) for less than $3000. It will average 7 units/day. Avoided cost is 7 x .25 x 365 = $638/year.

 

[HiEquity]

You can buy a good quality 1.5kW system (SMA inverter, Suntech/REC/ET panels) for less than $3000. It will average 7 units/day. Avoided cost is 7 x .25 x 365 = $638/year.

Looks pretty good - if it was true!

Unfortunately you have a neat little assumption hidden there, which is that the residence maintains a load of 1.5kW at all times during the day, in which case the solar panels are offsetting the cost of importing power - about 25c per unit. Of course many people who work for a living have very little daytime load due to being at work - they might just leave the fridge running at home, in which case they would get to mainly enjoy the REBS buyback rate of 8.5c per unit instead.

That makes a pretty big difference to the figures!

I hope you point out the difference to your customers...

 

[mikew]

Looks pretty good - if it was true!

Unfortunately you have a neat little assumption ...

I hope you point out the difference to your customers...

You asked a simple question, I gave you a simple answer, now you're calling me a liar. WTF?

I gave you the math, pure and simple, on the simple case that you asked for.

You didn't ask for the case when no one is at home during the day. If there's no one home of course it's going work out differently.

(BTW the Perth average consumption is about 20 units per day.)

There's a lot of other 'neat little assumptions' that I run through with my customers too.

Yes, one of the first things I ask customers is will they be able to consume the solar power generated? They might be out at work, but maybe they can have air/con and or other devices switched on by timers?

There's dozens of other situations where the numbers don't stack up, so don't try and be smart and come back saying, yeah but what about such and such a situation; like I mentioned in my first post, it is entirely dependent on individual circumstances.

 

[mikew]

.. which is that the residence maintains a load of 1.5kW at all times during the day

??

Most of the solar power is generated in the middle of the day, between 10am and 3pm, so that's when you want to be able to consume the solar power to make it more viable.

 

[HiEquity]

You asked a simple question, I gave you a simple answer, now you're calling me a liar. WTF?

I gave you the math, pure and simple, on the simple case that you asked for.

You didn't ask for the case when no one is at home during the day. If there's no one home of course it's going work out differently.

(BTW the Perth average consumption is about 20 units per day.)

There's a lot of other 'neat little assumptions' that I run through with my customers too.

Yes, one of the first things I ask customers is will they be able to consume the solar power generated? They might be out at work, but maybe they can have air/con and or other devices switched on by timers?

There's dozens of other situations where the numbers don't stack up, so don't try and be smart and come back saying, yeah but what about such and such a situation; like I mentioned in my first post, it is entirely dependent on individual circumstances.

I didn't call you a liar. I just said the numbers look good to me if they are true. Just pointing out that for some (many) people they aren't true. Whereas your post made it sound like it was a no brainer for everybody.

BTW 20 units is average "day and night' and we both know that most of that consumption is usually during the shoulder where there is next to no power being generated from the PV system. And 20 units per day is pretty wasteful electricity consumption in the first place.

I find it a bit perverse that the incentive and advice is to effectively increase electricity use during the day so as to get the most benefit from the tariffs. Personally, I would just advise people to put the same amount of effort into reducing their electricity consumption, which avoids the need for the PV system in the first place. I see an awful lot of untapped potential there.

Anyway, I wish you well with your business. Are you an SEA member? I can recommend it...

 

[mikew]

It's clear what you said.

However I agree that energy efficiency should come first, and that is always part of my discussion with customers.

 

[Sunfish]

Don't hold me to the details [I've never been interested enough to find out for sure] but it seems that the new régime in Qld says that your home generation must all be sold back to the grid @ w'sale price [abt. 8c] and your consumption must be bought @ retail.

Sounds unfair, don't it! The generator's logic is that the difference between w'sale and retail is to maintain their distribution network, and the fact that you generate some power yourself doesn't materially effect the cost of maintaining their grid.

Valued this way, the economics FAIL.

 

[Sheryn]

The solar system is only generating during the day. This is when you need to be consuming the power.

Agree, this is where our daughter ran into trouble she installed a 2kw to reduce her power bills rather than just a 1kw, solar makes power during day while she is at work.

Then at night time when she uses power she is charged, sad part about this is the electricity supplier origin sisd she would only be charged above what she makes during the day but this is not what is occurring.

Generates solar electricity and paid 8c during day.
Uses electricity and is charged approximately 30c (not sure of current NSW rate as in WA)

Should be IMHO make 1.5 kw and use 1.5 kw per day = no charge other than service fee.

QLD sytem and charges are different as son installed 3kw last year and recently added another 2kw system as working well for him.


Regards
Sheryn

 

[mikew]

For QLD'ers there's a good thread here: http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-replies.cfm?t=1745092

 

[Sunfish]

QLD sytem and charges are different as son installed 3kw last year and recently added another 2kw system as working well for him.


Regards
Sheryn

I think my neighbour is related to Al Gore: His qtrly bill can run over a grand [this was in the days of "cheap" power]. Rather than cut back, he extended his shed and put 22 cells on the roof. And he's smart! The shed which didn't even have a bar fridge in it, is separately metered so he will sell ALL of his generation back to the grid at the price offered at the time, 44c.

When the states cease feeding the rorts, PV generation will "DIE! you *******s DIE!"

 

[Dazz]

There's dozens of other situations where the numbers don't stack up, so don't try and be smart and come back saying, yeah but what about such and such a situation;

Whoops !! Gotta warn you mikew before you wander too far down the Somersoft trail....

This place is absolutely choka-blok full of nit-picking pedants who can cite every known little exception to every known supposed rule.

Trying to be smart with smarmy little comebacks is a full-time occupation for some folks on here. Attempting to stop them just eggs 'em on even further.

Welcome - enjoy !!

 

[Dazz]

I know you're joking here, no one could jump to such an utterly naive conclusion.

The maths doesn't lie.

Nearly 1 in 10 have decided to purchase and install solar panels.

A rock solid conclusion is that more than 9 out of 10 have not. Happy to argue that all day...

I've been called many things in my time....and no doubt will collect loads more in my lifetime. Naive is a new one, but I'm more than happy to wear the badge. Thank you.

 

[Edmond Dantes]

.... I'm not really concerned with how much power the cells will generate, more to do with the artful way of selling the benefit to a tenant to extract more rent.

This was a question in the very first reply of this thread. Do you think tenants will pay extra rent because of solar panels?

I doubt it..

 

[mikew]

The maths doesn't lie.

Nearly 1 in 10 have decided to purchase and install solar panels.

A rock solid conclusion is that more than 9 out of 10 have not. Happy to argue that all day...

I've been called many things in my time....and no doubt will collect loads more in my lifetime. Naive is a new one, but I'm more than happy to wear the badge. Thank you.

Hi Dazz thanks the heads up. I'm sure the locals aren't a bad bunch really.

I agree 9 out of ten have not got solar.

I disagreed that "9 out of every 10 households are utterly unconvinced".

It's not like they have all crunched the numbers and decided against it - there are myriad reasons why a household may not have it. I have spoken to renters for example who would love to have it but are not able to, although they are convinced of the merits of the system. There's around 1/3 of households right there. Many more don't have suitable roof space. Some have too much shade. Many have other priorities, etc.

You might buy an investment unit but the fact that I didn't doesn't mean I am unconvinced that it's a good investment.

 

[mikew]

This was a question in the very first reply of this thread. Do you think tenants will pay extra rent because of solar panels?

I doubt it..

It just needs to be sold as a feature of the property. But as has been pointed out, if they aren't going to be able to utilise that feature then no, they won't like to pay extra for it.

But given 2 identical properties, same rent, except 1 has solar power, which one would you take?

 

[HiEquity]

When the states cease feeding the rorts, PV generation will "DIE! you *******s DIE!"

Plenty of states have finished the rorts. WA is just one example - Qld is another. But yet plenty of solar systems are still being sold in both states, just not quite as many as before. Recently, the declining cost of PV systems has almost keep pace with the reduction in rorts! The subsidies that remain in WA and Qld are more in the category of a slap and tickle rather than a full scale rort IMO.

PV prices have collapsed recently. In the large scale sector where I play, prices are one quarter of what they were five years ago. If they halve again (and that doesn't take much...) we are below the current real cost of daytime fossils (circa 8c per kWh). FRV recently won the Canberra auction with a 20 year offtake price of circa 18c/unit unindexed to inflation according to news reports. A figure indexed to inflation would be well below this number.

I can see this last price reduction happening in about 10 years time but in the meantime the cost of the fossils keeps increasing so I suspect crossover will actually come realistically in 5-7 years time. Many are calling 2016 but that sounds optimistic to me - the rate of price reduction in PV has to slow down a bit. But those calling 2016 have far greater credibility than myself.

Either way, there is no way solar is dying from where I'm sitting. The economies of scale combined with the improvements in technology have yielded massive cost reductions in the price of PV and to a lesser extent solar thermal. For that we have to thank the German, Spanish, US, Japanese, Chinese and (to a tiny extent) Australian rort programs!

There is no turning back now... but equally there are no PV panels on my roof just yet!

 

[HiEquity]

But given 2 identical properties, same rent, except 1 has solar power, which one would you take?

The one where the landlord sends me a card and a basket of choccies at Christmas of course!

Sorry mikew - that one's a bit of a standing joke around here...

 

[The Y-man]

Get with it people, get a Gen4 (formerly Hyperion) module and bury it in your back yard

http://www.gen4energy.com/

http://gigaom.com/cleantech/hyperions-nuclear-in-a-box-ready-by-2013/

The Y-man